Volume 13 Issue 4 (December-February 1997)

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Comments on ''An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain'' by P. Gonzalez and P. Moral

Young, P. , Pedregal, D.
Pages 551-556
Abstract

Although the state-space, unobserved component approach to forecasting has many advantages, it must be applied carefully in practice and should not be used in an uncritical, 'black box' fashion. In particular, such an approach to the modelling and forecasting of Spanish tourism data is inappropriate and leads to misleading conclusions, particularly in relation to the uncritical selection and use of explanatory regression variables.

Keywords: Unobserved component models , Structural models , Data-based mechanistic modelling , Tourism forecasting , Nonlinear relationships
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00034-4
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