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Predicting Medical Risks and Appreciating Uncertainty by Spyros Makridakis, Ann Wakefield, and Richard Kirkham
In this paper, the authors present a number of specific examples related to risk and uncertainty in the context of clinical decision making—some more than a little alarming—including extremely high incidences of misdiagnosis, reluctance on the part of medical professionals to abandon treatment regimens that are doing patients no good and may be causing harm, and systemic flaws in medical research methodology that can impede important new data from reaching practitioners.
Commentaries by John P.A. Ioannidis and Nassim Nicholas Taleb