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Fall 2010 Issue

Special Feature: The Boundaries of Statistical Forecasting

  • The Boundaries of Quantitative Forecasting Methods: Respecting the Limits of Determinism by Adam Gordon
    In this Foresight feature article, Adam Gordon distills the lessons we have been learning about the limitations of quantitative forecasting models. He reminds us that the challenges of prediction are daunting and that forecasters should not plunge ahead with quant models without assessing the level of uncertainty inherent in the forecasting environment. Read on for a reality check.
  • Commentaries:
    • In Some Ways the Situation is Even Worse, David Orrell
    • The View from a Quantitative Forecaster, Geoff Allen
    • The Limitations of Quant Models: Compared to What? Mark Little


    1. Executive S&OP: Managing to Achieve Consensus by Bob Stahl
      Bob Stahl continues his series of columns on Executive S&OP with his framework for managing the final two steps of the five-step S&OP process, the Pre-Meeting and the Executive Meeting. Visit his earlier columns in Foresight for case studies of the demand-planning and supply-planning steps.
    2. Are Prediction Markets More Accurate than Simple Surveys? by Andreas Graefe
      In this new installment of the prediction markets column, Andreas Graefe summarizes the evidence he has uncovered on whether the design and implementation of a prediction market is worth the extra cost and effort involved, compared to a simple survey of the judgment of key individuals.
    3. U.S. Annual Energy Outlook 2010 reviewed by Ira Sohn
    4. Book Review by Ulrich Kuesters
      The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating, Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions by Mike Gilliland  [includes Forecaster in the Field: Mike Gilliland]
    5. Hot New Research: The Holt-Winters Approach to Exponential Smoothing: 50 Years Old and Going Strong by Paul Goodwin


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