How did you become a forecaster?
I’ve long been interested in election and voting behavior in the US and Europe. Much of my work has focused on explaining how voters make their choices, and why incumbents win or lose elections. Election prediction allows us to test what we know about how electorates behave. And, as a scholar of comparative politics, accounting for different institutional structures, electoral rules, and party systems in different countries presents additional challenges to forecasting. I’m up for that challenge!

What areas of forecasting interest you?
Election forecasting is my area of scholarship, but I’m interested in different areas of forecasting. I find meteorological forecasting fascinating and have written a piece with Michael Lewis-Beck on how meteorology might inform our approaches to election forecasting.

How has the International Institute of Forecasters influenced you?
I’ve served as an associate editor for political forecasting at the International Journal of Forecasting. The cutting-edge research published in the journal is inspiring and has provoked me to consider a broader range of ways to advance election forecasting.

What do you do in your free time?
I’ve always been interested in the world, and right now I’m especially fascinated by Central Asia. I’ve been fortunate to serve as an international election observer with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and those experiences have led me to develop academic programming in the region. I enjoy learning about new places and applying my expertise in ways that benefit my academic field and also the world we live in.

Learn more about Dr. Stegmaier, University of Missouri