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After many years of inflation below central bank targets in most advanced economies, recent months have seen a resurgence in upward price pressure, generating some concerns among decision-makers and public opinion. The analysis of inflation dynamics and their possible changes over time is a key input in the design of economic policies. Traditionally, the Phillips curve was a cornerstone of many inflation forecasting methods. However, since a decade or even more, inflation seems to have become somewhat disconnected from the business cycle. It turns out that during highly uncertain times coupled with low potential growth and unprecedented low interest rates, forecasting inflation has become an increasing challenge. There is a need to take on board all the lessons we have learned from economic theory in order to improve empirical inflation forecasting.

The workshop papers will address, but not limited to, the following topics:

  • The future of the Phillips curve
  • Modelling the drivers of inflation
  • Inflation density forecasting
  • Commodity prices and inflation
  • Non-linear and time-varying models for inflation
  • Forecasting the risks around inflation
  • Submissions from all areas of inflation forecasting are welcome

The workshop, New Directions for Inflation Forecasting, will take place in Paris, December 16-17, 2021. This 1 ½ day international workshop will bring together experts in the field, both academics and from international institutions. Isabel Vansteenkiste (European Central Bank) and Franck Portier (University College in London) have kindly accepted to deliver keynotes speeches.

Send full papers (in pdf format) to [email protected]. The deadline is October 24, 2021. Authors of accepted papers will be informed by November 7, 2021.

Frédérique Bec, CY Cergy Paris University
Dick van Dijk, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Laurent Ferrara, SKEMA Business School

This workshop will take place on-site at SKEMA Business School, 5 Boulevard Marcel Dassault, 92150 Suresnes, France. It is supported by the International Institute of Forecasters, SKEMA Business School and CY Cergy Paris University (Labex MME-DII).

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