FORESIGHT, Issue 51

Description

Fall 2018

Special Features

1. A Blueprint for Selecting and Implementing a Forecasting Support System by Matthias Lütke Entrup and Dennis Goetjes
   The authors have laid out a five-step “structured process to assist the small and medium-size company to identify, select, and implement a system that meets particular requirements and fulfills its potential.” The first installment focused on the identification of company requirements and provider capabilities. In Part 2, they examine considerations over the selection of a provider and implementation of the chosen system, including contract negotiation, system specification, testing and refinement, development of a pilot, and, ultimately, rollout.

2. Deep Learning for Forecasting by Tim Januschowski, Jan Gasthaus, Yuyang Wang, Syama Sundar Rangapuram, and Laurent Callot
   This first of two installments of an article from Tim Januschowski and colleagues presents a tutorial on the basics of Deep Learning (DL) with illustrations of how it has been applied for forecasting Amazon product sales and other variables. The second installment explores current trends and challenges in applying DL to forecasting problems.

3. Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence by Spyros Makridakis
   This five-part series on Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence began in our Fall 2017 issue. Spyros focuses here on the future, citing 10 technological trends he predicts will have a profound influence on all of us. Some are being felt already, while others now appear as part of the wildest science-fiction plot imaginable. Incredible as some of these predictions seem today, we must remember that a miscalculation of many futurists in days past has been to underestimate the exponential changes that have already materialized.

Articles

1. Warning Signs for Forecasting Consumer-Induced Shortages by John Mello, Melodie Philhours and Katie Hill
   In this case study of recent ammunition shortages, the authors offer insights into the consumer mentality that led to “panic buying” and subsequent loss of product availability. They recommend ways in which companies can anticipate potential product runs and adequately prepare to meet them.
2. The State of New-Product Forecasting by Kenneth Kahn and Charles Chase
   As the authors observe, new-product forecasting has long been a problematic and challenging area. In this article, they assess the state of the practice from their recent survey completed by 100 companies and describe emerging approaches that are showing promise for significantly upgrading forecasting performance for these products. They offer several prescriptions for how a company should go about establishing an effective new-product forecasting process.
3. Book Review by Fotios Petropoulos
   Profit from Your Forecasting Software by Paul Goodwin