FORESIGHT Issue 71

Description

2023:Q4

In Memoriam: Tributes to John Boylan

This issue opens with remembrances of longtime colleague and friend, John Boylan. Twenty tributes in this issue bear evidence of John’s lasting impact. Len Tashman and Mike Gilliland recap John’s many contributions to Foresight.

Special Feature ~ Forecast Value Added – A Critical Retrospective

This section looks back on the adoption, use, and impact of the Forecast Value Added (FVA) framework. It shares the motivation for FVA, addressing misconceptions about the approach, and explores problematic scenarios and criticisms. Jeff Baker and Stefan de Kok present extensions of the FVA framework, Fazlur Rahman and Marina Sologubova cover FVA uses in industry, and Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, and Shari De Baets discuss the latest research on judgmental forecasting.

Special Feature ~ The Current State and Future Direction of Forecasting Software

What are the issues with current forecasting software, and where will AI take us over the next generations? Consultants and vendors Anne-Flore Elard (Kinaxis), Johann Robette (Vekia), Gareth Thomas (EViews), and Spiros Potamitis, Michele Trovero, and Joe Katz (SAS) offer their perspectives. Oliver Schaer, Ivan Svetunkov, and Robert Fildes provide a recap of forecasting software surveys.

Book Reviews

• Robert Fildes explores Escape from Model Land by Erica Thompson, whose thesis is that all too often the model’s users mistake the model they are presented with for the underlying reality. This error has serious consequences, primarily a failure to evaluate possible prediction errors, resulting in planning mistakes.
• George Karamatzanis and Kostas Nikolopoulos see The Scientific Method by Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green as an essential read for scientists and the public. The book promotes the use of scientific practice to navigate the vast amount of information available and the prevalence of disinformation to find and disseminate helpful knowledge.

Spotlights

• Foresight’s Column Editor for Judgmental Forecasting (and Assistant Professor at the Open University of the Netherlands) Shari De Baets conveys her interests in research and photography, and recounts how the stormy weather at ISF2018 in Boulder led to her deeper engagement with the IIF.
• Longtime Foresight Advisory Board member Joe McConnell (of McConnell Chase Software) gives an update on his new software platform and discusses how hockey has played a big part in his life, including how Wayne Gretzky’s playing style had a major role in helping Joe define the kind of software needed in business.

Opinion-Editorial

• Stephan Kolassa considers four aspects of the relationship between forecasting and sustainability.
• Ira Sohn addresses looming infrastructure issues and the risks to economic growth, calling for comprehensive long-term forecasts of U.S. infrastructure requirements.