Volume 27 Issue 1 (January-March 2011)

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Group-Based Judgmental Forecasting
edited by George Wright, Gene Rowe

The predictive validity of peer review: A selective review of the judgmental forecasting qualities of peers, and implication

Benda, W.G.G. , Engels, T.C.E.
Pages 166-182

In this review we investigate what the available data on the predictive validity of peer review can add to our understanding of judgmental forecasting. We found that peer review attests to the relative success of judgmental forecasting by experts. Both manuscript and group-based peer review allow, on average, for accurate decisions to be made. However, tension exists between peer review and innovative ideas, even though the latter underlie scientific advance. This points to the danger of biases and preconceptions in judgments. We therefore formulate two proposals for enhancing the likelihood of innovative work.

Keywords: Advice taking , Cognitive bias , Decision-making , Expert advice , Group decision making , Reliability
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