Retrospective
This issue opens with a farewell retrospective from Foresight Advisory Board member Steve Morlidge. In his article “Failing to Pay Attention to Error: Our Greatest Error,” Steve recounts his contributions to Foresight and reflects on his interactions with the academic, software, and practitioner communities.
Special Feature ~ Forecast Value Added (FVA) Critique and Commentaries
Conor Doherty evaluates the assumptions underlying FVA. Jeff Baker, Stefan de Kok, Igor Gusakov, Marina Sologubova, and Nicolas Vandeput provide commentaries on his thought-provoking critique.
Forecast Modeling
Christoph Bergmeir examines the current state and prospects of LLMs and foundational time series models. In his article “LLMs and Foundational Models: Not (Yet) as Good as Hoped,” he sees great potential but disagrees with what some of the research papers and hype suggest.
Tutorial
Ken Fordyce discusses multiple linear regression in Part 2 of his tutorial series “Linear Regression with a Time Series View.”
Prediction Markets
In his article “The Accuracy of Prediction Markets,” Thomas Wolfram follows up his Issue 54 article on corporate prediction markets (PMs) with a new analysis of PM accuracy utilizing large datasets from the IARPA project.
Book Reviews
- Robert Fildes reviews Judgment in Predictive Analytics edited by Matthias Seifert.
- Ira Sohn reviews Igor Tulchinsky and Christopher E. Mason’s The Age of Prediction.
Spotlight
Eric Stellwagen of Business Forecast Systems in Waltham, Massachusetts, talks about his forecasting background, software development, involvement with the IIF and Foresight, and hobbies.
Minitutorial
Stephan Kolassa provides a minitutorial on interactions in forecasting.
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