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Winter 2010 Issue


    1. Using Forecasting to Steer the Business: Six Principles by Steve Morlidge
      Based upon his forthcoming book Future Ready: How to Master the Art of Business Forecasting, Steve Morlidge – a finance professional by background – argues here that forecasters need to adopt a broader perspective on the role of strategic forecasting and a longer-range view on forecasts themselves. Steve offers a series of principles that should enable the business to navigate better through troubled waters.
    2. The Forecast Reliability Assurance Model by Joe Smith
      In Part 1 of this series – “The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools,” from the Fall 2009 issue of Foresight – I discussed the contribution of these three ingredients to effective forecast process design.
    3. Assessing Uncertainty in New-Products Forecasts by Nick Guthrie and Des Markland
      Nick and Des discuss an approach implemented at AstraZeneca to forecast the commercial success of new pharmaceutical products. The article is a virtual tutorial for group assessment of the uncertainties for any new product with long development times.
    4. Sales and Operations Planning (2 articles) by Robert Stahl and Amy Mansfield
      Generating item-level forecasts can be complex, time consuming, and frustrating for forecasters, and can produce forecasts so inaccurate that they are not used in the planning process. In this case study of V&M Star, management uses Executive S&OP to refocus its forecasting process to family-level forecasts, which are then converted into resource requirements based on assumptions about product mix. This new approach has allowed V&M Star to gain bottom-line results of improved customer service with reduced inventories.
    5. A Baker’s Dozen Free Sources of Economic Forecasts by Roy Pearson
      In the Summer 2009 issue of Foresight, I described Short-Term Energy Outlook, a report prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration as a source for free national and census-division economic forecasts, available through their Custom Table Builder at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies.
    6. Forecaster in the Field: Steve Morlidge


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