FORESIGHT Issue 62

Description

2021:Q3

Special Feature

A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future by J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock
In “A Better Crystal Ball,” Scoblic and Tetlock make a compelling case that current U.S. policy planning, particularly with respect to national security, is famously ineffective while at the same time being unreasonably expensive – the worst of both worlds. Knowing that what Scoblic and Tetlock were recommending would send up a chorus from forecasters far and wide, we put together this special section to include commentaries from a number of notable experts:

1. 1. Scenarios and Probabilities: Incompatible or Complementary? by Paul Goodwin
   2. Risk versus Uncertainty by Steve Morlidge
   3. Scenarios with Probabilities for Financial Forecasting by Roy Batchelor
   4. Probabilistic Scenarios in Demand and Supply Planning by Stefan de Kok
   5. Uncertainty Is the Human Condition by Mike Tremblay
   6. Near-Term Questions for Long-Term Uncertainties by Robert Fildes

Articles

1. Forecasting Demand during COVID — The Case of Wayfair by Alexei Alexandrov, Philip Brooks, I-Chen Lee and George Monokroussos
2. Strategy in Uncertain Times: Lenses to Approach Decision Making, Forecasting, and Planning by Chris Turner
3. Book Review by Stephan Kolassa
   Resurrecting Retail: The Future of Business in a Post-Pandemic World by Doug Stephens