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Winter 2013


  1. Forecasting to Meet Demand by Roland Martin and Stephan Kolassa 
    Misforecasting demand will cost profits and threaten reputations, market share, and even the business itself. Roland Martin and Stephan Kolassa draw on their expertise with retail companies to examine the major challenges for demand forecasting and the choices the demand forecaster must make. Their consideration of the options provides a valuable guidepost to the demand forecaster in measuring demand, handling questionable data, making adjustments to automatic forecasts, and choosing appropriate performance metrics.
  2. How to Separate Risk from Uncertainty in Strategic Forecasting by Christian Schafer 
    Christian Schäfer takes us on a tour through pharmacological forecasting of the market potential for a new drug. En route, we’ll see how risk and uncertainty are defined and made operational. Christian also offers pertinent examples of graphical representations that are effective for instructing senior management about the uncertainty surrounding drug forecasts – information that is crucial to executive decision-making.
  3. The Role of S&OP in a Sluggish Economy by Jane Lee 
    Economic forecasters have often been criticized for failing to predict the magnitude – or even the occurrence – of severe economic downturns. But even had they gotten the forecasts right, it isn’t at all certain that businesses would have reacted appropriately in adjusting their targets and plans to the new reality. Jane Lee now provides us with a prescription for facing the reality of downward adjustments, utilizing the S&OP process for gaining buy-in on new forecasts, new plans, and new production and inventory targets.
  4. S&OP: Five Steps to Gaining Necessary and Appropriate Buy-in by Jason Boorman 
    Jason Boorman manages a highly successful S&OP process – but, as he notes in this article, getting it up and running wasn’t easy. Jason describes the five critical steps that paved the way for his effective S&OP implementation.
  5. GIS: A Missing Tool for Supply Chain Design by Jeff Greer
    Jeff Greer, VP of Operations for KVH Industries, supports a global supply chain for satellite communications equipment. In this role, he has developed expertise in enhancing supply-chain performance with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. KVH has used his pioneering GIS model to facilitate executive thinking about growth strategies and improved supply-chain performance. In this piece, Jeff tells us how any company might benefit from GIS and surveys available GIS solutions – from free downloads to more pricey consulting.
  6. Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote by Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, and Alfred G. Cuzán
  7. Book Review by David Orrell
    The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t
    , Nate Silver
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