The Robots Are Coming—to Make You Creative
William Halal, Owen Davies, and Hassan Syed, TechCast Global
TechCast’s study to estimate changes in jobs to the year 2030.
After forecasting the AI Revolution rather accurately for many years, it’s good to see the recent awareness that AI is really starting to transform industries, entire economic systems, and society itself.
We are less happy to see the general fear that ”The robots are coming to take your jobs!” Studies conclude that roughly half of present jobs could be lost to automation, including even professional work that formerly has been exempt. This, many pundits warn, could lead to mass unemployment and social upheaval. We believe this is overly pessimistic
This article summarizes a forecasting study using collective intelligence to estimate changes in jobs to the year 2030. Results confirm that automation is likely to eliminate about 20 percent of routine jobs. Yet about half of the workers who lose these jobs will find new, and perhaps better, positions in “creative work.” The remainder, about 10 percent of the workforce, are likely to be compensated by a guaranteed minimum income (GMI.) We conclude that a combination of government support and innovative enterprise could absorb the threat of AI and turn it into a new domain of creativity and understanding.