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Spring 2010 Issue


    1. Prediction Markets for Forecasting Drug Development by Andraes Graefe
      With this issue, we begin a new column on prediction markets, an increasingly widespread mechanism for aggregating predictions from dispersed individuals. Column Editor Andreas Graefe will keep you apprised of new developments in the field and how likely these are to succeed. For an introduction to prediction markets and analysis of the conditions that underpin successful implementation, see our feature section, “Prediction Markets for Pharmaceutical Forecasting and Beyond,” in the Spring 2008 issue of Foresight.
    2. A DEFT Approach to Trend-Based Foresight by Adam Gordon
      Trend projection is a critical element of most forecasting models. Automatic forecasting methods typically glean trends from past data and extrapolate these trends forward, but do so without consideration of the forces that nurture the trend – and that eventually may turn on it. Adam Gordon’s DEFT framework helps you probe behind the trend to identify the underlying Drivers, Enablers, Friction, and Turners.
    3. Software Review: Free Open-Source Forecasting Using R by Stephan Kolassa and Rob Hyndman
      Neelie Kroes, while antitrust commissioner for the EU, said, “In the current economic context, all companies are looking for cost-effective IT solutions. Systems based on open-source software are increasingly emerging as viable alternatives to proprietary solutions.” Stephan Kolassa and Rob Hyndman provide their evaluation of whether R, an open-source statistical computing environment, can be used for forecasting. They compare it favorably to professionally produced and quality controlled commercial software.
    4. Forecast Process Design Part 3: Change Management and the Forecasting Challenge by Joe Smith
      Welcome to the final article of our three-part series by Joe Smith on forecast process design. Now, in Part 3, Joe discusses managing change and the challenges ofsteering an organization to a new forecast process design.
    5. Hot New Research Column: Why Hindsight Can Damage Foresight by Paul Goodwin
    6. Sales and Operations Planning Resolving a Family Feud: Market-Facing versus Lean Manufacturing Families by Robert Stahl and William Kerber
      Two very important business processes are Lean Manufacturing and Executive S&OP. Both processes require grouping products into families but for very different uses, so there is a sharp difference between how each process defines a family. In this column, Bob Stahl and Bill Kerber show how to resolve the family feud by converting market forecasts into production requirements.
    7. Forecaster in the Field: Adam Gordon, author of Future Savvy
    8. Book Reviews by Carolyn Allmon
      Business Forecasting: A Practical, Comprehensive Resource for Managers and Practitioners by Robert A. Krueger
      Strategic Business Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Shaping the Future of Your Business by Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar
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