Electronics industry model: a report on two decades of implementation
In the context of the literature on the implementation of forecasting models, this paper examines the rise and fall of a forecasting company and the evolution of a commercial model for the electronics industry. The model format presents a view of the electronics market as it is perceived among numerous managers and analysts in the industry. Long-term forecasts from three versions of the model, judgement with ratios, input-output, and monthly regression equations are compared. The results indicate that timely data, detailed analysis, and trend forecasts can improve forecasting accuracy, but that problems with implementation strategy can overwhelm model performance.