The IIF Summer School is a two-day course which provides in-depth analysis on a cutting edge topic in forecasting offered by an invited speaker at the International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF). The Summer School shares the same venue as the ISF. If you have questions, contact Laurent Ferrara,  IIF Director.

7th Forecasting Summer School ~ Bayesian Forecasting

Instructors:
Francesco Ravazzolo, Professor of Econometrics, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
Magdalena Ivanovska, Assistant professor, BI Norwegian Business School
Location: Dijon Exhibition and Convention Centre, France
Dates: June 29-30, 2024

The deadline for applications is April 3, 2024.

Forecasting Summer School Application

Complete this form and upload your CV or resume.

  • Personal Information

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About the Instructors

Francesco Ravazzolo is Full Professor of Econometrics at Faculty of Economics and Management at Free University of Bozen-Bolzano and Head of the Department of Data Science and Analytics at BI Norwegian Business School. He is also co-founder of AIAQUA and COMMODIA.  His research focuses on commodity markets, data anlytics, econometrics, energy economics, financial econometrics and macroeconometrics. He has published in several leading academic journals.

Magdalena Ivanovska is Assistant Professor at the Department of Data Science and Analytics, BI Norwegian Business School. She holds a doctoral degree in computer science from the University of Oslo and a master´s degree in mathematics from Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje.

Schedule

Saturday – Sunday, June 29-30, 2024 (9am-4pm, tbd)
The course will take place in-person only.

Course details

  1. Review of Bayesian inference estimation (2 hours)
    • Bayes Theorem
    • Linear regression model
  1. Bayesian Network and Graphical Models (2 hours)
    • Bayesian networks and graphical models
    • Inference, modelling and probabilistic forecasting
  1. Time-series models (2 hours)
    • Introduction to AR, VAR and Panel VAR models
    • How to compute point and density forecasts from Monte Carlo draws
  1. Forecasting with Bayesian (multivariate) models (4 hours)
    • Evaluation of forecasts
    • Applications to energy, finance, and macroeconomics
  1. Density forecast combinations (4 hours)
    • Bayesian model averaging
    • Extension to time-varying combination weights and learning
    • Combinations of large data sets
    • Parallel computation

Registration rates (USD)

Type Rate
IIF member $195
Non-member $295
Students $25

Notes on Registration

• To become a member of the IIF, join here

• Cancellation policy: No refunds after June 1st; in case of summer school cancellation, the IIF liability will be limited to a refund of the registration fee only

Past Programs

2023 Modeling and Forecasting the International Dimensions: Business cycles, exchange rates, and cross-border capital and trade flows Menzie David Chinn
2022 Machine learning techniques for forecasting: perspectives and limitations Gianluca Bontempi (virtual)
2022 Machine learning techniques for forecasting Tim Januschowski and Nikolaos Kourentzes (in-person)
2021 Nowcasting & Models for Mixed Frequency Data Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University
2020 Renewable Energy Forecasting Henrik Madsen, Technical University of Denmark
2019 Probabilistic Forecasting Tilmann Gneiting, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies
2018 Economic Forecasting David Hendry, University of Oxford