FORESIGHT, Issue 12

Description

Winter 2009 Issue

Special Feature: Forecast Process Improvement

• The Forecasting Mantra: A Holistic Approach to Forecasting and Planning by Alec Finney and Martin Joseph
  Applying decades of experience in pharmaceutical forecasting, Alec Finney and Martin Joseph offer a template for steering the forecasting and planning process through organizational pitfalls to a successful outcome. Some lessons were learned the hard way; but aren’t these lessons the most convincing?
• Sales Forecasting: Improving Cooperation Between the Demand People and the Supply People by Tom Wallace and Bob Stahl
  In this selection from their book Sales Forecasting: A New Approach, Tom Wallace and Bob Stahl identify some all-too-common beliefs (“gripes and myths”) that can impede cooperation and consensus building in an organization’s forecasting process. Here they prescribe some remedies for bettering the working relationships between demand folks and supply folks, thus enhancing the effectiveness of the forecasting process.
• Book review by John Mello and Joseph McConnell
  Sales & Operations Planning – Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies by John Dougherty and Christopher Gray

Articles

• 1. The World of Forecasting – Predicting Recessions: A Regression (Probit) Model Approach by Peter Sephton
     Forecasting recessions is fraught with difficulties: we never know if we are in recession until long after one has started. This makes it all the more important to try to predict in advance the likelihood of recession, so that businesses can plan accordingly. Peter takes us inside the economist’s crystal ball, identifying key indicators of economic recession and how they can be combined into a predictive model. The model forecasts a difficult 2009.
  2. Hot New Research Column – New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts by Paul Goodwin
  3. Forecast Accuracy Measurement
     • Percentage Error Metrics: What denominator? by Kesten Green and Len Tashman
     • Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote by Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzan and Randall Jones
     • Forecasting Performance of Regression Models in the 2008 Presidential Election by Randall Jones and Alfred Cuzan