Volume 13 Issue 4 (December-February 1997)

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A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain

Garcia-Ferrer, A. , Queralt, R.A.
Pages 539-549

This paper considers the extent to which price and income proxy variables help in forecasting tourist demand in Spain. Contrary to some recent studies, we found that the inputs' contribution in terms of fitting and forecasting is nil when compared with alternative univariate models. Whether these findings are the results of the restrictions embedded in building the proxy inputs or in a poor specification of the dynamics of these models remains to be seen. We also contend that when dealing with medium, long-term forecasting comparisons, the use of the traditional aggregate accuracy measures like RMSE and MAPE help very little in discriminating among competing models. In these situations, predicted annual growth rates may be a better alternative.

Keywords: Tourism demand , Unobserved components models , Forecasting accuracy measures
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