FORESIGHT, Issue 60

Description

Winter 2021

Special Feature

Maximizing Forecast Value Added through Machine Learning and “Nudges” by Jeff Baker
Is it possible to determine in advance whether a certain action will add enough value to justify its cost? This is the question addressed in our feature article. The author applies machine-learning methods to predict the FVA of a judgmental override from the characteristics of the override—its direction and size—along with the forecastability of the series. The article introduces several new constructs: the threshold FVA, the dispersion-scaled override, and the use of nudges rather than rigid rules to prompt forecasters to consider the desirability of overriding a statistical forecast. Robert Fildes and Michael Gilliland provide Commentaries.

Articles

1. Hot New Research Column: How to Harness the Wisdom of Crowds by Paul Goodwin
2. A Peek at the Next Century: Population Projections to 2100 and Their Economic and Geopolitical Consequences by Ira Sohn
3. Can We Profit from Trading on Predictions of High-Low Stock Prices? by Clive Jones
4. The M5 Accuracy Competition and the Future of Human Expertise in Forecasting by Spyros Makridakis and Evangelos Spiliotis
5. The UFO Project: Initial Survey Results by Spyros Makridakis, Ellen Bonnell, Simon Clarke, Robert Fildes, Michael Gilliland, James Hoover and Len Tashman
   In 2020, a group of practitioners and academics began discussions about the practical challenges facing the forecasting field and the need to learn why many organizations have not exploited advances in forecasting knowledge and technology.