Alternative forecasts of U.S. school enrollments to 2050 when will a trend bend?
This paper presents alternative forecasts of enrollments in grades K-12 for the period 1980-2050. The forecasts suggest that enrollments will continue to decline in the short run, perhaps by more than is currently recognized. The long-run position is, however, different. By 1995, K-8 enrollment should approximate its 1969 maximum, while by 2000 enrollment in grades 9-12 should be within 5% of its 1976 maximum. These increases will not be uniform across the nation. The most significant increases will occur in the South and West, with enrollments in the Northeast and Atlantic regions at least stabilizing.