Global Economy Report – January-February 2017

The Global Economy Report is prepared in cooperation by the Macroeconomic Research Division of Banca Aletti and the Global Governance Programme of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies of the European University Institute. The objective of the Report is to provide an analysis of the current and expected macroeconomic and financial conditions at the global level, with also a focus on key economic areas such as Europe, the USA and ASIA.

According to the World Bank experts, international trade stagnation, low investment spending and high political uncertainty determine a prudent outlook on global growth, with downward risks.

  • US income accelerated at 3.5% annualised in the third quarter of the year, thanks to a new upward revision by three tenths of a point, mostly due to private consumption.
  • Macroeconomic data relative to the US continue to be definitely good and robust, overall. In particular, households’ confidence grew at new period highs, supporting consumption. The labour market is solid and close to full employment. Industry is accelerating in a progressively more intense measure. We keep our GDP growth forecast for the next two year period above consensus by around three/four tenths of a point, both in 2017 (2.6%), and in 2018 (3.0%).
  • Inflation is overall increasing, both upstream (at a two year high) and as consumer prices (highest since 2014). Since the beginning of 2017, the trend price growth rate should remain above 2%.
  • In this report we focus on the economic conditions in the United States.

Full Global Economy Report

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