This issue begins with a special feature section on collaborative forecasting, led by an article from Pierre Pinson, Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Forecasting. In To Share or Not to Share? The Future of Collaborative Forecasting, Pierre explores the potentially valuable use of data that flows from different sources and possibly different owners. But getting top value from distributed data requires a paradigm shift in how collaboration occurs between the data owners and those wishing to access the data. Pierre’s feature article is followed by four commentaries.
- Niels van Hove discusses the Asymmetry of Data Ownership, concluding that altruistic data sharing will occur only in limited situations, and that most organizations seeking access to data will have to pay for it.
- Robert Stevens writes of the Legal Ramifications and FVA of Data Sharing, bringing up the notion of “data exhaust” – the information by-products gathered in the course of a company’s normal business. Even when the legal issues around ownership are resolved, there is still the challenge of pricing the data. For this, Rob suggests using the FVA framework to assess the improvement in forecast accuracy attributable to the data, and thereby establish its price.
- Ram Ganeshan expands on Pierre’s article to imagine how these new collaborative tools can improve the supply chain performance of all entities. His Federated Data and Learning in the Supply Chains discusses both the advantages and pitfalls of collaborative mechanisms.
- Sujit Singh agrees with the appeal of collaboration among organizations, and in Third-Party Data Providers gives an example of a consortium of 50 companies aimed at reducing the problem of plastic waste.
We review two books this issue, starting with Jonathon Karelse’s Histories of the Future reviewed by Mark Little. This book is found to be an enjoyable read, providing an excellent and fascinating summary of the history of business forecasting.
In the second review, Foresight Advisory Board member Lawrence Vanston adds another perspective on Katy Börner’s Atlas of Forecasts, which had been reviewed in Issue 66 by Ira Sohn. While concurring with praise of the book’s overall elegance of production, Larry notes that it actually has little to say about forecasting as most Foresight readers know it. Rather, it is really about modeling and the visual display of data.
Our forecasting practice section features Nikolaos Kourentzes’ Toward a One-Number Forecast: Cross-Temporal Hierarchies. Building upon the one-number forecasting article by Simon Clarke in Issue 65, Nikos shows how to achieve a unified view of the product hierarchy from which various functional forecasts can be derived in a coherent way. A cross-temporal hierarchy delivers reconciliation not merely across products and locations, but over time buckets as well, and this article shows how to build them.
In his commentary The Software Gap, Simon Clarke notes that for practitioners there remains the thorny issue of operationalizing the innovative approaches described by Nikos. In his Reply, Nikos offers an optimistic assessment that progress can be made, while acknowledging that forecasting support system providers are driven by market needs, requiring identification of the most promising takeaways from new research.
Finally, we provide a behind the scenes look at The IIF Forecasting Impact Podcast, authored by podcast hosts and production staff Shari de Baets, Mahdi Abolghasemi, Sarah Van der Auweraer, Anna Sroginis, and Michael Chojnowski. This recap of the first 17 episodes summarizes the “imparted wisdom” of the podcast guests, along with insight into their varied backgrounds, interests, and paths into forecasting.
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