Volume 9 Issue 1 (April-June 1993)

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Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test

Kolb, R.A. , Stekler, H.O.
Pages 117-120
Abstract

Most forecast evaluations do not test whether the predictions are statistically significantly better than naive forecasts. This note describes how an existing test can be used to test the hypothesis that predictions are superior to naive forecasts.

Keywords: Error comparisons , Hypothesis test , Naive model
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(93)90059-V
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