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2026:Q3 In this Issue

Diagnosing Forecast Adjustment Behavior: A Three-Pathway Framework

Francis Martinson, Daniel Osei Ofosu, and Francisca Martinson propose a framework for distinguishing cognitive errors from legitimate corrective intervention and incentive-driven behaviors.

Special Feature: Commentaries on Spyros Makridakis’s Forecasting the Impact of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Commentaries

  1. Robert Fildes considers the barriers to AGI diffusion, and argues there are more than just the “greatest partner” and “greatest peril” scenarios that Spyros proposed.
  2. Nikolaos Kourentzes reacts to both Robert and Spyros, discussing how AI and AGI will change the economy and societies.
  3. Azul Garza and Renée Rosillo discuss societal implications, asking forecasters to challenge the assumptions embedded in our models about whose data counts and whose future matters. They implore us to make a critical examination of the institutional systems that shape technological trajectories.
  4. Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi examines AGI in the context of the technological “singularity” that Ray Kurzweil posited in 2005.
  5. Mostafa Bakr, a finalist in the 2026 IIF Impact Award competition, shows how the ability of economies to absorb increasingly automated production can impact the trajectory of AGI.
  6. Davis Wu argues that society should take advantage of what is currently available through agentic AI, rather than waiting for the big bang of AGI.

Transforming Demand Planning with Agentic AI

Davis Wu expands upon his Makridakis commentary with a full article on how to transform demand planning with agentic AI.

Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification

Since real-world data often violate the normal distribution assumptions, conformal prediction provides an alternative offering: a distribution-free approach to uncertainty quantification. Matteo Fontana provides a tutorial on this promising approach.

Spotlights

  • Interview with Jonathon Karelse
  • Interview with Viktoriia Khorolska