Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: How to Integrate Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts Abstract: Many of us make judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts. But do these improve accuracy? Paul Goodwin explains when you should avoid the temptation to adjust and shows how the accuracy of your interventions can be improved. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-12 Issue: 1 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:8-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dilek Onkal Author-Name: M. Sinan Gonul Title: Judgmental Adjustment: A Challenge for Providers and Users of Forecasts Abstract: Both the providers and the users of forecasts appear to view judgmental adjustments as a sign of caring about the forecast. Although fine tunings are expected to increase practitioner satisfaction, adjustments may sometimes backfire and reduce forecast quality. Dilek and Sinan recommend that practitioners use caution in making adjustments, that they rely on support tools, and that they try to understand the motivations and expectations behind the adjustment process.. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 13-17 Issue: 1 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:13-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nigel Harvey Title: Relative Merits of Different Ways of Combining Judgment with Statistical Forecasts Abstract: Instead of using your judgment to combine judgmental and statistical forecasts, just average them. Also, using your judgment to adjust a statistical forecast is better than modifying your judgmental forecast on the basis of a statistical one. Judgmental adjustment is likely to be more successful if you are a domain expert, if you use decomposition, if more than one person estimates the size of the required adjustment , if you have knowledge not used in the statistical forecast, and if you keep records that allow you to see whether your past adjustments have been too large or too small. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 18-20 Issue: 1 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:18-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-name: Thomas Ross Title: The Sales Forecasting Evolution at Brooks Sports Abstract: In this first Foresight article on implementing new forecasting processes, Tom Ross of Brooks Sports describes the lessons learned in moving from purely judgmental sales forecasts, which were largely ignored by production planners, to forecasts that formally combine the inputs of statistical models, sales representatives, and sales managers. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 24-28 Issue: 1 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:24-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Boylan Title: Intermittent and Lumpy Demand: A Forecasting Challenge Abstract: Slow items with intermittent and lumpy demand patterns can make up a substantial part of an organization's inventory. They are difficult to forecast and some of the most popular forecasting methods are unsuitable. The author describes the principal methods for forecasting intermittent and lumpy demands and shows how to take advantage of recent advances in the field. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-42 Issue: 1 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:36-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: J. Scott Armstrong Title: The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy Abstract: Using findings from empirical-based comparisons, the author presents nine generalizations that can improve forecast accuracy. These are often ignored by organizations, so that attention to them offers substantial opportunities for gain. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-35 Issue: 1 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:29-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Charles W. Chase, Jr. Title: Case Study: Integrating Consumer Demand to Improve Shipments Forecasts Abstract: The consumer-packaged goods industry (CPG) gives high priority to linking forecasts of consumer demand to shipments forecasts, in order to capture the impact of marketing activities on factory shipments. In this case study of a CPG company, Charlie Chase shows how to consider marketing and replenishment strategies jointly rather than individually, Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-46 Issue: 1 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:43-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Title: How to Evaluate the Forecasting Ability of Demand-Planning Software Abstract: In this column, Jim examines the functionality and implementation of demand-planning software, a market that has received very little scrutiny to date in forecasting books and journals. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 47-49 Issue: 1 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:47-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nada Sanders Title: Book Review of Demand Management Best Practices by Colleen Crum with George Palmatier (2003) Abstract: Nada explains why this book is "a must read for any business professional who wants to gain a complete understanding of the business forecasting process." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 49-50 Issue: 1 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:49-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alfred Cuzan Author-Name: J. Scott Armstrong Author-name: Randall J. Jones, Jr. Title: How We Computed the Pollyvote Abstract: No one came closer to predicting the outcome of the 2004 U. S. presidential election than the team at politicalforecasting.com, also called pollyvote.com. They tell us how they did it and whether they think they can do it again. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 51-52 Issue: 1 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:51-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elaine Deschamps Title: Six Steps to Overcome Bias in the Forecast Process Abstract: A technically sound forecast goes nowhere if it is not accepted by those in power, whether they are politicians or upper management. Elaine notes that often the forecast gets manipulated to satisfy political ends or meet targets and plans. Politics is also about biases, motivations, and interests, and comes into play when various incentives and reward structures influence the forecast. She maintains that we need to examine some common problems that organizations face and provide solutions that allow the technically sound forecast to prevail, free of manipulation or bias. She describes a case study in the politics of budget forecasting and offers six strategies to overcoming organizational politics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 6-11 Issue: 2 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: October File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:2:p:6-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Title: The Impact of Corporate Culture on Sales Forecasting Abstract: Based on forecasting audits conducted in six companies and interviews with the corporate forecasters, John Mello distinguishes between the corporate values and strategies that benefit the sales-forecasting process and those that undermine it. We may recognize our own organizations in his study and realize that we are on the right or wrong track. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-15 Issue: 2 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: October File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:2:p:12-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: How to Assess the Effect of Organizational Politics on the Efficiency of the Forecasting Process Abstract: Michael explains his term "forecast value added' (FVA) metric and lists the usual stages in a typical consensus process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-17 Issue: 2 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: October File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:2:p:16-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rob Dhuyvetter Title: Managerial Judgment: Best as an Input to the Statistical Forecasting Process Abstract: Rob Dhuyvetter shares his ideas and experience at the J. R. Simplot Company on the combining of statistical and judgmental forecasts. His main recommendation is to bring managerial judgment directly into the development of the statistical forecasting model rather than limiting managerial judgment to the adjustment of the outputs of statistical forecasting models. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-26 Issue: 2 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: October File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:2:p:24-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Clive Mason Title: My Life as Soothsayer: 25 Years of Forecasting at British Telecom Abstract: Clive reflects on the changes that have taken place during his time as a forecasting practitioner at British Telecommunications PLC (BT) and its predecessors, back to and including the Post office. He does not intend this paper to be a definitive study of forecasting methods in the telecommunications market. Rather, he focuses on the changes in the operating environment of BT over the past 25 years, considers the implications of these changes for forecasting practitioners, and examines the responses to challenges faced. He also discusses the evolution of the forecasting tool kit from simple graphical projection to automated systems. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-32 Issue: 2 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: October File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:2:p:27-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: William Bassin Title: To Include or Not to Include an Explanatory Variable: That is the Question Abstract: The addition of an explanatory variable to a regression model can increase the model's historical explanatory power but decrease forecast accuracy. The difficult question is whether or not to use this explanatory variable in forecasting. The author shows how to estimate the expected effect of the variable's inclusion on forecast accuracy Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-36 Issue: 2 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: October File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:2:p:33-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: A Primer on Forecasting with Neural Networks Abstract: The author demystifies neural networks, describing what neural networks do, when they seem useful as forecasting tools, and what the difficulties are with their use and implementation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-43 Issue: 2 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: October File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:2:p:37-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Title: Demand Works Express 3.5: Filling a Gap in the Demand Planning Software Spectrum Abstract: Jim reviews the effectiveness of this software product, which he says provides "a high level of demand-planning and forecasting capabilities, but at a price point that is affordable to small-to-medium-sized organizations." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-47 Issue: 2 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: October File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:2:p:44-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Book Review of Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment: How to Create a Supply Chain Advantage (Dirk Seifert, 2003) Abstract: Paul discusses several key advantages to using CPFR, as Seifert explains the system. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 48-49 Issue: 2 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: October File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:2:p:48-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kesten C. Green Author-Name: J. Scott Armstrong Title: The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts? Abstract: The authors report the results of several forecasting experiments they conducted with university students and experts, producing some amazing results. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 50-52 Issue: 2 Volume: Year: 2005 Month: October File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:2:p:50-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Allan Lichtman Title: Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 Abstract: Lichtman explain his Keys model, which has successfully predicted (more than one year in advance) the popular vote winner of every presidential election from 1984-2004. He then applies the model to the 2008 presidential election. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-9 Issue: 3 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: February File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:3:p:5-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: J. Scott Armstrong Author-Name: Alfred Cuzan Title: The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 Abstract: Scott and Alfred describe Allan Lichtman's Keys Model as an example of an index method of forecasting, which assigns ratings of favorable, unfavorable, or indeterminate to influencing variables. They describe how index methods have been applied in other decision-making contexts, and they discuss when such methods might be useful analytical tools for business forecasters. In the context of presidential election forecasting, they compare the keys model to several regression models and find that it stacks up quite well against these more sophisticated alternatives. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-13 Issue: 3 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: February File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:3:p:10-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Samohyl Title: Measuring the Efficiency of an Informal Forecasting Process Abstract: Bob Samohyl analyzes a manufacturing company that forecasts orders without a statistical model, on the basis of executive judgment alone. He shows how the company can quickly determine how much potential there is for improving forecast accuracy using even simple statistical models, also noting that cost savings are a likely by-product. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:16-21 Issue: 3 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: February File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:3:p:16-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mario Sepulveda-Guzman Author-Name: Michael Smith Author-Name: George Mechling Title: Forecasting as a Business Process Diagnostic Abstract: These three authors examine a manufacturing company that had developed sophisticated statistical models but still had not obtained satisfactory results for a key product line. They raise the interesting question of whether resources would be better spent in a careful audit of the business process being modeled rather than in further modeling efforts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:22-26 Issue: 3 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: February File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:3:p:22-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Pearson Title: Increasing the Credibility of Your Forecasts: 7 Suggestions Abstract: Credible: Capable of being believed and worthy of confidence. Based on years of experience, surveys of academics, and knowledge of best practices, the author offers solid advice on enhancing the credibility of forecasts and on reducing forecast errors. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-32 Issue: 3 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: February File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:3:p:27-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lyn Thomas Title: Credit Scoring: The State of the Art Abstract: Credit Scoring refers to the techniques that help lenders decide whether or not to approve loan applications. The author discusses the origins of credit scoring, describes the major techniques in use, and examines the recent advances in the field designed to deal with new regulations and a more competitive consumer credit market. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-37 Issue: 3 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: February File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:3:p:33-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rick Hesse, Title: Incorrect Nonlinear Trend Curves in Excel Abstract: Many software programs, including Excel, make it easy to fit exponential trends (that is compound interest growth) to time series data. However, with Excel and some other products, there is a big problem: the exponential functions are done incorrectly because they use logarithmic transformations. Rick illustrates the right way to fit exponential trends, and he shows how misleading the Excel procedure can be. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-43 Issue: 3 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: February File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:3:p:39-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bruce McCullough Title: The Unreliability of Excel's Statistical Procedures Abstract: Bruce describes his methodology for testing the accuracy of statistical software, analyzes Microsoft's track record for providing useful software for forecasting, then concludes with warnings, faults, and workarounds to help deal with these challenges. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-45 Issue: 3 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: February File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:3:p:44-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Fields Title: On the Use and Abuse of Microsoft Excel Abstract: Paul explains what the Excel program is and what it is not. He emphasizes the importance of using "the right tool for the right job" and reports the advantages and disadvantages of the software for forecasting purposes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46-47 Issue: 3 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: February File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:3:p:46-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Book Review of Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market, by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett (1999) Abstract: Roy comments, "It's not too often that I review a book that was published five years ago and is currently remaindered at 20 cents on Amazon.com." In 1999 Glassman and Hassett had issued a stock market forecast that was overoptimistic by 260 percent, a prediction that Roy says "deserves some kind of autopsy." He proceeds to explain how and why the authors' forecast was so far off the mark. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:48-50 Issue: 3 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: February File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:3:p:48-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jay Minnucci Title: Nano Forecasting: Forecasting Techniques for Short-Time Intervals Abstract: Call centers and other organizations that deal in real-time environments must be able to forecast in days, hours, and even minutes. They can do so successfully by finding smaller bits of data hidden within the "macro" data. Jay shows how this nano-forecasting focus can be employed to project call volumes and to improve resource productivity. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:6-10 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:6-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Varisco Title: Forecasting Call Flow in a Direct Marketing Environment Abstract: Peter provides a case study in the use of dynamic modeling to forecast call volumes and to estimate how these volumes are affected by the timing of direct mail campaigns. Dynamic modeling, variously called dynamic regression, ARIMAX, and transfer function modeling, is a driver-based (explanatory) methodology that can supply precise timing effects of key drivers, such as direct mail promotions. In summarizing the lessons from the application of this methodology at New York Life Insurance, Peter provides a working demonstration of the method's value for call-volume forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:11-15 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:11-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dan Rickwalder Title: Forecasting Weekly Effects of Recurring Irregular Occurrences Abstract: Weekly forecasts are important for call centers, but they present a host of challenges, including "recurring irregular occurrences" such as paydays and billing cycles. In this article, Dan describes his techniques for cleaning the weekly data, accounting for the irregular-event effects, and generating weekly forecast of call volume. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:16-18 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:16-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: Transformation Lessons from Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.: Managing the Introduction of a Structured Forecast Process Abstract: Simon Clarke, Manager of Forecasting and Planning for Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc., led a corporate team that engineered a radical transformation of the forecasting process. The team took his organization from an unstructured, decentralized process to a disciplined internal collaboration of over 2,000 forecasters in a highly volatile promotional environment. Here he describes the lessons learned in managing the transformation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:21-25 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:21-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark Moon Title: Breaking Down the Barriers to Forecast Process Improvement Abstract: Mark draws upon his experience in audits of the forecast process at many large companies to identify the key barriers to forecast process improvement and to show how these barriers may be overcome. He examines the critical role of the forecast audit, discusses the need for changes in organization structure, forecast process, computer systems, and performance measurement, and explains how a forecast champion may be necessary to successfully implement the requisite changes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:26-30 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:26-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Title: Measuring Forecast Accuracy: Omissions in Today's Forecasting Engines and Demand-Planning Software Abstract: In this article Jim discusses 1) forecast error calculations for intermittent (sporadic) demand items, 2) issues with measuring forecast error aggregated across items, and 3) metrics for tracking forecast accuracy improvement over time. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:32-35 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:32-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tom Willemain Title: Forecast Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent Demands: Look at the Entire Distribution of Demands Abstract: While most forecast-error metrics are averages of forecast errors, Tom argues that, for intermittent-demand series, we should focus on the demand distribution and assess forecast error at each distinct level of demand. He illustrates how this can be done, and he suggests use of the chi-square statistic to judge the overall effectiveness of the forecast method. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:36-38 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:36-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Boylan Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Title: Accuracy and Accuracy Implication Metrics for Intermittent Demand Abstract: John and Aris distinguish between forecase-accuracy metrics, which measure the errors resulting from a forecast method, and accuracy-implication metrics, which measure the achievement of the organization's stockholding and service-level goals. Both measurements are important. The correct choice of a forecast-accuracy metric depends on the organization's inventory rules, and on whether accuracy is to be gauged for a single item or across a range of items, The authors recommend specific accuracy and accuracy-implication metrics for each context. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:39-42 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:39-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rob J. Hyndman Title: Another Look at Forecast Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent Demand Abstract: Some traditional measurements of forecast accuracy are unsuitable for intermittent demand data because they can give infinite or undefined values. Rob Hyndman summarizes these forecast accuracy metrics and explains their potential failings. He also introduces a new metric-the mean absolute scaled error (MASE)-which is more appropriate for intermittent-demand data. More generally, he believes that the MASE should become the standard metric for comparing forecast accuracy across multiple time series. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:43-46 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:43-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steven Schnaars Title: Lessons from Thomas Edison's Technological and Social Forecasts Abstract: Thomas Edison's inventions have had an unparalleled influence on modern life. But Edison was also a technological forecaster, offering his vision of which technologies would (and would not) dominate our lives in the future. Steve Schnaars looks back on Edison's 13 technological and social forecasts to evaluate the inventor's predictive hits and blunders. The main lesson he sees in Edison's technological forecasting is that spreading risk by pursuing multiple paths to future market success is probably a better strategy that trying to predict precisely which technologies will succeed in the future. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:47-52 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:47-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bill Tonetti Title: Tips for Forecasting Semi-new products Abstract: "Semi-new" is the label that author Bill Tonetti assigns to products that are not truly new, but rather result from extensions and modifications of existing products. In this article, Bill shows how to use data that exist on the predecessor products to forecast demand for the semi-new products. Many firms overlook the opportunities Bill describes here, with severe consequences for forecast accuracy, inventory costs, and service levels. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:53-56 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:53-56 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anirvan Banerji Title: Book Review of Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. By Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2204) Abstract: Banerji comments that Taleb's book "is really an engaging but idiosyncratic, opinionated essay on why people, including professional forecasters, are bad at prediction." Taleb "provides wide-ranging, anecdotal, logical and scientific evidence of misperceptions about the role of randomness in determining outcomes. He also states that "success in life-and even more so in the financial markets-is all too often the result of luck rather than skill." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:57-59 Issue: 4 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: June File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:4:p:57-59 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: J. Scott Armstrong Title: Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings? Abstract: When financial columnist James Surowiecki wrote The Wisdom of Crowds, he wished to explain the successes and failures of markets (an example of a "crowd") and to understand why the average opinion of a crowd is frequently more accurate than the opinions of most of its individual members. In this expanded review of the book, Scott Armstrong asks a question of immediate relevance to forecasters: are the traditional face-to-face meetings an effective way to elicit forecasts from forecast crowds (i. e., teams)? Armstrong doesn't believe so. Quite the contrary, he explains why he considers face-to-face meetings a detriment to good forecasting practice, and he proposes several alternatives that have been tried successfully. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 3-8 Issue: 5 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:5:p:3-8 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Kennedy Title: To Include or Exclude an Explanatory Variable: Beware of Rules of Thumb Abstract: In an earlier Foresight article, William Bassin proposed a theoretical rule of thumb to choose between including or excluding an explanatory variable in a regression model. Peter takes a critical look at that rule of thumb, and he shows that it is based on the unrealistic assumption of zero collinearity (correlation) between explanatory variables. He then offers an alternative rule of thumb that accounts for collinearity. But he also warns that rules of thumb in general can be misleading and need to be supplemented by direct testing of forecast accuracy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-21 Issue: 5 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:5:p:16-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rogelio Oliva Author-Name: Noel Watson Title: Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts Abstract: Oliva and Watson describe how organizational biases arise from the different incentives, agendas, and blind spots of the various functional areas of a business and how they compromise forecast accuracy and disrupt the supply chain process. They present a case study-the Leitax Corporation-of how one organization successfully used consensus forecasting to manage against functional blind spots and incentive misalignments. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-31 Issue: 5 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:5:p:27-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ramesh Sharda Author-Name: Dursun Delen Title: How to Predict a Movie's Success at the Box Office Abstract: Sharda and Delen describe the widely publicized and very successful model they have created to predict the financial performance of a movie before its release to the theaters. Based on neural networks, the model attempts to classify a movie into one of nine categories, ranging from a "flop' to a "blockbuster." Key factors used in the classification include MPAA rating, expected release month, star value, genre, level of special/technical effects, number of screens the movie is expected to open on, and whether or not it is a sequel. Examples of blockbuster movies that the model predicted correctly include Spiderman, Star Wars: Episode II, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, and Shrek. The model missed by under predicting the blockbuster success of My Big Fat Greek Wedding and by predicting success for Waterworld, which fell short. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-36 Issue: 5 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:5:p:32-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Randall J. Jones, Jr. Author-Name: Alfred G. Cuzan Title: A Retrospect on Forecasting Midterm Elections to the U. S. House of Representatives Abstract: The International Institute of Forecasters, publisher of Foresight, sponsored a competition awarding a $1000 prize to the modelers that most accurately forecast the outcome of the 2006 U. S. Congressional election. This brief article describes models previously used to forecast midterm elections. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-42 Issue: 5 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:5:p:37-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ulrich Kusters Title: Software Reviews: Forecasting with SAP Abstract: Kusters gives an overview of the three forecasting engines found in three mySAP modules. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-44 Issue: 5 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:5:p:43-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Norman Gotz Author-Name: Carsten Kohler Title: The New SAP Forecasting and Replenishment Solution: Is It an Improvement over mySAP ERP? Abstract: Based on their long experience on supply chain consulting, Gotz and Kohler evaluate the new SAP Forecasting and Replenishment (F&R) solution. Many retail companies use mySAP ERP or its long-standing predecessor SAP R/3. The authors compare the forecasting and planning functionality of F&R with mySAP ERP, and they find substantial enhancements. Through a case study of the German grocery chain tegut (www.tegut.de), they demonstrate the potential advantages of F&R in forecast accuracy, inventory performance, and cost savings. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-50 Issue: 5 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:5:p:45-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christoph Seeger Title: Forecasting for WorldWide Supply Chain Processes with SAP's APO. Abstract: For many companies, forecasting is more than just an attempt to predict the future; it is the basis for worldwide production, capacity, and transportation planning. In this article, Seeger first describes how the forecasting process is managed at ContiTech Power Transmission Group to plan global material supplies. He then evaluates the forecasting tools within the Advanced Planner and Optimizer (APO) module of mySAP SCM. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 51-54 Issue: 5 Volume: Year: 2006 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2006:i:5:p:51-54 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Chatfield Title: Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster Abstract: Chris Chatfield draws on his experience of over 40 years of forecasting to make some practical recommendations about the choice and implementation of forecasting methods and to offer advice to forecasting practitioners and consultants. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 3-10 Issue: 6 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:3-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rob J. Hyndman Author-Name: Andrey V. Kostenko Title: Minimum Sample Size requirements for Seasonal Forecasting Models Abstract: Authors Rob Hyndman and Andrey Kostenko discuss the bare minimum data requirements for fitting three common types of seasonal models: regression with seasonal dummies, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA. Achieving the requisite minimum numbers, however, does not ensure adequate estimates of seasonality. The amount of additional data required depends on the amount of noise (random variation) in the data. Unfortunately, there are no simple rules about sample size, and the authors note that published tables on sample size requirements are overly simplified. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-15 Issue: 6 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:12-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Leonard Title: Forecasting Short Seasonal Time Series Using Aggregate and Analogous Series Abstract: In forecasting short seasonal time series, Michael Leonard recommends seeking additional sources of information outside the (sparse) historical data on the items themselves. Two potentially promising sources of external information are the histories of the analogous products and of product aggregate in which the item is a component. The article describes a selection tree that can assist the forecaster in choosing an appropriate modeling approach. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-20 Issue: 6 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:16-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dan Williams Title: Seasonality Shrinkage Procedures for Small Samples Abstract: Dan Williams illustrates the major statistical problems with seasonal indexes estimated from short time series. First it is difficult to distinguish the true seasonal index from the year-to-year random variation in the index. Second, the measured indexes are particularly sensitive to outliers in the data. Third, there is evidence that with short series, the indexes exaggerate the variation across seasons. Williams suggests that, when you lack a lengthy time series, you play it safe by shrinking (damping) the spread across the seasonal indexes and shows how this can be done. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-23 Issue: 6 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:21-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Philip Hans Franses Title: Constant vs. Changing Seasonality Abstract: Philip Franses discusses the problem of allowing seasonal patterns to change over time. He notes that most standard models presume a constant seasonal pattern; however, his preference is to use models that allow the seasonal pattern to evolve over time, such as periodic models and time-dependent parameter models. Such models, however, can substantially increase sample size requirements. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-25 Issue: 6 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:24-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Hot New Research: Recent Studies on Forecasting Know-How, Training, and Information Sharing Abstract: New to Foresight with this issue is the column Hot New Research, written by Paul Goodwin. In each issue, Paul will summarize several new articles that address issues of importance to the forecasting practitioner. The focus for this initial column is on forecasting performance in organizations, and how forecasting know-how, training, and information sharing can improve forecasting accuracy and achieve cost savings. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-28 Issue: 6 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:26-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sam Sugiyama Title: Forecast Uncertainty and Monte Carlo Simulation Abstract: Sam Sugiyama has written a primer on the use of Monte Carlo Simulation to assess forecast error. His simple illustrative example and description of the steps in the MCS procedure provide a non-technical overview of this fascinating approach to the evaluation of uncertainty in forecasts. For regression modelers specifically, Sam shows how MCS can be used to develop more realistic prediction intervals than the theoretical PIs found in books and software. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-37 Issue: 6 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:29-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steven Schnaars Title: Book Review of Kenneth Kahn's New Product Forecasting: An Applied Approach Abstract: Stephen Schnaars notes that the Kenneth Kahn book is one of the few books that steers a wide path around the most commonly-covered time series techniques, concentrating instead on 20 new-product forecasting techniques. While Schnaars finds that brevity of coverage and lack of empirical support are deficiencies, he considers the book's strength to be the clear and easy-to-understand discussions for managers. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-39 Issue: 6 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:38-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Author-Name: Wolfgang Schütz Title: Advantages of the MAD/Mean Ratio over the MAPE Abstract: Stephan Kolassa and Wolfgang Schütz provide a careful look at the ratio MAD/Mean, which has been proposed as a substitute metric for the MAPE in the case of intermittent demand series. They explain how MAD/Mean can be viewed as a weighted mean of absolute percentage errors and thus as a weighted alternative to MAPE. They describe several advantages of MAD/Mean to the MAPE including applicability to inventory decisions, absence of bias in method selection, and suitability for series with intermittent as well as near-zero demands. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-43 Issue: 6 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:40-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Carl E. Klarner Author-Name: Stan Buchanan Title: Forecasting the 2006 Democratic Takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives Abstract: Carl Klarner and Stan Buchanan (K&B) have applied an innovative approach to predicting congressional elections by pooling candidate, district-level, and national variables. National tides favored the Democrats in 2006, in the form of pro-Democratic voting intentions, low presidential approval ratings, and moderately slow growth in real disposable income. More than 6 months prior to the election, the K&B model predicted a 22-seat gain for the Democrats with a 95% chance that the party would take control of the House. The final tally gave the Democrats a gain of 30 seats, far above the 15 seats required for the party to recapture the House. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-50 Issue: 6 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:6:p:45-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Maurice Catt Title: Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error: A Practical Example Abstract: Peter provides a detailed tutorial on the costs associated with forecast errors. His procedure considers inventory costs, including safety stock, as well as the costs of lost sales attributable to poor service (out-of stock). He shows how the cost of forecast error (CFE) can be used to determine appropriate safety stock levels. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-10 Issue: 7 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:5-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Pearson Title: An Expanded Prediction-Realization Diagram for Assessing Forecast Errors Abstract: Forty years ago, Henri Theil created a prediction-realization diagram to compare forecasts with the actual changes that were realized. The diagram emphasizes and element of accuracy that is not accounted for in traditional metrics—the accuracy with which you forecast the correct direction of change. Roy expands upon the original diagram to incorporate evaluation of whether the forecasts are improvements upon the standard benchmark of naïve (no-change) forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 11-16 Issue: 7 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:11-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lauge Valentin Title: Use Scaled Errors Instead of Percentage Errors in Forecast Evaluations Abstract: Lauge Valentin presents a case for abandoning percentage errors when evaluating forecasts and replacing them by scaled errors. He describes how the shift from percentage errors to scaled errors was motivated by his company’s need for an accuracy statistic that would lend itself to benchmarking across product groups. Lauge shows how scaled error measures are used in the LEGO Group for evaluating forecast performance. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-22 Issue: 7 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:17-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Author-Name: Terry Esper Title: S&OP, Forecasting, and the Knowledge-Creating Company Abstract: Organizational Knowledge can serve as a competitive advantage for companies. John and Terry draw examples from audits of the forecasting process at many companies to demonstrate how firms can use sales forecasting and sales and operations planning to gather and refine information about changing business environments, create organizational knowledge, and transform that knowledge into actionable plans. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 23-27 Issue: 7 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:23-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephen Custer Author-Name: Don Miller Title: Decision-Directed Forecasting for Major Disruptions: The Impact of 9/11 on Las Vegas Gaming Revenues Abstract: When a major disruption such as 9/11 occurs, managers don’t know what the future holds and may have to put off important decisions while awaiting future data. In many cases, post-disruption conditions are unprecedented, and neither management’s prior experience nor traditional extrapolation methods are of much value. Steve and Don propose a new procedure, decision-directed forecasting, that provides a rational basis for evaluating decision options as new data become available. The decision maker using it is less prone to making a premature decision and better able to recognize when the post-disruption data support a decision option. They use the dramatic fall in Las Vegas gaming revenue after 9/11 to illustrate their approach. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-35 Issue: 7 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:29-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ellen Bonnell Title: How to Get Good Forecasts from Bad Data Abstract: Ellen’s article has three key points. She advises forecasters to accept the idea that data do not have to be perfect. Instead of changing unreliable data used for reporting, she suggests that forecasters create a second set of data to be used for forecasting. She also makes the point that a company’s fiscal calendar, product groupings, and location hierarchies may not be a sound basis for forecasting. Instead of relying on these, she establishes her own calendars, product groups, and location hierarchies with the specific forecasting task in mind. Finally, she observes that executives want forecasting problems to go away. But if they determine what actual problems need to be solved, there might be a way to use forecasting as part of the solution. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-40 Issue: 7 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:36-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: James Borneman Title: The Forecaster as Leader of the Forecasting Process Abstract: From his vantage point as Senior Director of U. S. Forecasting for a major pharmaceutical firm, Jim Borneman analyzes what is takes for the pharmaceutical forecaster to successfully manage the forecasting process. He writes that the requisite skills far surpass the technical aspects of forecasting; indeed, the key attribute is leadership. Forecasters within and outside the pharmaceutical industry will recognize in this discussion the diverse demands and difficult challenges imposed on the business forecaster. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41-44 Issue: 7 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:41-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Title: Forecasting Software: A Progress Report for the First Seven Years of the 21st Century Abstract: Jim observes that the last seven years have seen significant changes in the forecasting software environment, both in terms of computing ability and variety of products. He refers to an article that he and Len Tashman wrote at the turn of the century and presents seven categories of criteria they listed then which could be used to evaluate the existing software. In 2007 he uses these criteria to evaluate innovations in information technology and new forecasting processes and functionality. Finally he suggests there is still room for improvement in present programs and describes the changes he would like to see developed. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-48 Issue: 7 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:45-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Carolyn Allmon Title: Book Review of Forecasting the Retail Supply Chain, by Andre Martin, Mike Doherty, and Jeff Harrop Abstract: Allmon states that the authors—Martin, Doherty, and Harrop—maintain that retail forecasting should start and end at the store level. This can be accomplished by using what they call flowcasting, “a multi-echelon, retail, inventory-management business process designed to (1) forecast products at the retail store level, and (2) plan inventory, replenishment, people requirements, space and equipment resources throughout the retail supply chain in a time-phased manner.” The book includes fourteen steps to use to successfully implement flowcasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 49-51 Issue: 7 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:49-51 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Supermarket Forecasting: Check Out Three New Approaches Abstract: In this Hot New Research Column in Foresight, Paul reports on three new approaches to the difficult challenge of supermarket forecasting. James Taylor has investigated a robust approach to this challenge; he calls it exponentially weighted quantile regression (EWQR). Aburto and Weber propose another method more complex than the exponential smoothing suggested by Taylor. They developed a hybrid model that combines an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with a neural network (NN). Matteo Kalchschmidt and two co-researchers came up with yet a third perspective on the problem, a store-clustering approach. Paul explains the workings of each method. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 53-55 Issue: 7 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:53-55 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Fildes Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies Abstract: In their ongoing investigation into corporate forecasting practices, Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin have uncovered evidence of excessive use of judgmental adjustment to statistical forecasts. In this report, they document the extent of the problem within four large companies, explore the motivations that lead business forecasters to this sometimes counter-productive behavior, and offer a series of recommendations to ensure that forecast adjustments are made for the right reasons. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-10 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:5-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gene Rowe Title: A Guide to Delphi Abstract: When we rely on the judgment of experts to help produce our forecasts, the key issues are how to get the appropriate information from our consultants and how to get a forecast if we are using multiple experts. Gene Rowe describes the Delphi method, tells what it offers to the forecaster, and explains what the pitfalls are in its implementation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 11-16 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:11-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kesten Green Author-Name: J. Scott Armstrong Author-Name: Andreas Graefe Title: Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared Abstract: The Delphi technique is better than traditional group meetings for forecasting and has some advantages over another promising alternative to meetings, prediction markets. In this article, Kesten, Scott, and Andreas observe the increasing popularity of Delphi, describe the benefits of using this method to obtain forecasts from experts, compare it with prediction markets, and conclude that Delphi should be used more widely. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-20 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:17-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Boylan Title: Key Assumptions in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error. A commentary on Peter Catt’s article, Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error, in Issue 7 of Foresight Abstract: John’s key points are these. • Organizations should consider which service level measure aligns most closely to their corporate objectives. Cost of Forecast Error (CFE) calculations should be based on this measure. • Assessment of service level targets at higher levels of aggregation elevates an operational task to a strategic issue and facilitates consideration of external factors. • Alternative approaches which do not depend on Cost of Forecast Error estimates, such as tradeoff curves, should be considered. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 22-24 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:22-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas R. Willemain Title: Use of the Normal Distribution in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error Abstract: Tom reacts to Peter Catt’s article entitled “Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error; A Practical Example.” (Published in Issue 7 of Foresight) NOTE: This is one of 3 commentaries on Catt’s article. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 25-26 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:25-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael E. Smith Title: Supply Risk and Costing Challenges Abstract: Michael reacts to Peter Catt’s article entitled “Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error; A Practical Example.” (Published in Issue 7 of Foresight) NOTE: This is one of 3 commentaries on Catt’s article. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-27 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:26-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Scott Roy Title: Lost Sales and Customer Service Abstract: Scott reacts to Peter Catt’s article entitled “Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error; A Practical Example.” (Published in Issue 7 of Foresight) NOTE: This is one of 3 commentaries on Catt’s article. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter M. Catt Title: Reply to “Cost of Forecast Error” Commentaries Abstract: Peter responds to the three commentaries on his article entitled “Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error; A Practical Example.” (Published in Issue 7 of Foresight) The commentaries were made by Thomas R. Willemain, Michael E. Smith, and Scott Roy and published in the same edition of Foresight (Issue 8). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-30 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:29-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ka Lok Lee Author-Name: Peter Fader Author-Name: Bruce Hardie Title: How to Project Patient Persistency Abstract: Pharmaceutical companies face the problem of how to project the persistency patterns of patients who are taking their manufactured medications – i.e., how to determine the percentage of patients who will continue to refill a given prescription on a timely basis. The authors have developed a probability model with a well-grounded story for the dropout process. The model, which can be implemented in a simple Excel spreadsheet, provides remarkably accurate forecasts as well as other useful diagnostics about patient persistency. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-35 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:31-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Allan J. Lichtman Title: The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 Abstract: The Keys to the White House is a historically based model that has forecast well ahead of time the winners of every presidential election from 1984 through 2004. The theory behind the Keys is that presidential election results turn primarily on the performance of the party controlling the White House, and that politics as usual by the challenging candidate will have no impact on results. In this update of his earlier Keys article in Foresight, Allan Lichtman discusses why the Keys model predicts a Democratic Party takeover of the White House in 2008. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-40 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:36-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Enrique de Alba Author-Name: Manuel Mendoza Title: Bayesian Forecasting Methods for Short Time Series Abstract: This article by Enrique de Alba and Manuel Mendoza extends Foresight’s previous coverage of methods for forecasting seasonal data when the historical series is short (less than 2-3 years of data). The authors describe and illustrate a Bayesian method for seasonal data and show that it can outperform traditional time series methods for short time series. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41-44 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:41-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bill Bassin Title: Book Review of Mirror, Mirror, Who’s the Best Forecaster of Them All? (by Michael F. Bryan and Linsey Molloy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Abstract: Guest columnist Bill Bassin reviews the recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland on the accuracy of economic forecasters. The report’s results do not inspire confidence in our economic forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-46 Issue: 8 Volume: Year: 2007 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:45-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris’s Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning Abstract: Just like Harry Potter and Starbucks, Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning seems to be everywhere. This new book by Thomas Davenport and Jeanne Harris is often assigned as motivational reading for analysts who need a pep talk on the benefits of quantitative analysis. The 9th issue of Foresight leads off with Roy Batchelor’s insightful review, which asks what the quantitative evidence is for the benefits of competing on analytics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 9 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Predicting the Demand for New Products Abstract: In his Hot New Research Column, Paul Goodwin discusses three recent studies on the effectiveness of traditional tools for new product forecasting: consumer intentions surveys, S curves, and conjoint analysis of the basis of customer preferences. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-10 Issue: 9 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:8-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tonya Boone Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Title: The Value of Information Sharing in the Retail Supply Chain: Two Case Studies Abstract: Retail supply chains are complex, with each company in the chain having multiple echelons of distribution. Forecasting and requirements planning are further challenged by managers’ reliance on “local” rather than chain-wide retail demand to make key operational decisions. A frequent consequence is the bullwhip effect. Using two case studies, Tonya and Ram show how information sharing – both within the company’s boundaries and with external partners – can mitigate the bullwhip effect and reduce supply-chain costs. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-17 Issue: 9 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:12-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bruce Andrews Author-Name: James Bennett Author-Name: Lindsey Howe Author-Name: Brooks Newkirk Author-Name: Joseph Ogrodowczyk Title: Innovations in Sales Forecasting for Large-Scale Retailers Abstract: Working as a team for the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Southern Maine, Bruce, James, Lindsey, Brooks and Joseph created a forecasting system for a large retail chain. Their base model uses the ARIMA methodology of Box and Jenkins, but the team has extended ARIMA to deal with the significant challenges of forecasting weekly sales at store and departmental levels. This article offers a case study in the modeling of weekly retail sales and a comprehensive overview of the forecasting hurdles that retailers must address. The modeling innovations noted here should provide retail forecasters with many good leads to pursue. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-24 Issue: 9 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:18-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Carol Gebert Title: Prediction Markets – A Guide to Practical Adoption in the Pharmaceutical Industry Abstract: While prediction markets have attracted considerable attention as potential forecasting systems, very little has been written about the challenges of implementing them. Carol addresses this need here, making her case that successful implementation requires predictions worth making, an active community of participants, and real reward incentives for participating. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 25-29 Issue: 9 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:25-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andreas Graefe Title: Prediction Markets – Defining Events and Motivating Participation Abstract: Andreas extends Carol Gebert’s discussion of the hurdles to implementation of prediction markets (issue 9) with his thoughts on defining the prediction event and the often delicate issue of the types of incentives needed to motivate trader participation in the market. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-32 Issue: 9 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:30-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joe Miles Title: A Primer on Prediction Markets Abstract: Prediction markets are being used to group individual opinions into collective judgment. Experimental prediction markets have improved on existing techniques for forecasting political elections and have been implemented in major corporations, such as Intel and Eli Lilly. Prediction markets have at least five advantages over other collective forecasting techniques: 1. Explicit incentives for accuracy, 2. Mitigation of bias, 3. Capture of untapped knowledge, 4. Reduction in meeting times, and 5. Dynamic updating of information. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-35 Issue: 9 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:33-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sam Sugiyama Title: Monte Carlo Simulation/Risk Analysis on a Spreadsheet: Review of Three Software Packages Abstract: Sam reviews the three major software offerings on the market today: • Crystal Ball (Version 7.3.1 Professional) from Oracle (formerly Decisioneering), • @RISK and its companion RiskOptimizer (5.0 Industrial - prerelease version) from Palisade • Risk Solver (8.0 - beta) and its companion optimization software, Premium Solver Platform (8.0 - beta) from Frontline Systems, Inc. His review is followed by a commentary from each of the software companies. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-41 Issue: 9 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:36-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: “Been There, Done That”: Perils, Pitfalls, and Promises of Long-Term Projections Abstract: Twenty-five years ago, a team led by Nobel laureate Wassily Leontief applied the United Nations World Input-Output Model to make forecasts of world fuel and mineral resources for the year 2000 and beyond. Ira Sohn, a member of that team, reflects on his experience with this long-term forecasting endeavor. Noting that long-term forecasting is fraught with uncertainties, Ira analyzes the sources of the forecasting errors made and suggests ways to improve long-term modeling. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-48 Issue: 9 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:9:p:43-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Fields Title: The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction Abstract: It’s been said that forecasting is the second-oldest profession. From the Greek oracles to computer models, the new book by David Orrell – The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction – offers a thorough recounting of forecasting past and some intriguing forecasts for the rest of this century. Reviewer Paul Fields praises the author’s examination of the interconnections among physical, biological, and economic systems, showing how events in one area are inextricably linked to events in the other two. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 10 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:10:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Pearson Title: Looking at Tomorrow Today: The What, Why, and How of Futuring for Forecasters Abstract: Out with the beaded curtains, dripping candles, and crystal balls, says Roy Pearson in this, his first column as Foresight’s Forecasting Intelligence Editor. These days, trying to foretell the future has become a respected and respectable line of work. Roy writes that today’s futurists utilize methods and practices most forecasters can admire, adapt, and incorporate into their own processes – and very possibly improve their forecasting accuracy as a result. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 9-14 Issue: 10 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:10:p:9-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Antonio García-Ferrer Title: Lessons Learned: Reflections from 25 Years as a Forecasting Consultant Abstract: Antonio presents a contrasting pair of studies performed during his consulting career, illustrating the conditions that distinguish a successful project outcome from a failure. He offers provocative advice for implementation and management of forecasting projects. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-22 Issue: 10 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:10:p:15-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jerry Shan Author-Name: Matthew Reimann Author-Name: Fereydoon Safai Title: Life-Cycle Forecasting for New Products: The HP Approach to Forecasting Printer Demand Abstract: Forecasting for products with short life cycles is a well-known challenge. Jerry, Matthew, and Fereydoon describe an approach they developed to forecast printer demand at Hewlett-Packard. The approach has two components: one, which they call the automatic Product Life Cycle (PLC) method, is applied to product forecasts; the other, the Statistical Prediction for Aggregates (SPA) method, is applied to a product family/financial market category. HP believes this approach has improved forecasting performance. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 23-27 Issue: 10 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:10:p:23-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Randall J. Jones, Jr. Author-Name: Alfred G. Cuzán Title: Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review Abstract: With the November 2008 U.S. presidential election looming, Randall and Alfred describe the enduring forecasting models that have been created by economists and political scientists for predicting the results of this quadrennial ritual. The most stable models since 1996 have consistently forecast the election winner, with an average error of less than 3%. While not all of the players have issued their forecasts for this year’s final vote, the models suggest that the outlook for the Republican Party is negative. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-34 Issue: 10 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:10:p:29-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: A Quick Tour of Tourism Forecasting Abstract: Paul Goodwin’s latest Hot New Research Column is very appropriate for the summer season. He reports on a recent paper by Haiyan Song and Gang Li, who reviewed research into tourism forecasting published in 121 articles since 2000. Paul also refers to another recently published paper by Sedat Yuksel, who describes a method for forecasting monthly demand at a five-star hotel in Ankara. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-37 Issue: 10 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:10:p:35-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kesten Green Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Should We Define Forecast Error as E = F - A Or E = A - F? Abstract: Kesten and Len recently posed the question in the title to the membership of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF), and they report on the responses and rationales received to date. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-40 Issue: 10 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:10:p:38-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Book Review of Super Crunchers by Ian Ayres Abstract: Batchelor writes, "Super Crunchers tells how simple statistical models applied to large data sets are increasingly being used to improve decision making in a wide range of business and professional applications. It highlights the fact that these models generally outperform the judgment of experienced and well-informed experts" in a wide variety of tasks. Ayres presents three circumstances under which such models can help improve decision making and offers several cases that support his argument well. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-5 Issue: 11 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:11:p:4-5 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephen Kolassa Title: Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy? Abstract: Organizations often seek benchmarks to judge the success of their forecasts. Reliable benchmarks would allow the company or agency to see if it has improved upon industry standards and to evaluate whether investment of additional resources in forecasting would be money well spent. But can the existing benchmark surveys be trusted? "No," says Stephan Kolassa, who has analyzed the surveys and found them seriously deficient. In this article Stephan explains the many problems that plague benchmark surveys and advises that companies should redirect their search from external to internal benchmarks since the latter provide a better representation of the processes and targets the company has in place. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 6-14 Issue: 11 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:11:p:6-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Rieg Title: Measuring Improvement in Forecast Accuracy: A Case Study Abstract: Over the past 15-20 years, improvements in forecasting methods, deepening practical experience, and increasing computing power should have allowed companies to significantly improve their forecasting accuracy. In this paper Robert Rieg examines the changes in forecasting accuracy of a large automobile manufacturer between 1991 and 2005. His analysis shows how a company can examine its track record over time and emphasizes the need to distinguish internal from external factors that impinge on forecasting accuracy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-20 Issue: 11 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:11:p:15-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Teresa McCarthy Author-Name: Donna Davis Author-Name: Susan Golicic Author-Name: John Mentzer Title: Commentary on Benchmarking Abstract: In issue 11 of Foresight, Stephen Kolassa and Robert Rieg gave their perceptions of shortcomings in surveys of forecast accuracy, referring to a 2006 longitudinal study by McCarthy et al. Here McCarthy and her fellow authors reply and also take up the question of the wisdom of benchmarking forecast accuracy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-23 Issue: 11 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:11:p:21-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Title: Commentary on Benchmarking Abstract: Jim Hoover, Foresight's Software Editor, also comments on the articles by Kolassa and Rieg on benchmarking (Foresight, issue 11). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-25 Issue: 11 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:11:p:24-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ian Watson-Jones Title: Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects Abstract: While no one who has attempted to manage a new Operational Forecasting (OF) project will tell you it was a piece of cake, they probably never fully anticipated the breadth of issues that would have to be addressed or the sustained leadership requirements necessary for effecting change that works. Ian Watson-Jones has spearheaded many an OF project. In this feature article, Ian describes the wide range of elements that can undermine project success and offers mighty sensible recommendations for anticipating and overcoming the challenges. Don't miss his checklists of Process, System, and Organization issues. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-36 Issue: 11 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:11:p:26-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Patrick Wader Author-Name: Mark A. Moon Title: Commentaries on Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects Abstract: In separate articles, Wader and Moon comment on Ian Watson-Jones' article (issue 11 of Foresight) on overcoming challenges in operational forecast projects. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-40 Issue: 11 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:11:p:37-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Randall Jones, Jr. Author-Name: Alfred Cuzan Title: Regression Model Forecasts of the U. S. Presidential Election Abstract: As a follow-up to their Summer 2008 article in Foresight, Jones and Kuzan present a table of 13 regression model forecasts of the major-party vote in the U.S. presidential election. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41-42 Issue: 11 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:11:p:41-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ulrich Kusters Author-Name: Janko Thyson Title: Software Review of Forecast Pro Unlimited: An Off-the-Shelf Solution for Large-Volume Forecasting Abstract: In this software column, the authors review Version 5.0 of Forecast Pro Unlimited (FPU), a Windows-based product developed by Business Forecast Systems, Inc. (BFS). The program is a successor to the Forecast Pro Batch system, which has been on the market for more than a decade. Compared to Forecast Pro Extended Edition - BFS's "hands-on" product - Forecast Pro Unlimited provides a smaller method spectrum while offering enhanced data management facilities. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-49 Issue: 11 Volume: Year: 2008 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:11:p:43-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alec Finney Author-Name: Martin Joseph Title: The Forecasting Mantra: A Holistic Approach to Forecasting and Planning Abstract: Applying decades of experience in pharmaceutical forecasting, Alec Finney and Martin Joseph offer a template for steering the forecasting and planning process through organizational pitfalls to a successful outcome. Some lessons were learned the hard way; but aren't these lessons the most convincing? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-13 Issue: 12 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:5-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tom Wallace Author-Name: Bob Stahl Title: Sales Forecasting: Improving Cooperation Between the Demand People and the Supply People Abstract: In this selection from their book Sales Forecasting: A New Approach, Tom Wallace and Bob Stahl identify some all-too-common beliefs ("gripes and myths") that can impede cooperation and consensus building in an organization's forecasting process. Here they prescribe some remedies for bettering the working relationships between demand folks and supply folks, thus enhancing the effectiveness of the forecasting process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-20 Issue: 12 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:14-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Title: "Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies" Abstract: Given the virtual explosion of interest in Sales & Operations Planning, Foresight commissioned two reviews of the book "Sales and Operations Planning-Best Practices: Lessons Learned from Worldwide Companies," by John Dougherty and Christopher Gray. The first is from an academic, Professor John Mello. There is another by software developer Joe McConnell, principal of McConnell Chase Software Works. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-22 Issue: 12 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:21-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joseph McConnell Title: "Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies" Abstract: Given the virtual explosion of interest in Sales & Operations Planning, Foresight commissioned two reviews of the book "Sales and Operations Planning-Best Practices: Lessons Learned from Worldwide Companies," by John Dougherty and Christopher Gray. The first is from an academic, Professor John Mello. This review is by software developer Joe McConnell, principal of McConnell Chase Software Works. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 23-25 Issue: 12 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:23-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Sephton Title: Predicting Recessions: A Regression (Probit) Model Approach Abstract: Forecasting recessions is fraught with difficulties: we never know if we are in recession until long after one has started. This makes it all the more important to try to predict in advance the likelihood of recession, so that businesses can plan accordingly. Peter takes us inside the economist's crystal ball, identifying key indicators of economic recession and how they can be combined into a predictive model. The model forecasts a difficult 2009. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-32 Issue: 12 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:26-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts Abstract: Paul Goodwin reports on recent research into the theory that combining forecasts from different methods or sources can result in greater forecast accuracy. He cites studies by George Kapetanios, as well as several other researchers, to support the conclusion that "combining forecasts is certainly worth a long, close look." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-35 Issue: 12 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:33-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kesten Geeen Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Percentage Error: What Denominator? Abstract: This is the authors' second survey on the measurement of forecast error. They reported the results of their first survey in the Summer 2008 issue of Foresight (Green & Tashman, 2008). The question they asked in that survey was whether to define forecast error as Actual minus Forecast (A-F) or Forecast minus Actual (F-A). Respondents made good arguments for both of the alternatives. In the current survey, they asked how percentage forecast error should be measured. In particular, what should the denominator be when calculating percentage error? The resulting answers and comments are presented here. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-40 Issue: 12 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:36-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andreas Graefe Author-Name: J. Scott Armstrong Author-Name: Alfred G. Cuzán Author-Name: Randall J. Jones, Jr. Title: Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote Abstract: At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket's share of the two-party vote would be 47.0%. The outcome was close at 46.6% (as of the end of November). In his Hot New Research column in this issue, Paul Goodwin discusses the benefits of combining forecasts. The success of the Pollyvote should further enhance interest is this approach to forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41-42 Issue: 12 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:41-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Randall J. Jones, Jr. Author-Name: Alfred G. Cuzán Title: Forecasting Performance of Regression Models in the 2008 Presidential Election Abstract: In the Summer and Fall 2008 issues of Foresight, Randall Jones and Alfred Cuzan described 13 regression models used to forecast presidential elections and reported the models' forecasts for the 2008 US presidential election. Here is their audit of the results. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43 Issue: 12 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Orrell Title: Review of Adam Gordon’s Book Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change Abstract: Orrell reviews the four steps Adam Gordon advises in the forecasting process: discerning the forecast’s true purpose, measuring the quality of the forecasting methodology, analyzing the systems that can help untangle the complexities, and examining how the forecaster handles uncertainty. Gordon also stresses the importance of quality control in the forecasting process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-6 Issue: 13 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:1:13:p:4-6 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Forecasting Sharp Changes Abstract: Batchelor concludes we have learned yet again just how bad we are at forecasting sharp and hard-to-reverse changes in economic conditions. The linear models that perform well most of the time aren’t cut out for this job. Waiting in the wings are some nonlinear models – of regime switches, catastrophes, and critical network events – that explain how normally stable, complex systems can become unstable, and that might actually provide us with dependable early warnings of bubbles and crashes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-12 Issue: 13 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:1:13:p:7-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Title: The Impact of Sales Forecast Game Playing on Supply Chains Abstract: Game playing has been defined as the intentional manipulation of a forecasting process to gain personal, group, or corporate advantage. And the consequences can be severe. John Mello provides a fascinating description of the games forecasters can play, identifying the organizational environments that can foster game playing, and recommending a variety of policies to discourage continuation of the practice. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-22 Issue: 13 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:1:13:p:13-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter M. Catt Title: Forecastability: Insights from Physics, Graphical Decomposition, and Information Theory Abstract: Catt’s aim with this paper is to equip forecasters with some cross-disciplinary theory on forecastability and to provide practical techniques for assessing how forecastable a historical time series is. A time series is a sequence of values at equally spaced time intervals: days, weeks, months, quarters, or years. The historical time series can be viewed as an outcome (realization) of an underlying data generating process (DGP). Assessments of forecastability require an understanding of the DGP and its components. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-33 Issue: 13 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:1:13:p:24-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Boylan Title: Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability Abstract: The idea of forecastability is valuable because it allows attention to shift from forecasting methods to the series that are being forecast, but the concept of forecastability needs sharpening. • Coefficients of variation and approximate entropy metrics assess the stability of a time series. Stability is an important idea, but it should be distinguished from forecastability. • Forecastability should refer to the range of forecast errors that are achievable, on average, in the long run. A forecastability metric should supply an upper and lower bound of forecast error. Any method producing greater errors (less accurate forecasts), on average, than the upper bound should be discontinued. • There are conceptual and practical difficulties in determining “the lowest achievable level of forecast error.” Recourse to automatic method-selection features of forecasting software, combining forecasts, and use of analogous series can point to the effective lower bound. • Greater attention should be given to identifying more forecastable series. These can be used to assist the forecasting of less forecastable series. They may, in some instances, be used instead of the less forecastable series to guide decision. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-40 Issue: 13 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:1:13:p:34-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: How to Assess Forecastability Abstract: Concluding a section on How to Assess Forecastability (Foresight, Issue 13), Stephan Kolassa comments on papers by Peter Catt and John Boylan (in the same issue). Stephan contrasts Catt’s preferred metric, approximate entropy, with Boylan’s lowest achievable forecast error (lower bound), seeking a practical synthesis of the two views. He also expands upon the meaning of the entropy metric and discusses key issues in the entropy calculation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41-45 Issue: 13 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:1:13:p:41-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: The U.S. National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” Abstract: Sohn comments on the “Global Trends” report, the fourth installment of the NIC’s “effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future and to stimulate strategic thinking about the future by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact.” He notes some of the problems and scenarios outlined in the report, including five key drivers that are propelling present trends and dynamics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46-50 Issue: 13 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:1:13:p:46-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Sephton Title: Book Review of The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives Abstract: Sephton reviews Leonard Mlodinow’s recent book, The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-8 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:5-8 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Pearson Title: Fast and Easy Access to Monthly Forecasts Abstract: Pearson tells readers about the wealth of free information about current economics that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) makes available online. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 9-11 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:9-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert A. Stahl Title: Simpler, Better, and Needed More than Ever Abstract: Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) has become perhaps the most significant innovation of this generation for forecast process improvement, bringing demand people and supply people together in a structured series of steps. But the effective uses of S&OP are not widely understood, and while practitioners need to hear what is working, it is imperative for them to learn what is not working, and why, and how companies are correcting the problems. Bob Stahl lays the foundation for understanding what the executive component of S&OP is – and where it fits in the organizational hierarchy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-16 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:12-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Title: How to Track Forecast Accuracy to Guide Forecast Process Improvement Abstract: While considerable attention has been paid to the measurement of forecast accuracy for individual items at particular points in time, issues around an aggregated forecast-accuracy metric and its tracking over time still present opportunities for discussion. Jim Hoover talks about why organizations have neglected the task of tracking forecast accuracy and offers a step-by-step guide for getting back on the track. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-23 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:17-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Orrell Author-Name: Patrick McSharry Title: A Systems Approach to Forecasting Abstract: “We have become increasingly aware that our businesses and societies are embedded in complex systems – the economic system, the climate system, and so on – which are globally linked and may be susceptible to sudden change. Forecasting tools developed for the demands of classical astronomy are not useful for these situations and can be devastating when taken too seriously (as when they are adopted in the risk models of banks). We therefore need to complement our existing forecasting methods with ones derived from a systems-forecasting approach. Most of the tools for systems forecasting are already available and, tied into a coherent approach, they will offer a robust and attractive alternative to traditional methods. We may not be able to predict the exact timing of the next crisis, but atleast we will be better at evaluating the risk – and perhaps we can even learn to prevent it in the first place.” Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 25-30 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:25-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Why Do We Need Complexification? A Commentary on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast” Abstract: Batchelor comments on the issue 14 Foresight article by David Orrell and Patrick McSharry, part of a special feature entitled Rethinking the Ways We Forecast. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-34 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:31-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Author-Name: Robert Fildes Title: Commentary on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast” Abstract: Goodwin and Fildes comment on the issue 14 Foresight article by Orrell and McSharry, A Systems Approach to Forecasting, part of a special feature entitled Rethinking the Ways We Forecast Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-38 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:35-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Orrell Author-Name: Patrick McSharry Title: Reply to Commentaries Abstract: Orrell and McSharry, authors of A Systems Approach to Forecasting (issue 14 of Foresight) reply to commentaries by Roy Batchelor, and Paul Goodwin and Robert Fildes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jerry Z. Shan Author-Name: Julie Ward Author-Name: Shelen Jain Author-Name: Jose Beltran Author-Name: Feridoun Amirjalayer Author-Name: Young-Wook Kim Title: Spare-Parts Forecasting: A Case Study at Hewlett-Packard Abstract: Spare parts generate high sales margins and improve customer loyalty by extending the useful life of base products. Forecasting and managing the spare-parts business is challenging, however, due in no small measure to short life cycles and long support life for the base products. At Hewlett-Packard, the Replacement Parts Business (RPB) was challenged by shortages that drove customers to competing parts suppliers. To deal with this threat, an HP team refined the company’s forecasting methodology. This paper describes the business issues involved and the forecasting processes developed. Of particular methodological interest is their approach to (a) choosing between monthly and quarterly forecasts, (b) adjusting the historical data for price/promotion effects, and (c) combining regression and time-series forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-47 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:40-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tom Yokum Title: Sparklines: The Tom Thumb of Statistical Graphs Abstract: Yokum defines and explains sparklines, tells readers about the software that is available for producing them, writes about the embellishments that may be added, and evaluates the pros and cons of using sparklines. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 48-50 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:48-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Staff Title: Forecaster in the Field Abstract: Interview with Peg Young, Bureau of Transportation Statistics Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 51 Issue: 14 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:14:p:51 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Book Review of Animal Spirits Abstract: Batchelor reviews Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 15 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Taking Stock: Assessing the True Cost of Forecast Errors Abstract: Goodwin comments on the drawbacks and problems involved in using off-the-peg error metrics and cites studies by several recent researchers on the accuracy and effectiveness of these metrics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-11 Issue: 15 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:8-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joe Smith Title: The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools, Part 1 Abstract: Smith comments that of the three crucial components for forecasting-people, process, and tools-too many companies are quick to focus on tools without fully appreciating the importance of the other two, people and process. Process design, he contends, is an especially important prerequisite to optimize forecast performance. Parts 2 and 3 of this series will be published in subsequent issues of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-18 Issue: 15 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:12-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ian Watson-Jones Title: "People, Process, then Tools"-But What if the People and Toolset are Frozen? Abstract: Joe Smith published an article in issue 15 of Foresight-People, then Process, then Tools" In a commentary on Smith's views, Watson-Jones writes about how to manage the people and the tools if you have not chosen them yourself. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-21 Issue: 15 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:19-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark A. Moon Title: The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools: A Commentary Abstract: In a follow-up article to Joe Smith's piece The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools (Foresight, issue 15) Moon agrees fully that tools themselves are not the key to effective forecasting. He argues for clear metrics and an emphasis on the entire culture of the organization, not merely the people. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 22-24 Issue: 15 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:22-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert A. Stahl Author-Name: Brad McCollum Title: How Jarden Branded Consumables Made Forecasting Simpler and Better Through Executive S&OP Abstract: Stahl and McCollum use a mini case study to show how Executive S&OP helped to make forecasts simpler and better, keep the forecasters looking forward, upgrade the forecasting process, and promote conflict resolution. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 25-31 Issue: 15 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:25-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Philip Hans Franses Title: Can Managers Judgmental Forecasts Be Made Scientifically? Abstract: What is the basis of the adjustments managers make to the statistical forecasts for their product lines? You would expect that intuition plays a role and, of course, there are organizational pressures that come to bear. Research by Philip Hans Franses raises the intriguing possibility that the factors involved in the manager's judgmental forecast can be modeled statistically. An equation that attempts to replicate a forecaster's judgment is called a judgmental bootstrap. This case study suggests that judgmental bootstraps can become a useful tool in the forecasting process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-36 Issue: 15 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:32-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tonya Boone Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Author-Name: Robert L. Hicks Title: Case Study: Forecasting the Productivity of Professional Services Abstract: In this case study of an architectural/engineering firm, Tonya, Ram, and Robert offer a new technique for projecting the scope and costs of professional-service projects. They utilize historical monthly data to estimate relationships between project outputs on one hand and labor inputs and prior experience on the other. Their model promises to be an upgrade for firms that traditionally develop judgmental projections without the benefit of formal statistical analysis. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-41 Issue: 15 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:37-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rick Hesse Title: Using Excel to Forecast: A review of two recent How-To Books Abstract: MS Excel offers forecasters very limited capabilities compared to commercial forecasting software. Foresight's "Spotlight on Excel" in the February 2006 issue demonstrated many flaws in the "quick and dirty" manner of some Excel data-analysis functions that produced problematic forecasts. But, as reviewer Paul Fields noted, "Excel…can be very helpful when you are learning to do quantitative analysis." In that spirit, two recent books show how you might use Excel to learn about forecasting. Rick Hesse, who also contributed to Foresight's "Spotlight on Excel" feature, provides his reviews. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-44 Issue: 15 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:42-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Staff Interviewer Title: Forecasters in the Field Abstract: This ongoing feature of Foresight features an interview with a husband and wife tea of forecasters, Tonya Boone and Ram Ganeshan. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 47 Issue: 15 Volume: Year: 2009 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Using Forecasting to Steer the Business: Six Principles Abstract: Based upon his forthcoming book Future Ready: How to Master the Art of Business Forecasting, Steve Morlidge – a finance professional by background – argues here that forecasters need to adopt a broader perspective on the role of strategic forecasting and a longer-range view on forecasts themselves. Steve offers a series of principles that should enable the business to navigate better through troubled waters. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-11 Issue: 16 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:16:p:4-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Pearson Title: A Baker’s Dozen Free Sources of Economic Forecasts Abstract: In the Summer 2009 issue of Foresight, Pearson described Short-Term Energy Outlook, a report prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration and found at https://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html, as a source for free national and census-division economic forecasts, available through their Custom Table Builder at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. In this article he suggests other free sources a forecaster might consult for a free professional assessment of the future course of the U.S. economy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-15 Issue: 16 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:16:p:12-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joe Smith Title: Forecast Process Design: Part 2, The Forecast Reliability Assurance Model (FRAM) Abstract: In Part 1 of this series – “The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools,” from the Fall 2009 issue of Foresight – Joe Smith discussed the contribution of these three ingredients to effective forecast process design. In this follow-up article, he maps out specific steps of process design, incorporating these key themes into workable systems that can be utilized in any organization. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-23 Issue: 16 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:16:p:16-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nick Guthrie Author-Name: Des Markland Title: Assessing Uncertainty in New-Product Forecasts Abstract: Nick and Des discuss an approach implemented at AstraZeneca to forecast the commercial success of new pharmaceutical products. The article is a virtual tutorial for group assessment of the uncertainties for any new product with long development times. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-39 Issue: 16 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:16:p:32-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert A. Stahl Author-Name: Amy Mansfield Title: How V&M Star Converts Family Forecasts Into Resource Requirements With Executive S&OP Abstract: Generating item-level forecasts can be complex, time consuming, and frustrating for forecasters, and can produce forecasts so inaccurate that they are not used in the planning process. In this case study of V&M Star, management uses Executive S&OP to refocus its forecasting process to family-level forecasts, which are then converted into resource requirements based on assumptions about product mix. This new approach has allowed V&M Star to gain bottom-line results of improved customer service with reduced inventories. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-45 Issue: 16 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:16:p:40-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Title: Corporate Culture and S&Op: Why Culture Counts Abstract: John Mello argues that successful execution of S&OP in a business is inevitably linked to corporate culture. The culture of the organization must ensure effective collaboration among its units by supporting trust, openness, and a climate where departments and individuals accept responsibility. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46-49 Issue: 16 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:16:p:46-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Interview Title: Forecaster in the Fieldthe Field Abstract: Interview with Steve Morlidge, writer of the lead article in issue 16 of Foresight and of the recently published book Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 50 Issue: 16 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:16:p:50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Why Hindsight Can Damage Foresight Abstract: Goodwin defines hindsight bias and gives examples, examines its psychological basis, shows how it may interfere with the forecasting process, and suggests ways it might be at least partly overcome. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 17 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:17:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andreas Graefe Title: Prediction Markets for Forecasting Drug Development Abstract: With issue 17, Foresight begins a new column on prediction markets, an increasingly widespread mechanism for aggregating predictions from dispersed individuals. Column Editor Andreas Graefe will keep you apprised of new developments in the field and how likely these are to succeed. For an introduction to prediction markets and analysis of the conditions that underpin successful implementation, see our feature section, “Prediction Markets for Pharmaceutical Forecasting and Beyond,” in the Spring 2008 issue of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-12 Issue: 17 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:17:p:8-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Adam Gordon Title: A DEFT Approach to Trend-Based Foresight Abstract: Trend projection is a critical element of most forecasting models. Automatic forecasting methods typically glean trends from past data and extrapolate these trends forward, but do so without consideration of the forces that nurture the trend – and that eventually may turn on it. Adam Gordon’s DEFT framework helps you probe behind the trend to identify the underlying Drivers, Enablers, Friction, and Turners. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-18 Issue: 17 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:17:p:13-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Author-Name: Rob J. Hyndman Title: Free Open-Source Forecasting Using R Abstract: Neelie Kroes, while antitrust commissioner for the EU, said, “In the current economic context, all companies are looking for cost-effective IT solutions. Systems based on open-source software are increasingly emerging as viable alternatives to proprietary solutions.” Stephan Kolassa and Rob Hyndman provide their evaluation of whether R, an open-source statistical computing environment, can be used for forecasting. They compare it favorably to professionally produced and quality-controlled commercial software. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-23 Issue: 17 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:17:p:19-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert A. Stahl Author-Name: William Kerber Title: Resolving a Family Feud: Market-Facing versus Lean Manufacturing Families Abstract: Two very important business processes are Lean Manufacturing and Executive S&OP. Both processes require grouping products into families but for very different uses, so there is a sharp difference between how each process defines a family. In this column, Bob Stahl and Bill Kerber show how to resolve the family feud by converting market forecasts into production requirements. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-36 Issue: 17 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:17:p:32-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joe Smith Title: Forecast Process Design, Part 3: Change Management and the Forecasting Challenge Abstract: This is the final article of our three-part series by Joe Smith on forecast process design. Part 1, The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools, published in the Fall 2009 issue, examined the elements of effective forecast process design. Part 2, FRAM: The Forecast Reliability Assurance Model, appeared in the Winter 2010 issue. Now, in Part 3, Joe discusses managing change and the challenges of steering an organization to a new forecast process design. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-44 Issue: 17 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:17:p:37-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Carolyn I. Allmon Title: Book Review Abstract: Carolyn Allmon reviews two recently published books: Business Forecasting: A Practical, Comprehensive Resource for Managers and Practitioners by Robert A. Krueger and Strategic Business Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Shaping the Future of Your Business by Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-49 Issue: 17 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:17:p:45-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Forecaster in the Field Abstract: Interview with Adam Gordon, author of Future Savvy Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 50 Issue: 17 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:17:p:50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mike Gilliland Title: Defining "Demand" for Demand Forecasting Abstract: Demand forecasting is often uncritically based on histories of orders received, shipments/sales, or some combination of the two. As Mike Gilliland explains in this article, the ultimate goal - a measurement of true demand - is elusive and not always amenable to simple formulae based on orders and shipments. What to do? Recognizing the measurement difficulties, Mike suggests we can often derive a proxy for true demand that is close enough to be useful in generating an unconstrained forecast. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-8 Issue: 18 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:18:p:4-8 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Boylan Title: Choosing Levels of Aggregation for Supply Chain Forecasts Abstract: With this issue, Foresight debuts a new column on supply-chain forecasting. John Boylan, our column editor, will offer his insights on the practical challenges of forecasting and reconciling forecasts across the hierarchical levels of a supply chain. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 9-13 Issue: 18 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:18:p:9-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad M. Ali Author-Name: John E. Boylan Title: The Value of Forecast Information Sharing in Supply Chains Abstract: Many studies have pointed to the possibility of substantial benefits from collaboration among supply-chain partners, including information sharing - one form of which is the sharing of forecast information (FIS). In this article, Mohammad Ali and John Boylan report the substantial and specific benefits of FIS found in their study of two large companies: a European supermarket and a U.S. hardware manufacturer. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-18 Issue: 18 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:18:p:14-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Worst-Case Scenarios in Forecasting: How Bad Can Things Get? Abstract: Roy Batchelor, Foresight's Financial Forecasting Editor, explains that conventional business-forecasting models are not set up to tell us about the impacts of extreme events-hence, their worst-case forecasts are liable to be less severe than the worst that plays out in the future. While recognition of this caveat is important in itself, there are ways to model the impacts of extreme events and thus derive a realistic indication of downside risk. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-32 Issue: 18 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:18:p:27-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Allan J. Lichtman Title: The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2010 Abstract: The "Keys to the White House" is a forecasting model that has retrospectively predicted the popular-vote winner of every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and forecast, well ahead of time, the popular-vote winner of every presidential election from 1984 through 2008. Allan Lichtman, the guru behind the model, writes, "Already, the Keys have produced a relatively secure forecast for the presidential election of 2012. Barring major and unexpected setbacks at home and abroad, Barack Obama will win reelection to another four years in the White House." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-37 Issue: 18 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:18:p:33-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Pearson Title: Looking Under the Hood of That Trend Abstract: The Spring 2010 issue of Foresight featured Adam Gordon's presentation of "A DEFT Approach to Trend-Based Foresight." DEFT is the Drivers, Enablers, Friction, and Turners that underpin a trend and determine its course and longevity. In this article, Roy Pearson offers his perspectives on implementing the DEFT approach and discusses how DEFT can help augment other takes on trend projections. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-42 Issue: 18 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:18:p:38-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Book Review of The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, by Joel Kotkin Abstract: Joel Kotkin, a leading expert on urban and regional issues, speculates about the prospective demographic profile of the U.S. over the next four decades, focusing on the likely changes in American living patterns, with an emphasis on geographical trend. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-45 Issue: 18 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:18:p:43-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ulrich Küsters Title: Book Review of “The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions” by Michael Gilliland Abstract: Küsters gives an overview and summary of Gilliland’s recent book. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 19 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:19:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Forecaster in the Field Abstract: Interview with Mike Gilliland (SAS Institute), author of “The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions” Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8 Issue: 19 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:19:p:8 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Adam Gordon Title: The Boundaries of Quantitative Forecasting Methods: Respecting the Limits of Determinism Abstract: In this Foresight feature article, Adam Gordon distills the lessons we have been learning about the limitations of quantitative forecasting models. He reminds us that the challenges of prediction are daunting and that forecasters should not plunge ahead with quant models without assessing the level of uncertainty inherent in the forecasting environment. Read on for a reality check. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 9-15 Issue: 19 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:19:p:9-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Orrell Title: Commentary: In Some Ways the Situation Is Even Worse Abstract: Orrell responds to Adam Gordon’s article in issue 19 of Foresight: The Boundaries of Quantitative Forecasting Methods: Respecting the Limits of Determinism Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-17 Issue: 19 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:19:p:16-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Geoff Allen Title: Commentary: The View from a Quantitative Forecaster Abstract: Allen responds to Adam Gordon’s article in issue 19 of Foresight: The Boundaries of Quantitative Forecasting Methods: Respecting the Limits of Determinism Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-19 Issue: 19 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:19:p:18-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark Little Title: Commentary: The Limitations of Quant Models--Compared to What? Abstract: Little responds to Adam Gordon’s article in issue 19 of Foresight: The Boundaries of Quantitative Forecasting Methods: Respecting the Limits of Determinism Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-21 Issue: 19 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:19:p:20-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: The Holt-Winters Approach to Exponential Smoothing: 50 Years Old and Going Strong Abstract: Holt-Winters (HW) is the label we frequently give to a set of procedures that form the core of the exponential-smoothing family of forecasting methods. The basic structures were provided by C.C. Holt in 1957 and his student Peter Winters in 1960. Those of you unfamiliar with exponential smoothing should look at the brief tutorial on the next page. In this column, Paul Goodwin discusses recent research that extends the application of the HW method to deal with some important issues faced by the business forecaster. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-33 Issue: 19 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:19:p:30-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert A. Stahl Title: Executive S&OP: Managing to Achieve Consensus Abstract: Bob Stahl continues his series of columns on Executive S&OP with his framework for managing the final two steps of the five-step S&OP process, the Pre-Meeting and the Executive Meeting. Visit his earlier columns in Foresight for case studies of the demand-planning and supply-planning steps. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-38 Issue: 19 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:19:p:34-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andreas Graefe Title: Are Prediction Markets More Accurate than Simple Surveys? Abstract: In this new installment of the prediction markets column, Andreas Graefe summarizes the evidence he has uncovered on whether the design and implementation of a prediction market is worth the extra cost and effort involved, compared to a simple survey of the judgment of key individuals. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-43 Issue: 19 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:19:p:39-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Energy Forecasts to 2035: A Review of the 2010 Energy Outlook Report of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract: Sohn reviews the 2010 Energy Outlook. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-46 Issue: 19 Volume: Year: 2010 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:19:p:44-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joe Smith Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: Who Should Own the Business Forecasting Function? Abstract: Where in an organization should the forecasting function be located? This most fundamental question is often overlooked, and there are organizations that have stumbled into a preliminary placement without having really thought through the options. In this first installment of their new column, Joe Smith and Simon Clarke offer their prescriptions and the arguments behind them. As you will see, they agree that minimizing functional bias is the most important consideration, but they recommend quite different structural approaches to accomplish this. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-7 Issue: 20 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:20:p:4-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tom Ross Author-Name: Rob Dhuyvetter Title: Commentaries on Foresight article by Joe Smith and Simon Clarke, Who Should Own the Business Forecasting Function? Abstract: Ross and Dhuyvetter give their reactions to the Smith/Clarke article in the same issue of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-9 Issue: 20 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:20:p:8-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Orrell Title: Book Review of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Abstract: David Orrell reviews this recently published book by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-11 Issue: 20 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:20:p:10-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Author-Name: John Boylan Author-Name: Ruud Teunter Title: Classification for Forecasting and Inventory Abstract: ABC classifications are commonly used to streamline a large number of SKUs into fewer, more manageable categories. As Aris, John, and Ruud explain, this classification may be useful for inventory control, but it does not provide much help in the selection of appropriate forecasting methods. The authors demonstrate a need for a classification that accounts for demand patterns and customer characteristics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-17 Issue: 20 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:20:p:12-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy L. Pearson Title: Forecasting Future Technology Abstract: Pearson writes a follow-up article to his earlier piece In Foresight’s Summer 2008 issue, “Looking at Tomorrow Today: The What, Why, and How of Futuring for Forecasters.” Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-28 Issue: 20 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:20:p:24-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alec Finney Author-Name: Martin Joseph Title: Getting Your Forecasting and Planning Fundamentals Right Abstract: In their previous Foresight article (Winter 2009), Alec Finney and Martin Joseph described the Forecasting Mantra, the elements of which guide the proper creation and presentation of the forecast. Now they employ the Mantra as a basis for an audit of an organization’s forecasting performance. The audit reveals problems with the process, enables the prioritizing of new investments in process improvement, and helps a company avoid overspending. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-36 Issue: 20 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:20:p:29-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John E. Mello Author-Name: Robert A. Stahl Title: How S&OP Changes Corporate Culture: Results from Interviews with Seven Companies Abstract: John Mello and Bob Stahl have each contributed many publications about the Sales and Operations Planning process and its dependence on changes in corporate culture. For this article, they have teamed up to examine the cultural impact of S&OP in seven companies, interviewing individuals who were present before and after S&OP implementations. The interview results reveal remarkable changes in corporate culture and greater satisfaction with corporate performance. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-42 Issue: 20 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:20:p:37-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marcus O’Connor Title: Review of Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error Abstract: O’Connor reviews this recent book by Kathryn Schulz Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-6 Issue: 21 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:21:p:5-6 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Projecting Success: Don't Forget the Base Rate Abstract: In Foresight’s Hot New Research Section, Goodwin comments on a recent article by Jerker Denrell and Christine Fang, published in Management Science, in which the authors warn against trusting intuition while overlooking the underlying rate. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-9 Issue: 21 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:21:p:7-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Accuracy versus Profitability Abstract: In a perfect world, forecast accuracy would be a reliable guide to the monetary value of the forecast; more accurate forecasts would be more profitable. But who lives in a perfect world? In real life, accuracy and monetary value do not necessarily correspond and, as Roy shows, can move in opposite directions. His examples reveal disconnections between accuracy and profitability among financial forecasters and how the same might occur among sales forecasters. To better explain this situation, Roy distinguishes between (a) the small movements in a target variable that occur ordinarily, and (b) the large changes that occur only occasionally. His point is similar to that made by Wil Gorr’s accompanying article in this issue on forecasting exceptional demands (p. 22): not only might we need different models to forecast exceptional vs. ordinary demand, but also different forecast-accuracy metrics. This clearly is a lesson worth attending to. Demand forecasters interested in devising appropriate forecasting performance metrics should also read Paul Goodwin’s Hot New Research column “Taking Stock: Assessing the True Cost of Forecast Errors,” in Foresight’s Fall 2009 issue. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 10-15 Issue: 21 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:21:p:10-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-name: Wilpen L. Gorr Title: Forecasting Exceptional Demand: Not the Same as Forecasting Ordinary Demand Abstract: Many forecasting models designed to track and forecast trend and seasonality do well enough for ordinary demand conditions but are challenged by exceptional patterns such as sudden large jumps and turning points. Wil Gorr proposes a framework for exceptional-demand situations that is based on Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis, in which models for exceptional demand forecasts work as a team with models to forecast ordinary demands. The ROC framework gives less emphasis to traditional forecast accuracy metrics such as the MAPE in favor of metrics to distinguish between real and false signals of exceptional demand. A similar warning about the use of conventional accuracy metrics is presented in Roy Batchelor’s article, “Accuracy vs. Profitablity”, in this issue of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 16-22 Issue: 21 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:21:p:16-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alec Finney Author-Name: Martin Joseph Author-Name: Hannah Kurth Title: Getting Your Forecasting and Planning Fundamentals Right: A Case Study Abstract: In our previous issue (Winter 2011), Alec Finney and Martin Joseph advised readers on how to fine-tune a company’s forecasting and planning fundamentals. They recommended a three-step audit to focus on: • How good do we think we are? • In reality, how good are we? • How good should we strive to become? This new article illustrates how the audit process plays out within an organization. It provides two accounts based on a case study of a global biotechnology specialty-care group based in Paris, France. Alec and Martin’s story presents the auditors’ viewpoint. It describes the way the audit and subsequent analysis probed beneath the surface to reveal not only consensus views but polarized and outlying views. Hannah’s story is the internal view at the company, describing the challenges faced, how the interviews were received, and how the recommendations were presented to management. She concludes with an assessment of the benefits that accrued. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-34 Issue: 21 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:21:p:30-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Rieg Author-Name: Ramona Schoder Title: Corporate Prediction Markets: Pitfalls and Barriers Abstract: While there has been a lot of discussion about prediction markets, including several articles in Foresight, the empirical record of their use in corporations (CPM) is meager, with hardly a handful of cases published. Robert and Ramona look at the track record of CPM with a skeptical eye, pointing out a number of difficulties that stand in the way of corporate implementation of a prediction market. Understanding these will give insight into what managers should avoid and what they should look for in order to bring about a successful CPM. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-40 Issue: 21 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:21:p:35-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alfred G. Cuzán Title: Predicting the Results of the 2010 Midterm Elections: Judgment, Econometrics, and Prediction Markets Abstract: Alfred Cuzán offers his postmortem on forecasts made for the midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. His evaluation compares the judgment of three experts, six statistical models, and one (betting) prediction market. It seems like the best political forecasts emerge when forecasters place their bets. However, this issue of Foresight contains a related article on corporate prediction markets (p. 35), where the challenges of implementation are arguably greater than those in election markets. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41-44 Issue: 21 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:21:p:41-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Title: Commentary on Forecast Error vs. Forecast Accuracy Abstract: Hoover comments on concerns expressed by David Hawitt in a letter to the editor of Foresight, published in issue 18. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45 Issue: 21 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:21:p:45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark Little Title: Commentary on Forecast Error vs. Forecast Accuracy Abstract: Little comments on concerns expressed by David Hawitt in a letter to the editor of Foresight, published in issue 18. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46 Issue: 21 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:21:p:46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles Abstract: Steve Morlidge sets out to provide a set of guiding principles for the organisational process in forecasting as a complement to Scott Armstrong’s milestone volume, Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. This article is part 1 on the subject and covers the foundation and design principles. Part 2 (Foresight, Fall 2011) covers process, behavioral, and improvement principles. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-12 Issue: 22 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:22:p:5-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Pearson Title: Using the International Futures Global Modeling System (Ifs) for Alternative Scenarios by the Numbers Abstract: Roy Pearson examines a valuable new Web-based application – the IFs model – that enables forecasters to deal with the future impacts of changes in their organization’s external environment. These can be product or market changes, but technological, demographic, social, political, and environmental changes as well. Of course, no business has the time, budget, and expertise to build a global model of the scope and size necessary to quantify the effects of all of these changes, especially for decades down the road. So the IFs model offers a way for you to map future alternative paths of major concern to you or your organization, providing a quantitative foundation for focusing discussions and planning. And it’s free to the public. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 13-19 Issue: 22 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:22:p:13-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert A. Stahl Author-Name: Stewart Levine, J.D. Title: Executive S&OP and the Cycle of Resolution: Resolving Conflict to Align Human Energy Abstract: In previous Foresight columns Bob Stahl has written that success in using S&OP comes not only from the proper application of tools, techniques, and processes (the hard stuff), but from the behavior of people with the willingness to get tough issues out in the open (the soft stuff). Now he and Stewart Levine team up to discuss the Cycle of Resolution model for promoting the behaviors required to turn conflict into collaboration, achieving a shared vision of the future. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 20-26 Issue: 22 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:22:p:20-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joe Smith Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: Forecasting Tools: Have They Upgraded the Forecasting Process? Abstract: This is the second Foresight article in a series called Joe and Simon Sez. Smith and Clarke offer their opinions on the subject of forecasting tools. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 33-36 Issue: 22 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:22:p:33-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future Abstract: Sohn reviews the recently published book by Laurence C. Smith, The World in 2050. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 37-40 Issue: 22 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:22:p:37-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Wilfried Despagne Title: A Forecasting Support System for Temperature-Controlled Transport Abstract: Wilfried Despagne describes a Web-based forecasting support system, “Horizons,” that was designed for a French subsidiary of a European temperature-controlled-transport group. The major challenge was the adaptation of the system to more than 70 different transportation hubs, requiring a significant level of automation and a highly transparent user interface. This article considers the key components of the design and implementation of Horizons, and the factors that led to its successful deployment. Wilfried’s work demonstrates that a good forecasting-support system requires much more than development of forecasting models: A user-friendly graphical interface, a supportive organizational culture, and the know-how of the decision-makers all play a critical role. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages 41-46 Issue: 22 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:22:p:41-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles Part 2 Abstract: In our previous issue (Summer 2011), Steve Morlidge introduced a set of guiding principles for the organizational forecasting process. To make progress, he argues in this second installment, “forecasters need to move beyond the exchange of experience and the simplistic peddling of best practice and seek to lay out a set of principles that collectively define forecasting craftsmanship based on an amalgam of technical knowledge, research, and hard-won experience.” Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-9 Issue: 23 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:5-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: High on Complexity, Low on Evidence: Are Advanced Forecasting Methods Always as Good as They Seem? Abstract: Goodwin covers the pros and cons of complexity in advanced forecasting methods and warns that recommendations based on them should be supported by strong evidence of reliability. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-12 Issue: 23 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:10-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alec Finney Title: The Senior Managers' Monthly Forecasting Report Abstract: Finney’s article focuses attention on the variance between revenue forecasts and the budget for the year and what growth is required for revenues to catch up with budget. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-15 Issue: 23 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:13-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Boylan Title: A “Softer” Approach to the Measurement of Forecast Accuracy Abstract: Foresight’s Summer 2010 issue contained a letter to the editor from David Hawitt, suggesting that forecast managers would be more receptive to hearing about forecast accuracy rather than forecast error. If forecast error is measured by the average absolute percentage error (MAPE), then forecast accuracy would be the complement, 100% - MAPE. David argued that while reporting (e.g.) a 40% average error might generate “knee-jerk reactions and the creation of unrealistic goals,” reporting 60% accuracy stimulates executive thinking about “What can we do to improve this?” Then, in the Spring 2011 issue of Foresight, Mark Little and Jim Hoover offered their commentaries on the Hawitt recommendation. Mark had a different take on the issue: “Rather than attempt to express accuracy in a form executives think they understand, it may be better to focus on the improvements in business outcomes (the KPIs) that result through better forecasts.” The issue was carried forward in recent Linked-In exchanges, which John Boylan mentions below in his reflections. John sees the discussion in terms of the different perspectives of academics and practitioners, and attempts to reconcile these positions through the lens of Soft Systems Methodology. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-20 Issue: 23 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:16-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Author-Name: Roland Martin Title: Percentage Errors Can Ruin Your Day (and Rolling the Dice Shows How) Abstract: Foresight has printed many articles about the calculation, interpretation, and especially the dangers of percentage error metrics, such as the MAPE. Stephan and Roland now add to the list of dangers, showing how you can be led astray if you use the MAPE to select a best forecasting method or to reward forecast accuracy. Minimizing the MAPE is often not a good idea. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-27 Issue: 23 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:21-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Adam Gordon Title: Book Reviews of Scenario Planning in Organizations, by Tom Chermack and Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future, by George Wright and George Cairns Abstract: Gordon reviews these two recently published books. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-36 Issue: 23 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:34-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dan Hamilton Title: Forecasting with Structural Models and VARs: Relative Advantages and the Client Connection Abstract: With this article, Foresight introduces a new section of methods tutorials. Our intention is to provide a broad overview of a method for those who are not currently specialists in that particular area, and possibly to stimulate new thinking about the proper use and goals of the methodology. Since the early 1980s, structural (“econometric”) models and vector autoregressions (VARs) have been competing forecasting techniques. The structural approach has been widely used since the 1950s by macroeconomic forecasters. The VAR approach was forcefully advocated for macroeconomic forecastuse by Christopher Sims in his 1980 Econometrica article. In our first Foresight tutorial, Dan Hamilton describes the two techniques and discusses what each implies for the client connection. Certain aspects of the discussion are oriented to macroeconomic forecasting, but the main conclusions of the article apply to any forecast setting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-42 Issue: 23 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:37-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andreas Graefe Title: Prediction Markets and the “Trough of Disillusionment” Abstract: Foresight’s Spring 2011 issue included Robert Rieg and Ramona Schoder’s article “Corporate Prediction Markets: Pitfalls and Barriers” on the hurdles that must be overcome to properly establish a corporate prediction market (CPM). They enumerated four principal obstacles: (1) identifying the appropriate subject to be forecast; (2) defining the subject clearly enough for people to know what they are betting on; (3) motivating and securing an adequate number of participants; and (4) embedding the CPM within the corporate culture. Their conclusion: only selective use of a CPM would be feasible and practical. In the following response, Foresight’s Prediction Market Editor Andreas Graefe notes that certain of the challenges can readily be overcome, and that a promising role for CPMs lies ahead – if the conditions for success are better understood. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-46 Issue: 23 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:43-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Rieg Author-Name: Ramona Schoder Title: Reply to Foresight Article “Trough of Disillusionment” by Andreas Graefe Abstract: Rieg and Schoder reply to the article mentioned, published in the same issue of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46-47 Issue: 23 Volume: Year: 2011 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:46-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Staff Title: A CEO’S Perspective on S&OP and Forecasting: An Interview with Phil Dolci Abstract: See title. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-6 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:5-6 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Patrick McSharry Title: Stream Analytics for Forecasting Abstract: Huge volumes of data now flow from on-line sources — the internet, mobile telephony, weather sensors, and much more. With this data surge, there is an emerging need for computational algorithms to instantly process data streams, sift through large volumes of information, and extract and interpret knowledge. Patrick McSharry provides an overview of the challenges and opportunities arising from data streams. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-12 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:7-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andreas Graefe Author-Name: Randy Jones Author-Name: Scott Armstrong Author-Name: Alfred Cuzán Title: The PollyVote’s Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Abstract: In 2004, Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzán, and Randy Jones launched the PollyVote to see if combining forecasts from different methods could improve the accuracy of election forecasting relative to individual forecasting methods. Scott had previously reported evidence that combining nearly always reduced forecast error below the typical individual method. As you’ll see in this article, Polly has performed up to and perhaps beyond expectations. Now she looks a year ahead (as of this writing) to predict the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. She thinks it will be close. You can read more about the origin and computation of the PollyVote in an article we printed in the very first issue of Foresight: Cuzán and colleagues (2005). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-14 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:13-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Richard Nadeau Author-Name: Michael S. Lewis-Beck Title: Does a Presidential Candidate’s Campaign Affect the Election Outcome? Abstract: Prevailing wisdom has it that campaigns don’t matter when it comes to forecasting U.S. presidential elections; the incorporation of direct campaign measures into statistical forecasting models does not appear to improve forecasting accuracy. Richard Nadeau and Michael Lewis-Beck now challenge that assertion, based on consideration of the quality and clarity of a candidate’s campaign. They find small but statistically significant campaign effects that can affect the outcome in an otherwise close election. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-18 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:15-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Scott Parrott Author-Name: John Stamey Author-Name: Timothy Burcham Title: Forecasting Rounds of Golf Abstract: Back in the 1970s, Thomas Saaty introduced a methodology – the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) – for obtaining and consolidating the judgments of panelists to aid in decisions of choice. AHP has been successfully applied in the forecasting of tourism, corporate earnings, and other areas. In this article, Scott, John, and Timothy describe the use of the AHP to develop judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts of golf demand at a course in South Carolina. The statistical forecasts account for the trend and seasonal components of golf demand, while expert judgments were obtained on the effects of weather, economics, and local events, as well as course quality, availability, and pricing. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-24 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:19-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles, Preview to the Commentaries Abstract: Foresight Editor Len Tashman introduces commentaries on Steve Morlidge’s two-part article, Guiding Principles of the Forecasting Process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-31 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:30-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: There are More Fundamental Issues Abstract: Gilliland comments on Steve Morlidge’s articles on Guiding Principles of the Forecasting process (published in Foresight, issues 22 and 23). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-34 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:32-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alec Finney Title: A Practical Handbook on Best Practice Abstract: Finney comments on Steve Morlidge’s articles on Guiding Principles of the Forecasting process (published in Foresight, issues 22 and 23). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-36 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:35-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark A. Moon Title: Elaboration on the Foundation Principles Abstract: Moon comments on Steve Morlidge’s articles on Guiding Principles of the Forecasting process (published in Foresight, issues 22 and 23). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-38 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:37-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Title: Elaboration on the Behavioral Principles Abstract: Mello comments on Steve Morlidge’s articles on Guiding Principles of the Forecasting process (published in Foresight, issues 22 and 23). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Title: Foundation Principles for Supply Chain Partners Abstract: Ganeshan comments on Steve Morlidge’s articles on Guiding Principles of the Forecasting process (published in Foresight, issues 22 and 23). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-41 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:40-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Catt Title: The Morlidge Guiding Principles vs. Armstrong's Principles of Forecasting Abstract: Catt comments on Steve Morlidge’s articles on Guiding Principles of the Forecasting process (published in Foresight, issues 22 and 23). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-43 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:42-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Guiding Principles: Reply to Commentaries Abstract: Morlidge replies to several commentaries on his two-part article on Guiding Principles of Forecasting, published in Foresight, issues 21 and 22. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-45 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:44-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Outrageous Fortunes: How Daniel Altman Sees the Future of the Global Economy Abstract: Foresight Editor Tashman covers the key points of Altman’s recent book. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46 Issue: 24 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Book Review of Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman Abstract: See title Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-9 Issue: 25 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:25:p:7-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Fildes Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Guiding Principles for the Forecasting Support System Abstract: The most recent three issues of Foresight featured Steve Morlidge’s encyclopedic rendition of “Guiding Principles” for an organization’s forecasting process. The guiding principles were divided into five classifications: Foundation Principles, Design Principles, Process Principles, Behavioural Principles, and Principles for Maintenance and Improvement. Much food for thought was offered there, as we have seen in the many commentaries on Steve’s principles the journal has since printed and continues to solicit. Not explicitly addressed was the organization’s software support for the forecasting function. Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin now extend the guiding principles to the specific concerns of software support. Having spent many years examining the ways organizations develop and use forecasting support systems (FSS), Robert and Paul now offer a valuable checklist for firms seeking to evaluate and possibly upgrade their software solutions. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-15 Issue: 25 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:25:p:10-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joe Smith Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: Our Best Worst Forecasting Mistakes Abstract: For some odd, unfathomable reason, there seems to be a scarcity of articles documenting our missteps as forecasters as opposed to those lauding our successes. Sensing a real need here that they would be eminently capable of filling, Joe and Simon, our intrepid duo, focus in this segment on their most painful forecasting gaffes. Hopefully, their confessions will serve to prevent similar future mistakes – and provide a point of commiseration for those of us (OK, all of us) with similar mishaps. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-20 Issue: 25 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:25:p:16-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Good Patterns, Bad Patterns Abstract: Past occurrences of an event very often serve as analogies for forecasting the impact of the new occurrence of this event. The reliability of the analogy, Roy tells us, lies in the proper balance of data interpretation and good judgment. Uncritical examination of the past data can lead to false analogies – the extrapolation of patterns that do not apply to the case at hand. Judgment unsupported by the data can make for some foolish investments. It’s an important lesson, and Roy presents three current examples to illustrate the proper and improper application of event analogies. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-30 Issue: 25 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:25:p:26-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: J. Scott Armstrong Title: Predicting Job Performance: The Moneyball Factor Abstract: Choosing the right person for a given position is a highly complex task, J. Scott Armstrong yet experts believe that their experience allows them to do this well. Michael Lewis’s 2003 book Moneyball and the recent film based on the book provide a counterpoint, showing that the statistical procedures used by Billy Beane, general manager of professional baseball’s Oakland Athletics, are more effective in predicting job performance than are experts’ judgments. In this article, Scott Armstrong traces the emergence of the argument in favor of statistical procedures to writings in the 1950s by Paul Meehl and shows how Meehl’s principles, carried forward by Billy Beane, can be applied to improve business performance today. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-34 Issue: 25 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:25:p:31-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rogelio Oliva Author-Name: Noel Watson Title: Designing the Forecasting Process to Manage Bias: Commentary on the Guiding Principles Abstract: As a follow up to Steve Morlidge’s series on Guiding Priciples in previous issues of Foresight, here the authors offer comments on the principles governing process design, particularly regarding the management of forecasting biases. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-37 Issue: 25 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:25:p:35-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert A. Stahl Author-Name: Joseph F. Shedlawski Title: Executive S&OP: Overcoming the “Catch-22” of Implementation Abstract: Bob and Joe ask why, in certain companies, S&OP has failed to catch on. They believe the main culprit to be the “catch-22” of change management: if top management is involved from the start, the changes required by S&OP implementation may cause organizational discomfort, but failing to involve top management undermines chances of the project’s success. You’re damned if you do, and damned if you don’t. The authors propose a four-step action plan to hit the problem head on and increase the odds of successful implementation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-41 Issue: 25 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:25:p:38-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy L. Pearson Title: Forecasting for Fun Outside Your Cubicle Abstract: Pearson suggests you have some fun by trying your hand at Forecasting World Events; participation online enables you to consider and forecast events and outcomes in many fields and around the world. The questions relate to real future possibilities with consequences, making participation interesting and thought provoking. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-44 Issue: 25 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:25:p:42-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sean Schubert Title: Forecastability: A New Method for Benchmarking and Driving Improvement Abstract: The Spring 2009 issue of Foresight carried a special feature section on assessing forecastability. Articles by Peter Catt, John Boylan, and Stephan Kolassa offered valuable insights into the twin forecastability questions of (a) how successful have our forecasts been, and (b) how much improvement is still possible. Now Sean Schubert picks up the mantle and shows how to create internal benchmarks that relate the forecast accuracy to product-specific attributes, which he calls forecastability DNA. Sean’s approach can promote greater objectivity in setting forecast-accuracy targets. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-15 Issue: 26 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:26:p:7-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Interview of Sean Schubert Abstract: Interview with Schubert, whose recent article is in issue 26. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16 Issue: 26 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:26:p:16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alec Finney Title: The Forecasting Meeting: Questions from On High Abstract: Every month, Fred the Forecaster, Colin the Controller, and Stan the Supply Guy get together to discuss current forecasting problems… sorry, forecasting “opportunities.” This month… Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-19 Issue: 26 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:26:p:17-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Maryam Mohammadipour Author-Name: John Boylan Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Title: The Application of Product-Group Seasonal Indexes to Individual Products Abstract: Forecasting seasonal products can be difficult when the products are fairly new or highly variable. The Spring 2007 issue of Foresight contained a special feature on modeling seasonality in short time series. The articles addressed the issues of minimum sample size requirements and surveyed the options for applying the seasonal patterns that are in aggregates (e.g. product group) as well as in analogous product data to the individual product at hand. Now, Maryam, John, and Aris show specifically how to form product-group seasonal indexes and explain how to determine when group indexes will be superior to individual indexes for forecasting the individual products. They also make the important point that there may be better ways to form product groups for seasonal forecasting than a company’s standard product groupings. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-26 Issue: 26 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:26:p:20-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marjolein van Baardwijk Author-Name: Philip Hans Franses Title: Hemlines and the Economy: Which Goes Down First? Abstract: Women’s hemlines are falling to ankle length this year. Could this mean that another recession is in the works? Not at all, say the authors; rather, the legend that hemlines are a lead indicator of the economy is apparently backwards. Hemlines, in fact, appear to lag behind economic activity by three years, so it seems the current drop in hemlines is a reaction to the most recent economic recession. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-28 Issue: 26 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:26:p:27-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stavros Asimakopoulos Title: Forecasting Software: Improving the User Experience Abstract: Forecasting software applications now include functionality for virtually any forecasting process and any size business. While the functionality may be available to meet varied forecasting needs, there continues to be a lack of adequate attention paid to usability and the user experience(UX). In this article, Stavros Asimakopoulos discusses the problems users encounter with forecasting software and how these problems can drain organizational resources. Stavros recommends specific software characteristics and features that result in enhanced usability. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-39 Issue: 26 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:26:p:34-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Book review of Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler’s Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think Abstract: Sohn reviews this recent publication. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-42 Issue: 26 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:26:p:40-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Randy Jones Title: Reliable Forecasts of the 2012 Presidential Election Abstract: Even though the U.S. presidential election is still several months away, we now have early forecasts of considerable reliability. In this article, Randy Jones discusses the methods used, presents the latest forecasts they provide, and suggests Internet links to follow for updates during the remaining campaign. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-46 Issue: 26 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:26:p:43-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Allan Lichtman Title: Does Obama Keep the Keys to the White House? Abstract: Lichtman answers this question. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 47-48 Issue: 26 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:26:p:47-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Sinan Gönül Author-Name: Dilek Önkal Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts? Abstract: Mistrust is a serious problem for organizations. So much has been written about functional biases and misaligned incentives that one wonders how anyone can trust a forecast provider. Well, now we have some studies that shed new light on the factors that can build or impede trust in forecasting. In this article, Sinan, Dilek, and Paul discuss the latest research findings on the steps you can take to improve trust and reduce dysfunctional behavior in the forecast function. Their conclusions offer a check list of steps to eliminate or at least minimize the element of mistrust in your forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-9 Issue: 27 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:27:p:5-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lauge Valentin, Title: It's About the Quality of Interaction Abstract: Valentin comments on the recent Foresight article by Gonul, Onkal, and Goodwin about whether and why forecasts should be trusted. (Issue 27, Fall 2012) Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-11 Issue: 27 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:27:p:10-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Parks Title: The Forecaster's Capability and Empowerment Abstract: Parks comments on the recent Foresight article by Gonul, Onkal, and Goodwin about whether and why forecasts should be trusted. (Issue 27, Fall 2012) Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-13 Issue: 27 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:27:p:12-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John P. Unger Title: Trust in Forecasting, and the Myth of Neutrality Abstract: Unger comments on the recent Foresight article by Gonul, Onkal, and Goodwin about whether and why forecasts should be trusted. (Issue 27, Fall 2012) Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-15 Issue: 27 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:27:p:14-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Title: The View Across the Supply Chain Abstract: Ganeshan comments on the recent Foresight article by Gonul, Onkal, and Goodwin about whether and why forecasts should be trusted. (Issue 27, Fall 2012) Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-17 Issue: 27 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:27:p:16-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eric Stellwagen Title: Exponential Smoothing: The Workhorse of Business Forecasting Abstract: Foresight is pleased to introduce a new series of tutorials on tried and true methods for business forecasting. These tutorials are designed to be nontechnical overviews of important methodologies, focused on providing insights into how the methods work and illustrating their strengths and limitations. Our hope is that they will enable forecasters to make more informed use of the software that supports the forecasting function. We lead off with Eric Stellwagen’s tutorial on Exponential Smoothing, the most fundamental of our time-series approaches to forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 23-28 Issue: 27 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:27:p:23-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert A. Stahl Author-Name: Thomas F. Wallace Title: S&OP Principles: The Foundation for Success Abstract: Bob Stahl and Tom Wallace have written the book – indeed, many of them – on successfully implementing Sales and Operations Planning in businesses. Here they summarize key takeaways, offering organizations a checklist on the elements of proper implementation and the tactics for overcoming pushback from organizational inertia. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-34 Issue: 27 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:27:p:29-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Amy Mansfield Title: Executive S&OP Implementation – Do It Right Abstract: Amy Mansfield draws on her successful experiences in S&OP implementation to provide guidance on how to do it right—and offers the hopeful reminder that successful implementation is not the finish line, but only the beginning of a better informed, more energized and aligned organization. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-39 Issue: 27 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:27:p:35-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Two Notable New Forecasting Texts: Principles of Business Forecasting by Keith Ord & Robert Fildes Forecasting: Principles and Practice by Rob Hyndman & George Athanasopoulos Abstract: Kolassa reviews these two recent publications. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-45 Issue: 27 Volume: Year: 2012 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:27:p:40-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roland Martin Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Forecasting to Meet Demand Abstract: Misforecasting demand will cost profits and threaten reputations, market share, and even the business itself. Roland Martin and Stephan Kolassa draw on their expertise with retail companies to examine the major challenges for demand forecasting and the choices the demand forecaster must make. Their consideration of the options provides a valuable guidepost to the demand forecaster in measuring demand, handling questionable data, making adjustments to automatic forecasts, and choosing appropriate performance metrics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-11 Issue: 28 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:28:p:5-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christian SchŠfer Title: How to Separate Risk from Uncertainty in Strategic Forecasting Abstract: Christian SchŠfer takes us on a tour through pharmacological forecasting of the market potential for a new drug. En route, weÕll see how risk and uncertainty are defined and made operational. Christian also offers pertinent examples of graphical representations that are effective for instructing senior management about the uncertainty surrounding drug forecasts Ð information that is crucial to executive decision making. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-18 Issue: 28 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:28:p:12-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joe Smith Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: Fostering Communication That Builds Trust Abstract: The Fall 2012 issue of Foresight contained the special feature article ÒWhy Should I Trust Your Forecasts?Ó by M. Sinan GšnŸl, Dilek …nkal, and Paul Goodwin. In that piece, the authors identified the essential ingredients of trust in a forecaster as goodwill, competence (with humility), transparency, and communication. Now Joe and Simon draw on their own experiences to expand on the key role of effective communication in establishing trust. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-22 Issue: 28 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:28:p:19-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jane B. Lee Title: The Role of S&OP in a Sluggish Economy Abstract: Economic forecasters have often been criticized for failing to predict the magnitude Ð or even the occurrence Ð of severe economic downturns. But even had they gotten the forecasts right, it isnÕt at all certain that businesses would have reacted appropriately in adjusting their targets and plans to the new reality. Jane Lee now provides us with a prescription for facing the reality of downward adjustments, utilizing the S&OP process for gaining buy-in on new forecasts, new plans, and new production and inventory targets. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-36 Issue: 28 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:28:p:30-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jason Boorman Title: S&OP: Five Steps to Gaining Necessary and Appropriate Buy-In Abstract: Jason Boorman manages a highly successful S&OP process Ð but, as he notes in this article, getting it up and running wasnÕt easy. Jason describes the five critical steps that paved the way for his effective S&OP implementation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-42 Issue: 28 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:28:p:37-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Interview with Jason Boorman Abstract: A short interview with Jason Boorman, author of a recent Foresight article, about his career and specialties in forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43 Issue: 28 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:28:p:43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jeff Greer Title: GIS: The Missing Tool for Supply-Chain Design Abstract: Jeff Greer, VP of Operations for KVH Industries, supports a global supply chain for satellite communications equipment. In this role, he has developed expertise in enhancing supply-chain performance with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. KVH has used his pioneering GIS model to facilitate executive thinking about growth strategies and improved supply-chain performance. In this piece, Jeff tells us how any company might benefit from GIS and surveys available GIS solutions Ð from free downloads to more pricey consulting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-49 Issue: 28 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:28:p:44-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andreas Graefe Author-Name: J. Scott Armstrong, Author-Name: Randall J. Jones Author-Name: Alfred G. Cuz‡n Title: Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote Abstract: The authors explain how, for the third time since its appearance in 2004, the PollyVote (www.polyvote.com) has demonstrated the value of combining forecasts to predict the two-party popular vote in U.S. presidential elections. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 50-51 Issue: 28 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:28:p:50-51 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Orrell Title: Nate SilverÕs The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail Ð But Some DonÕt Abstract: Shortly after the 2012 presidential election, Orrell reviews Nate SilverÕs book on forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 52-54 Issue: 28 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:28:p:52-54 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kevin Foley Title: Forecasting Revenue in Professional Service Companies Abstract: ÒWhat will our revenue be this year?Ó Your firmÕs financial experts will spend countless hours on this one question; it will keep the CEO, CFO, and possibly the investment advisors and shareholders working late into the night. Kevin Foley writes here that, for professional service firms, models of revenue forecasts should effectively represent the opportunities, proposals, and backlog in the sales pipeline, and not merely the judgmental projections of sales and project teams. He offers a template for constructing revenue forecasts and using them to improve organizational processes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-13 Issue: 29 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:5-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mike Gilliland Title: FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices Abstract: Mike Gilliland has long advocated the use of a forecast value added (FVA) metric to assess the effectiveness of managerial adjustments to statistical forecasts as well as other individual phases of the forecasting process. FVA has caught on in many companies as an aid in eliminating unnecessary or even harmful actions Ð something for all businesses to think about. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-18 Issue: 29 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:14-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Dougherty Author-Name: Chris Gray Title: S&OP and Financial Planning Abstract: How can a company align its financial and operational plans? The key, according to John and Chris, is the S&OP process, which can supply critical monthly updates for financial planning, budgeting, investment decisions, and cash-flow management. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-25 Issue: 29 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:19-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Title: Collaborative Forecasting: Beyond S&OP Abstract: John MelloÕs previous articles for Foresight have shed new light on organizational (mis-) behavior in forecasting and the cultural adaptations resulting from S&OP implementations. Now he describes the potential benefits from Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR), a process that extends the internal collaboration in S&OP to external collaboration across the supply chain. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-31 Issue: 29 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:26-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gloria Gonz‡lez-Rivera Title: Rare Events: Limiting Their Damage Through Advances in Modeling Abstract: Rare events such as tsunamis and avalanches often result in severe losses, but such Òacts of GodÓ have been beyond the predictive ability of our forecasting models. Advances are being made, however, in forecasting rare economic events. As Gloria tells us, the key is to account for system connectedness to single out the fragile side of an economic network, to quantify the cross-linkages among financial and other institutions, and to perform stress tests that, when credible, will be able to reduce the uncertainty associated with a potentially catastrophic event. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-42 Issue: 29 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:38-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tom Willemain Title: Practical Time Series Forecasting: A Hands-On Guide, 2nd edition By Galit Shmueli Abstract: Willemain reviews this recent publication by Galit Shmueli; his first line is ÒThe book is a little gem.Ó Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-44 Issue: 29 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:43-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Megatrends and Game Changers: The U.S. National Intelligence CouncilÕs ÒGlobal Trends 2030: Alternative WorldsÓ Abstract: Sohn reviews the National Intelligence CouncilÕs fifth quadrennial report, which Òprovides a framework to stimulate thinking about the rapid geopolitical and technological changes unfolding in the world today,Ó and their implications for the future. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-48 Issue: 29 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:45-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: How Good Is a "Good" Forecast?: Forecast Errors and Their Avoidability Abstract: With this article, Foresight continues its examination of forecastabilityÐ the potential accuracy of our forecasting efforts Ð which is one of the most perplexing yet essential issues for the business forecasting profession. We first tackled the subject with a special feature section in our Spring 2009 issue. The introduction there indicated that assessing the forecastability of a historical time series can give us a basis for judging how successful our modeling has been (benchmarking), and how much improvement we can still hope to attain. ForesightÕs Summer 2012 issue advanced the discussion with a feature article showing how to use a productÕs DNA Ð product and market attributes such as the length, variability, and market concentration of sales Ð to develop benchmarks for forecast accuracy. The essential idea here is to better understand the specifics of those items we are trying to forecast and to set expectations accordingly. Certain key concepts emerged from the articles in that section that helped clarify the meaning of forecastability and the challenges underlying its analysis: ¥ The lower and upper bounds of forecast accuracy Ð the worst and best accuracy to be expected ¥ The relationship between the volatility of our sales histories over time and their forecastability ¥ The limitations of the coefficient of variation in measuring forecastability and a potentially better alternative in a metric of entropy Now Steve Morlidge offers a tantalizing new perspective on forecastability. His approach seeks to determine what portion of forecast error for any item is avoidable, in principle and in practice. The simplicity of the metric he creates should be very appealing to business forecasters, seeing that it offers a convenient way to compare accuracy results across products. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-11 Issue: 30 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:5-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Is Success a Result of Skill or Luck? Abstract: Roy Batchelor reviews The Success Equation Ð Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, a recent book by Michael J. Mauboussin (Harvard Business Review Press, Boston MA, 2012) Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-15 Issue: 30 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:12-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sean Schubert Title: Tracking and Improving Our Performance in the Skill-Luck Continuum Abstract: Sean Schubert reviews The Success Equation Ð Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, a recent book by Michael J. Mauboussin (Harvard Business Review Press, Boston MA, 2012) Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-19 Issue: 30 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:16-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eric Stellwagen Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: ARIMA: The Models of Box and Jenkins Abstract: Foresight tutorials are designed to be nontechnical overviews of important methodologies, enabling business forecasters to make more informed use of their forecasting software. The Fall 2012 issue contained Eric StellwagenÕs tutorial ÒExponential Smoothing: The Workhorse of Business Forecasting.Ó Eric and Len now team up to discuss ARIMA, the models popularized by Box and Jenkins. They examine the pros and cons of ARIMA modeling, provide a conceptual overview of how the technique works, and discuss how best to apply it to business data. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28-33 Issue: 30 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:28-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Come Rain or Shine: Better Forecasts for All Seasons Abstract: This is Paul GoodwinÕs 11th Hot New Research column for Foresight, a feature that seeks to offer non-technical summaries of important new research for students, teachers, and practitioners of forecasting. See the list of his other subjects at the end of the article. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-37 Issue: 30 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:34-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Torsten Schmidt Author-Name: Simeon Vosen Title: Forecasting Consumer Purchases Using Google Trends Abstract: Torsten Schmidt and Simeon Vosen have done extensive research on the potential benefits of using Google TrendsÕ product search data for forecasting economic behavior. Their results point strongly to the predictive value of using Google indicators in forecasting models. Here, they provide an introduction to the Google indicators of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and compare the performance of PCE forecasting models that use the Google data with those that donÕt. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-41 Issue: 30 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:38-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Title: Book review of Supply Chain Forecasting Software, by Shaun Snapp Abstract: Hoover reviews SnappÕs recent publication, commenting that it Òcovers areas not typically seen in either the forecasting or the supply-chain literature Ð namely, how the major ERP forecasting tools work, and how to make them work better.Ó Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-44 Issue: 30 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:29:p:42-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sujit Singh Title: Supply Chain Forecasting & Planning: Move On from Microsoft Excel? Abstract: Surveys of business use of forecasting support tools reveal that MicrosoftÕs Excel spreadsheet software continues to reign supreme in smaller organizations. As Sujit Singh explains, there are many virtues to this solution; however, the balance of pros and cons begins to tip as organizational size and complexity increase. Sujit provides a comprehensive examination of the efficacy of relying on Excel to support the forecasting and planning functions and then describes the gains and costs of moving up to a best-of-breed planning application. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 6-13 Issue: 31 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:31:p:6-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tim Januschowski Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Author-Name: Martin Lorenz Author-Name: Christian Schwarz Title: Forecasting with In-Memory Technology Abstract: In-memory technology will radically transform the world of enterprise information systems Ðaccording to our enterprising quartet of Tim, Stephan, Martin, and Christian. Their article provides a comprehensive description of the elements of in-memory technology and the ways it might improve the timeliness, flexibility, and speed of forecast generation. In the authorsÕ view, it may enable a new, interactive, enterprise-wide way of working with forecasting tools and applications. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-20 Issue: 31 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:31:p:14-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jeffrey Mishlove Title: The Future of Financial Market Forecasting: Five Trends Worth Watching Abstract: Jeffrey Mishlove, author of The Alpha Interface series of empirical research on the financial markets, highlights five trends that have the power to alter the landscape of financial forecasting. His message is essential food for thought for all of us in the forecasting profession: only rarely is it possible Ð or even advisable Ð to stick to our tried-and-true methods of the past. It is crucial for forecasters to stay on top of advances in such areas as constantly increasing computer capability, Ònatural languageÓ processing, and expanding the power and complexity of algorithms. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-27 Issue: 31 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:31:p:21-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Editor Title: Forecaster in the Field Abstract: ForesightÕs editor interviews Jeffrey Mishlove, author of The Alpha Interface series, whose article--The Future of Financial Market ForecastingÑappears in issue 31 of the journal. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28 Issue: 31 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:31:p:28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Title: Demand and Supply Integration: The Key to World-Class Demand Forecasting by Mark A. Moon Abstract: In his review of MoonÕs new book, Mello covers several of the authorÕs topics: DSI vs. S&OP, the importance of collaboration, the framework of a well-run DSI process, and the implementation of DSI across a supply chain, as well as suggesting the target audience for MoonÕs bookÑ-business professionals who manage demand-forecasting processes, practicing managers, and VPs and C-level executives. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-37 Issue: 31 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:31:p:35-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Pope Title: Keeping Up with the Quants: Your Guide to Understanding + Using Analytics by Thomas H. Davenport and Jinho Kim Abstract: In his review of this recent book by Davenport and Kim, Pope maintains that Òproblem solving is not the core of analytical thinking. A solution in a vacuum solves nothing. Problems must be framed correctly to reflect a relevant context, then the results need to be communicated in a manner which facilitates correct interpretation.Ó In line with this philosophy, the bookÕs authors recommend six steps of analytical thinking within three stages: framing the problem, solving it, and communicating and acting on results. These stages, and the necessary steps, are explained in the book. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-40 Issue: 31 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:31:p:38-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Joseph Author-Name: Alec Finney Title: Using Process Behaviour Charts to Improve Forecasting and Decision Making Abstract: Martin and Alec have long studied the application of statistical process control (SPC) concepts to forecasting and planning. The objective of SPC is to distinguish ÒnormalÓ variation in the output of a process from a signal that the process is changing Ð and possibly out of control. The authors show 1) how Process Behaviour Charts (PBCs) can be created and used to good effect within S&OP and budgeting by providing context for observed changes in sales, and 2) whether they are signalling that a forecasting problem should be addressed. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41-44 Issue: 31 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:31:p:41-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Gray Title: New Directions in Managing the Forecasting Process Abstract: Chris Gray, noted S&OP author, summarizes the most important elements of the business worldÕs new focus on proper management of the forecasting process. The primary requirements as he sees them: ¥ Maintain accountability and transparency ¥ Compare different forecasting methods ¥ Recognize that one size does not fit all ¥ Apply statistical process control ¥ Broaden forecasting into sales planning ¥ Document assumptions ¥ Improve forecastability through improved product design Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 49-52 Issue: 31 Volume: Year: 2013 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2013:i:31:p:49-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sujit Singh Title: Critical Skills for the Business Forecaster Abstract: Sujit Singh details the knowledge and proficiencies essential for todayÕs business forecasters and planners. His list is long Ð perhaps even a bit intimidating Ð and serves as a virtual job description for organizational candidates. If youÕve earned the title of Òsuccessful forecaster,Ó take gratification in the skills youÕve learned and brought to the job. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-11 Issue: 32 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:32:p:5-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stavros Asimakopoulos Author-Name: George P. Boretos, Author-Name: Constantinos Mourlas Title: Forecasting ÒIn the PocketÓ: Mobile Devices Can Improve Collaboration Abstract: The increasing popularity of PDAs, smartphones, tablet computers, and other mobile devices opens up new opportunities for communication and collaboration on business forecasts. As the authors tell us, mobile forecasting (m-forecasting) applications may streamline approaches to collaboration between retailers and suppliers, thus contributing to the provision and exchange of product information, especially since forecasts are strongly tied to local context knowledge. In this article, we present specific approaches for the future of m-forecasting applications. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-18 Issue: 32 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:32:p:13-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Geoff Allen Title: Regression Modeling for Business Forecasting Abstract: Foresight tutorials are designed to be nontechnical overviews of important methodologies, enabling business forecasters to make more informed use of their forecasting software. In this tutorial on regression modeling, Geoff Allen takes us through the origin and structure of a regression model, lays out the key conditions for obtaining reliable regression forecasts, and illustrates the diagnostic tests that help improve model specification. Foresight tutorials are designed to be nontechnical overviews of important methodologies, enabling business forecasters to make more informed use of their forecasting software. In this tutorial on regression modeling, Geoff Allen takes us through the origin and structure of a regression model, lays out the key conditions for obtaining reliable regression forecasts, and illustrates the diagnostic tests that help improve model specification. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-33 Issue: 32 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:32:p:26-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Do Forecasting Methods Reduce Avoidable Error? Evidence from Forecasting Competitions Abstract: The set of M-competitions Ð comparing the forecasting accuracy of two dozen common time series methods Ð is a landmark in our understanding of how different methods fare on a variety of data types. For example, one common procedure, the trend line extrapolation available in Excel, emerged as the least accurate of all, and probably should be considered a must to avoid. Yet, as Steve Morlidge tells us here, the implications for practitioners, especially demand forecasters, are not widely understood and quite possibly overlooked by most. Steve not only summarizes the key implications, he also uses a selection of data from the M3-Competition Ð the most recent (year 2000) and most comprehensive Ð to shed additional light on the bounds of forecastability: the best (and worst) forecast accuracy we can expect to achieve. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-39 Issue: 32 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:32:p:34-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Orrell Title: The Beauty of Forecasting Abstract: In a 2009 news article entitled ÒHow Did Economists Get It So Wrong?,Ó Paul Krugman wrote, ÒThe economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive- looking mathematics, for truth.Ó In this article, David Orrell asks if the same could be said of forecasters. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-42 Issue: 32 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:32:p:40-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tao Hong Title: Energy Forecasting: Past, Present, and Future Abstract: When you flick that switch, you expect the lights to go on Ð but the business of keeping them on is not nearly as straightforward. Dr. Tao Hong offers a practical overview of energy forecasting; itÕs an important task, one that electric utilities have been doing daily for over a century, but now with new challenges. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-48 Issue: 32 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:32:p:43-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Getting Real about Uncertainty Abstract: Goodwin introduces his article with an incident in Italy when seven people (engineers, scientists, and a civil servant) were jailed following an earthquake in the city of L?Aquila in which 309 people died. At the trial it was alleged that they had failed in their duty by not properly assessing and communicating the risk that an earthquake in the area was imminent. Their mistake had been that they had simply conveyed the most likely outcome ? no earthquake ? rather than a probabilistic forecast that might have alerted people to the small chance of a strong earthquake. Goodwin points out, however, that incorporating uncertainty into forecasts is not straightforward. Probabilistic forecasts need to be presented so that they are credible, understandable, and useful to decision makers. Getting reliable estimates of uncertainty in the first place poses its own challenges, as he goes on to demonstrate. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-7 Issue: 33 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:33:p:4-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jeff VanDeursen Author-Name: John Mello Title: A Roadmap to Implementing CPFR Abstract: For many companies, especially those in the consumer-products industries, formal collaborations with supply-chain partners can mitigate if not prevent miscommunications, misinformation, and missed opportunities in forecasting and fulfilling consumer demand. Jeff and John build on their experience in an implementation of a Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) process to lay out a roadmap for companies to follow, sidestepping the known hurdles along the route. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-12 Issue: 33 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:33:p:8-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Title: Commentary: Challenges along the Road to Implementing CPFR Abstract: In his Commentary on the Roadmap, Ram Ganeshan emphasizes that ?CPFR is not a silver bullet for improving forecasts, but rather a set of structured processes that improve communication and coordination between supply chain partners on matching product supply and demand.? The key challenges, however, involve ensuring data integrity, standardizing forecasts, revising transactional relationships, and a willingness to deal with some significant organizational changes that could cause discord among functional units. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-14 Issue: 33 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:33:p:13-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Title: Clickstream Analysis for Forecasting Online Behavior Abstract: Ganeshan describes how retailers can benefit using Clickstream Analysis for Forecasting Online Behavior. A clickstream is an online trail, a prospective customer?s sequence of keystrokes or mouse clicks made as they consider making a purchase on the Internet. Through capture and analysis of the clickstream, a customer can provide value to a seller in helping to understand the customer?s intentions and thus improve their purchasing experience ? as well as the retailer?s profitability. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-19 Issue: 33 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:33:p:15-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Forecast Quality in the Supply Chain Abstract: Building on his two previous publications in Foresight on the measurement of forecastability, Steve shows how forecast quality can be objectively measured using the relative absolute error (RAE) metric and how this metric can be used to reveal the potential for improvements in forecast accuracy. He presents compelling evidence that many companies fail to achieve levels of relative error that are better than a simple ?same as last period? na‹ve forecast, and that around 50% of individual forecasts fail to meet this benchmark. He makes it clear that, while there is a great need for improvement in forecast quality, there is the potential for forecasters to accomplish just such improvement. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-31 Issue: 33 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:33:p:26-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: The Bet between Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon over Earth?s Future Abstract: Foresight Long-Range Forecasting Editor Ira Sohn expands upon Paul Sabin?s recent book The Bet to describe ?the scholarly wager of the decade? and how it mirrored at the time a larger national debate between future-thinking optimists and pessimists. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-34 Issue: 33 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:33:p:32-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: S. McKay Curtis Title: Predictive Business Analytics: Forward-Looking Capabilities to Improve Business Performance by Lawrence S. Maisel and Gary Cokins Abstract: Predictive Business Analytics by Lawrence Maisel and Larry Cokins seeks to show how companies can improve their usage of analytical tools. Reviewer McKay Curtis offers a blunt assessment of the book?s value to experienced analysts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-37 Issue: 33 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:33:p:35-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Geoff Allen Title: The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting by Alan Greenspan Abstract: The Map and the Territory is Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan?s reflection on our most recent economic upheaval (which is normally dated to begin following the end of his term as chairman). Reviewer Geoff Allen tells us: ?What you will learn from this book are some nice, personal Greenspan stories and a lot of data analysis to support a particular Greenspan viewpoint. Whether you will be persuaded to that viewpoint based on the evidence presented is another matter.? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-40 Issue: 33 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:33:p:38-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Title: Introduction to Forecasting by Aggregation Abstract: Forecasting by temporal aggregation is the process of aggregating demands from higher-frequency to lower-frequency time buckets Ð for example, aggregating daily data to weekly Ð and using the aggregate time series to generate forecasts. This intuitively appealing approach will almost always reduce demand uncertainty. Still, the benefits of temporal aggregation may not be well understood by managers, which may make implementation a harder sell, and the necessary software applications are not adequately supported in commercial forecasting packages Ð at least, not yet. In this foundational article, Aris describes the approaches to temporal aggregation and summarizes the benefits and challenges faced in implementation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 6-11 Issue: 34 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:34:p:6-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Author-Name: Nikolaos Kourentzes Title: Improving Forecasting via Multiple Temporal Aggregation Abstract: In most business forecasting applications, the decision-making need we have directs the frequency of the data we collect (monthly, weekly, etc.) and use for forecasting. In this article, Fotios and Nikolaos introduce an approach that combines forecasts generated by modeling the different frequencies (levels of temporal aggregation). Their technique augments our information about the data used for forecasting and, as such, can result in more accurate forecasts. It also automatically reconciles the forecasts at different levels. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-17 Issue: 34 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:34:p:12-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Interview with Aris Syntetos Abstract: Syntetos is asked about his introduction to the field of forecasting, his experience working in a university, and his forecasting connections with businesses. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18 Issue: 34 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:34:p:18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Reviews of 2 books--Fortune Tellers: The Story of AmericaÕs First Economic Forecasters, written by Walter A. Friedman, and In 100 Years: Leading Economists Predict the Future, edited by Ignacio Palacios-Huerta Abstract: For the first book (a look backward), Sohn reviews FrieedmanÕs Òhistorical overview of the pioneers of forecasting, of the economic environments in which they worked, and of tool sets and methodologies they used to generate their forecasts.Ó These fathers of forecasting include Roger Babson, John Moody, Irving Fisher, C. J. Bullock, Wesley Clair Mitchell, and Herbert Hoover, among others. Each manÕs methods and forecasts are covered in the review. It concludes with the mention of second-generation stock market forecasters like Benjamin Graham, Ralph Nelson Elliott, Lawrence Klein, Otto Eckstein, and others. For the second book (a look ahead), Sohn explains author ÒPalacios-HuertaÕs idea to invite some of the best brains in economics Ð three of them already awarded Nobel prizes Ð to speculate on the state of the world and material well-being in 2113.Ó Sohn then refers to the predictions of these current well known forecasters on several hot topics: population, climate, inequality, strife, work, and education. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-24 Issue: 34 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:34:p:19-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: S. McKay Curtis Author-Name: Frederick C. Zahrn Title: Forecasting for Revenue Management: An Introduction Abstract: Revenue management (RM) is concerned with maximizing the revenue earned from a given set of resources. Practitioners in this field work to (1) define the precise set of products, (2) optimally set product prices, and (3) optimally control product availability. In this article, McKay and Fred describe key elements of revenue management and the challenges of forecasting in this context. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-38 Issue: 34 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:34:p:32-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Using Relative Error Metrics to Improve Forecast Quality in the Supply Chain Abstract: How can we identify our best opportunities to improve forecast accuracy? Steve Morlidge concludes his four-part Foresight series on forecast quality by offering an approach based on (a) product volumes and variability, and (b) a forecastability metric that assesses forecast accuracy in relation to the accuracy of a na•ve (i.e., no change) forecast. The metric helps supply-chain forecasters set meaningful targets for improvement, quantifies the scope for improvement, and tracks progress toward final goals. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-46 Issue: 34 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:34:p:39-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Spies Ð A Simple Method for Improving Forecasts? Abstract: In this Hot New research column, Goodwin cites a recent blog of Uriel Haran and Don Moore of Ben-Gurion University, who Òpresent a simple method that aims to improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts involving probability distributions.Ó The authors call their method SPIES: Subjective Probability Interval Estimates. Goodwin goes on to explain their system, comment on its reliability, and give advice about using it. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 35 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:35:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: Role of the Sales Force in Forecasting Abstract: Mike draws on his own and othersÕ experience to identify the key issues in using sales force input to the forecasts. As you would no doubt expect, these are not black-and-white concerns, but demonstrate the importance of thinking through how sales input should be provided, how to motivate reliable input, and how to judge its value to the organization. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-13 Issue: 35 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:35:p:8-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joe Smith Title: Commentary on the Role of the Sales Force in Forecasting Abstract: One of three short commentaries on Michael GillilandÕs lead article in Foresight (Fall 2014): Role of the Sales Force in Forecasting Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14 Issue: 35 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:35:p:14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rob Dhuyvetter Title: Commentary on the Role of the Sales Force in Forecasting Abstract: One of three short commentaries on Michael GillilandÕs lead article in Foresight (Fall 2014): Role of the Sales Force in Forecasting Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-16 Issue: 35 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:35:p15-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lauge Valentin Title: Commentary on the Role of the Sales Force in Forecasting Abstract: One of three short commentaries on Michael GillilandÕs lead article in Foresight (Fall 2014): Role of the Sales Force in Forecasting Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-18 Issue: 35 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:35:p:17-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Igor Gusakov Title: Data-Cube Forecasting for the Forecasting Support System Abstract: In this article, Igor examines the process of data-cube forecasting and its potential for improving an organizationÕs forecasting support system (FSS). The process utilizes online analytical processing (OLAP) to embed time-series methods and forecast adjustments, thus integrating key aspects of forecast generation, reconciliation, and reporting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 25-32 Issue: 35 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:35:p:25-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Interview with Igor Gusakov Abstract: The Forecaster in the Field section of Foresight features an interview with Russian forecaster Igor Gusakov--an S&OP planning consultant in Moscow and author of an article in this issue--about his experiences in that field and culture. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-34 Issue: 35 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:35:p:33-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Giulio Zotteri Author-Name: Matteo Kalchschmidt Author-Name: Nicola Saccani Title: Forecasting by Cross-Sectional Aggregation Abstract: Rather than automatically proceeding to forecast with data at the same level of aggregation as that required for an organizationÕs operations, the authors explain that the best level of aggregation for forecasting should be chosen by the forecasters in consideration of the trade-off between sampling error (data inadequate to generate reliable forecasts) and specification error (data too aggregated to represent diverse demands). Doing so frees the forecaster from an unneeded constraint, thus opening new opportunities to improve forecasting performance. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-41 Issue: 35 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:35:p:35-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rob J. Hyndman Author-Name: George Athanasopoulos Title: Optimally Reconciling Forecasts in a Hierarchy Abstract: We know that when forecasting the product hierarchy, reconciliation is invariably needed to make the sum of lower-level forecasts equate to the upperlevel forecasts. The authors argue that the traditional Bottom-Up, Top-Down, and Middle-Out procedures for reconciliation all fail to make best use of the available data. They show we can do better by taking weighted averages of the forecasts from different levels, an approach they call optimal reconciliation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-48 Issue: 35 Volume: Year: 2014 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2014:i:35:p:42-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Fildes Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Title: Improving Forecast Quality in Practice Abstract: Robert and Fotios discuss the results of their important new survey on the key elements for improving the quality of the forecasting function. A lot more is involved here than software and statistical methodology; it?s also about removing organizational impediments, developing appropriate performance benchmarks and motivational incentives, and improving data reliability and flow within the organization. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-12 Issue: 36 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:36:p:5-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark A. Moon Title: Commentary on Improving Forecast Quality in Practice Abstract: Mark comments on the preceding Foresight article about Improving Forecast Quality in Practice, by Robert Fildes and Fotios Petropoulos. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-15 Issue: 36 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:36:p:13-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Title: Internal and External Collaboration: The Keys to Demand-Supply Integration Abstract: Effective demand-supply integration (DSI) is an increasingly acute problem in industry, prompted by pressure from large retailers on manufacturers to provide higher levels of service while reducing inventory costs. Meanwhile, the advent of online ordering has further complicated matters by creating multiple distribution options. John Mello examines how companies are currently using internal and external collaboration to improve demand and supply integration, thus achieving increased customer service with reduced inventory. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-20 Issue: 36 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:36:p:16-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tonya Boone Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Title: Commentary on The Keys to Demand-Supply Integration: Extension Beyond Fast-Moving Consumer Goods Abstract: Tonya and Ram give their views on the preceding Foresight article by John Mello. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-23 Issue: 36 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:36:p:21-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Financial Crises and Forecasting Failures Abstract: A 2014 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report examined the world economies? 2007-09 financial crises to establish their causes and impacts, as well as the initiatives governments and central banks undertook to deal with them. Roy Batchelor, Foresight?s Financial Forecasting Editor, expands on the IMF volume to glean the implications for our forecasting models and how they need to adapt to changing reality. In his accompanying commentary, Jeff Mishlove takes issue with Roy?s critique of the IMF?s expansionist policy prescriptions, pointing out the macroeconomic success of these initiatives in the U.S. relative to the doldrums in the EU economies. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28-33 Issue: 36 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:36:p:28-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy L. Pearson Title: Always in Season: Giving Due Respect to Seasonality in Monthly Forecasting Abstract: Overlooking the often dominant role of seasonality in short-term forecasting can lead to confusion in interpreting sales changes and a lost opportunity to reduce forecast error. Roy explains the seasonality puzzle and how to improve forecasting performance and credibility by properly accounting for seasonal effects. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-41 Issue: 36 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:36:p:35-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Forecaster in the Field: Interview with Clive Jones Abstract: Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42 Issue: 36 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:36:p:42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Owen Davies Author-Name: William Halal Title: Strategic Technology and Social Forecasts Abstract: TechCast Global ? www.TechCastGlobal.com ? is a system that generates forecasts for technological innovations and major social trends, examining the impact on business and individuals. Its forecasts are derived from the collective judgment of 130 expert forecasters, scientists, and academics from a wide variety of fields. This article presents a sampling of the current TechCast forecasts for the next several decades. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-47 Issue: 36 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:36:p:43-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark Moon Author-Name: Pete Alle Title: From Sales & Operations Planning to Business Integration Abstract: In this uniquely collaborative effort, Mark Moon, academic and author, and Pete Alle, a Vice President of Supply Chain, present guideposts for overcoming many obstacles to effective business integration through S&OP or its associated labels. They describe the common failings of organizational implementations and convincingly show that success requires both top-down leadership commitment and bottom-up incentive policies and training programs to move corporate culture away from silo behaviors. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-12 Issue: 37 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:37:p:5-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas Goldsby Author-Name: Chad Autry Author-Name: John Bell Title: Thinking Big! Incorporating Macrotrends into Supply Chain Planning and Execution Abstract: We know that many businesses have a short-term focus in their planning and operations. In this article, Tom, Chad, and John note that companies often take a reactive posture to crises in their supply chains, failing to consider and manage events that present important risks and opportunities. Drawing from their new book Global Macrotrends and Their Impact on Supply Chain Management, the authors examine four key macrotrends and describe how these may well have profound effects on supply chains beyond the immediate future. The authors encourage businesses to devise Òstrategies that can seize advantages when competitors are blindsided or simply fall behind.Ó Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-18 Issue: 37 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:37:p:13-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Leontine Alkema Author-Name: Patrick Gerland Author-Name: Adrian Raftery Author-Name: John Wilmoth Title: The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty Abstract: The United Nations publishes projections of populations around the world and breaks these down by age and sex. Traditionally, they are produced with standard demographic methods based on assumptions about future fertility rates, survival probabilities, and migration counts. Such projections, however, were not accompanied by formal statements of uncertainty expressed in probabilistic terms. In July 2014 the UN for the first time issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100. These projections quantify uncertainty associated with future fertility and mortality trends worldwide. This review article summarizes the probabilistic population projection methods and presents forecasts for population growth over the rest of this century. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-24 Issue: 37 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:37:p:19-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas Wolfram Title: Have Corporate Prediction Markets Had Their Heyday? Abstract: Despite great acclaim for the potential and use of prediction markets as an efficient tool for aggregating individual judgments, corporate adoption has been limited. To find out why, Thomas Wolfram examined existing research and interviewed several dozen key business executives. He reports that problems with overall acceptance of the corporate prediction market (CPM) often stem from a lack of trust by management as well as a greater business focus on big data and social-media content. However, hope for the CPM persists, if certain obstacles can be finessed. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-36 Issue: 37 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:37:p:29-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Measuring the Quality of Intermittent-Demand Forecasts: ItÕs Worse than WeÕve Thought! Abstract: In this eye-opening article, Steve Morlidge shows that when our demand histories are intermittent, we should rethink the use of our most common accuracy metrics for selecting a best forecast method. The problem is acute because many software applications use these metrics for performance evaluation and method selection; in doing so, they potentially provide us with poor feedback and inferior models, resulting in harmful consequences for inventory management. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-42 Issue: 37 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:37:p:37-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Demand Forecasting for Inventory Control, by Nick T. Thomopoulos Abstract: StephanÕs review of this new book by Thomopoulos begins, ÒStay away from this book.Ó The reviewer goes on to explain both his reservations about its content and method as well as the features he likes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-45 Issue: 37 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:37:p:43-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Editor Len Tashman Title: Interview with Fotios Petropoulos Abstract: Interview with ForesightÕs New Editor for Forecasting Support Systems Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46 Issue: 37 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:37:p:46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: When Forecasting in the Supply Chain Gets Tough Abstract: Paul writes about the unique forecasting challenges created by two special situations--intermittent demand and promotions--and suggests ways they might be handled. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-8 Issue: 38 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:38:p:5-8 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tonya Boone Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Author-Name: Robert L. Hicks Title: Incorporating Google Trends Data Into Sales Forecasting Abstract: Forecasters are learning that Internet search data can be valuable additions to their models. In this new study, Tonya, Ram, and Robert show specifically how to take search-based data from Google Trends and build them into an individual firm?s forecasting model. Their case study shows the potential for improved accuracy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 9-14 Issue: 38 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:38:p:9-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: A Better Way to Assess the Quality of Demand Forecasts Abstract: In his last Foresight article, ?Measuring the Quality of Intermittent Demand Forecasts? in the Spring 2015 issue, Steve showed that certain common error metrics?the MAE and MAPE?can readily lead to the selection of inappropriate forecasting methods when demands are intermittent. Intermittent demands are a special case of asymmetric (skewed) distributions, for which Steve proposed an alternative metric, the bias-adjusted mean absolute error (BAMAE). In this article Steve makes the argument that the BAMAE can serve as the most valid and appropriate error metric for any distribution of demands, symmetric or asymmetric. It is well worth giving this metric some thought. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-20 Issue: 38 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:38:p:15-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Harpal Singh Author-Name: Sanjiv Raman Author-Name: Eric Wilson Title: Practical Considerations in Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis Abstract: A business forecast is normally produced by applying overrides and modifications to an initial statistical forecast. Whether these adjustments to the statistical forecast improve forecast performance is always an important question?one to which the Forecast Value Added (FVA) concept can be applied. Harpal, Sanjiv, and Eric identify some of the practical issues in applying FVA analysis within a demand-management process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 25-30 Issue: 38 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:38:p:25-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Manzoor Chowdhury Author-Name: Sonia Manzoor Title: Judgmental Adjustments to Forecasts in the New Economy Abstract: Manzoor and Sonia see an ever-increasing use of judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts. In this large part, they attribute this dependence to the complexities of the ?new economy,? in which, for example, there has been a ?proliferation of distribution channels,? thus fragmenting the historical data on which statistical forecasting relies. So, despite improving technology and systems capabilities, forecasters and planners may face growing pressures to override their statistical forecasts, and perhaps greater difficulty than ever in meeting management?s expectations while keeping personal and organizational biases contained. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-36 Issue: 38 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:38:p:31-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Interviewer Title: Interview with Pete Alle Abstract: The Foresight interviewer talks with Pete Alle, Vice President of Supply Chain at Oberweis Dairy, about the present forecasting challenges he faces. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37 Issue: 38 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:38:p:37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Three Cheers for GDP?Warts and All! Abstract: GDP?gross domestic product?is considered the most important and reliable measure of an economy?s performance, despite much criticism of its omissions. Ira Sohn expands on the publication of two new books on the subject to highlight the development, virtues, and limitations of the GDP and our national income-accounting framework. The two books are GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History, by Diana Coyle, and The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers that Rule Our World, by Zachary Karabell. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:38-44 Issue: 38 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:38:p:38-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Title: Forecasting Support Systems: Ways Forward Abstract: Forecasting Support Systems (FSSs) are designed to facilitate the performance of an organization?s forecasters and planners. An FSS always includes a set of statistical methods, but can also provide (a) support for management judgment and adjustments, (b) procedures for storing, retrieving, and presenting information, and (c) an intuitive user interface. In this article, Fotios Petropoulos, Foresight?s FSS Editor, offers new ideas on how the current FSS can be improved. He sees three dimensions to the improvement strategy: (i) technological, through open-source software and Web-based features; (ii) methodological, in the adoption of state-of-the-art methods; and (iii) judgmental, supporting interaction between statistical output and managerial judgment. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-11 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:5-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Commentary #1: Technology, Databases, Statistics, and Processes Abstract: Stephan responds to a featured article in the journal by Fotios Petropoulos, Forecasting Support Systems: Ways Forward. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-13 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:12-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Commentary #2: Where Is the Support for Judgment? Abstract: Paul responds to a featured article in the journal by Fotios Petropoulos, Forecasting Support Systems: Ways Forward. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-15 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:14-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mike Gilliland Title: Commentary #3: Just Don't Do the Stupid Stuff! Abstract: Mike responds to a featured article in the journal by Fotios Petropoulos, Forecasting Support Systems: Ways Forward. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-17 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:16-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eric Stellwagen Title: Commentary #4: The Corporate Backbone of an FSS Abstract: Eric responds to a featured article in the journal by Fotios Petropoulos, Forecasting Support Systems: Ways Forward. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-19 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:18-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Igor Gusakov Title: Commentary #5: A Productive Triangulation Abstract: Igor responds to a featured article in the journal by Fotios Petropoulos, Forecasting Support Systems: Ways Forward. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-21 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:20-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Daniele Amberti Title: Commentary #6: Commentary: The Way to Go Abstract: Daniele responds to a featured article in the journal by Fotios Petropoulos, Forecasting Support Systems: Ways Forward. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 22-23 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:22-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Neill Wallace Author-Name: John Mello Title: Collaborative Culture: The New Workplace Reality Abstract: In the first of two articles in this section, Neill Wallace and John Mello peek into an organizational future in which employees are increasingly performing collaborative work. They examine the need to sustain effective internal collaboration, and they describe the significant collateral benefits that ensue from a collaborative culture. Their major takeaway is the guidance they provide to management to nourish a collaborative culture and the warning they give to be aware of practices that work against this goal. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-35 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:31-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jack Harwell Title: An Executive Guide to Hiring Successful Demand Planners Abstract: As Jack Harwell pointedly notes here, ?Executives should understand that hiring the most technically competent people won?t necessarily result in the most effective demand planners.? Jack explains that many softer skills are just as critical for successful forecasting and planning in a collaborative business environment based on sales and operations planning. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-39 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:36-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Forecaster in the Field: Interview with Jack Harwell Abstract: Interview with Jack Harwell, Sole Proprietor of Opsman, LLC, and previously Vice President for Global Sourcing and Distribution at Radio Shack and Vice President, Supply Chain, at Amerock. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Interviewer Title: Forecaster in the Field: Interview with Neill Wallace Abstract: Interview with Neill Wallace, author of An Unconventional Leader (2014), a best-selling book that rewrites the rules of office politics and leadership in the contemporary workplace. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christian Schafer Title: Review of Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry, 2nd ed. Abstract: Schafer reviews the recent book by Arthur C. Cook, Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry, ed. 2. He ?would recommend Arthur Cook?s Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry, second edition, to anyone seeking an engaging and informative account of the art of strategic forecasting for drug demand.? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-43 Issue: 39 Volume: Year: 2015 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:39:p:42-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Predicting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Abstract: Morlidge first describes the contents of the recent book by Tetlock and Gardner, then suggests several takeaways for business forecasters. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-11 Issue: 40 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:40:p:8-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Konstantinos Katsikopoulos Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Title: Bias-Variance Trade-offs in Demand Forecasting Abstract: In supply-chain forecasting, we have traditionally used point forecasts to predict the mean level of demand per time period. In doing so, we place emphasis on finding forecast methods that minimize bias in the forecasts, because forecast bias ultimately leads to either excessive or inadequate inventory levels. This emphasis on avoiding bias, however, can neglect variability in the forecasts. Konstantinos and Aris explain in this article that the neglect of forecast variability is a mistake, because forecast variance is a factor - along with, and of the same importance as, bias - that determines the Mean Squared Error (MSE) of a forecast method, which is often (and possibly too often) used to set safety stocks. The authors show that, in selecting a forecast method, there is in fact a trade-off between forecast bias and forecast variance. Their provocative takeaway is that simple methods tend to have large bias but low variance, while complexity reduces bias at the expense of increasing variance. Hence, simple forecasting methods, even if their resulting forecasts are biased, might be preferable to complex methods for minimizing forecast error. Most generally, the right amount of complexity should be sought. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-19 Issue: 40 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:40:p:12-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Sometimes It's Better to Be Simple than Correct Abstract: In the preceding article, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos and Aris Syntetos discussed the trade-offs between forecast bias and forecast variance in choosing a suitable forecasting method. Simple methods, they explain, tend to have large bias but low variance, while complexity reduces bias but at the expense of increasing variance. In short, simple methods might be preferable to complex methods, even if the resulting forecasts are biased. Stephan Kolassa now extends their argument to show that even if we know what the correct model is for the data to be forecast - that is, even if we know the seasonal pattern and other influencing factors for a time series - it may still be better to choose a simpler model, one that excludes one or more of these variables. This is a fascinating takeaway. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-26 Issue: 40 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:40:p:20-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dean Sorensen Title: Beyond S&OP and IBP to Enterprise Planning and Performance Management Abstract: Foresight's Spring 2015 issue featured the article "From Sales & Operations Planning to Business Integration" by Mark Moon and Pete Alle. Although the terms Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) and Integrated Business Planning (IBP) are often used interchangeably, Moon and Alle consider IBP to be the more comprehensive label, since it implies engagement beyond sales and operations to bring finance and senior leadership into supply chain planning. These authors argue, however, that despite good intentions and extraordinary effort, IBP implementations often fail to achieve effective business integration. For better success, they urge changes to organizational structure, processes, and culture. Dean Sorensen builds on their thesis here, outlining a still broader vision of IBP, one that extends beyond supply chain to encompass enterprise planning. He observes that, as complexity rises, capability gaps are exposed in processes that are supported by separate S&OP, financial planning, budgeting, and forecasting applications. He describes how technology innovations can close these gaps by enabling integration of strategic, financial, and operational planning and performance-management processes. He likens the importance and value of these innovations to the financial and operational convergence that gave rise to Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) two decades ago. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-36 Issue: 40 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:40:p:27-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Editors Title: Interview with Dean Sorensen Abstract: Interview with Sorensen, a management consultant engaged in helping manufacturers improve planning, managing, and governing. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37 Issue: 40 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:40:p:37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark Blessington Title: Sales Quota Accuracy and Forecasting Abstract: Sales-forecasting authority Mark Blessington examines an often overlooked topic in this field: the efficacy of different approaches used by companies to set sales quotas. He compares (a) annual versus quarterly quota-setting accuracy and (b) the use of exponential smoothing versus traditional quota-setting methods. Mark's findings shed new perspectives on quota-setting policies. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-49 Issue: 40 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:40:p:44-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Owen Davies Author-Name: William Halal Title: TechCast's Top Ten Forecasts Abstract: Derived from the collective judgment of 130 expert forecasters, scientists, and academics from a wide variety of fields, TechCast Global (www.TechCastGlobal.com) forecasts technological innovations, social trends, and wild cards for strategic planning in business and government. In this article, Owen Davies and William Halal present their top ten strategic forecasts with the biggest impact over the next decade. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 50-56 Issue: 40 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:40:p:50-56 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Econs vs. Humans: Which Are We? Book Review of Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics by Richard H. Thaler Abstract: Editor and reviewer Tashman writes, ÒMisbehaving is a wonderfully entertaining account of Richard ThalerÕs four-decade-long journey to convince fellow economists that they canÕt ignore the human element of decision making Ð that there are just too many behavioral anomalies that are unexplainable by the standard economic theory.Ó These include several SIFs (seemingly irrelevant factors), like will power, endowments, inertia, and hindsight bias. These and others are explained in the review. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-6 Issue: 41 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Spring File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:41:p:4-6 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Misbehaving Agents Abstract: Goodwin writes about forecasters who sometimes ÒmisbehaveÓ in their predictions, explaining the reasons and thinking behind these actions. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-9 Issue: 41 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Spring File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:41:p:7-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Misbehaviour in Forecasting Financial Markets Abstract: Batchelor poses this question: How can it be, in spite of strong incentives to make good forecasts, that there is no consensus on how best to analyze and predict financial markets? And how can so many apparently crazy methods survive and even prosper? The author says forecasting in this area is much different from, say, forecasting the weather, and goes on to discuss the challenges, pitfalls, and vagaries of the process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-13 Issue: 41 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Spring File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:41:p:10-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Title: Toward a More Rational Forecasting Process: Eliminating Sales-Forecasting Misbehaviors Abstract: Though there are many reasons a sales forecast can be inaccurate, like the influence of external factors, Mello asserts that internal factors can also be operating, an example of which is forecasting misbehaviorsÑamong them enforcing, hedging, second guessing, and sandbaggingÑand suggests ways of controlling or minimizing such misbehaviors. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-17 Issue: 41 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Spring File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:41:p:14-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kostas Nikolopoulos Author-Name: Fotio Petropolous Title: Misbehaving, Misdesigning, and Miscommunicating Abstract: ItÕs said that there are two kinds of sins: sins of omission and sins of commission. In this short commentary, the authors try to unfold some of the sins committed by forecast users and vendors and also comment on the miscommunication of forecast uncertainty from the perspective both of users and systems. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-19 Issue: 41 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Spring File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:41:p:18-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Henry Canitz Title: Overcoming Barriers to Improving Forecast Capabilities Abstract: Despite enormous progress in forecasting methods, processes, and systems over the last few decades, it appears these benefits have yet to be reaped by many organizations, rooted as they are in ÒbasicÓ forecasting approaches. We still see excessive reliance on spreadsheets, immature planning infrastructure, and ignorance of research findings that could be of real value. In this article, his first for Foresight, Hank Canitz draws on his experience as a practitioner and consultant to explore the impediments that restrain organizations from gaining the advantages of modern forecasting know-how. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-34 Issue: 41 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Spring File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:41:p:26-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nari Viswanathan Title: Beyond S&OP and IBP to Enterprise Planning and Performance Management: A Commentary on the Need for New Technology Abstract: ÒThe biggest systems-integration challenge facing CEOs is how to seamlessly tie strategic decision making to operational execution (S&OP). It is a challenge because a) CEOs may not realize the potential that S&OP has to impact strategy, and b) the software that supports S&OP is too often used just as an operational tool. In spite of years of talk about how S&OP can be the process where strategy is translated into actionable operational plans, for many companies the process remains just a supply/demand balancing tool without much consideration of financial implications or supply/demand shaping. WhatÕs needed. . . is new technology to enable strategic decision making for S&OP processes. It may be especially important to have a new kind of software to respond to current challenges. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-36 Issue: 41 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Spring File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:41:p:35-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Using Error Analysis to Improve Forecast Performance Abstract: Over the last two years I have written a number of pieces for Foresight with proposals about how to improve the measurement of forecast error. In this article, I show how these and related ideas can be used to manage the performance of the forecast process. Such analyses can be embedded in a control system to provide speedy, actionable feedback to forecasters and to their internal customers. They could also form the basis of an approach for consultants or internal experts to audit the quality of the forecasting process. This article furnishes examples of the practical application of this approach in the demand forecasting process of a typical consumer-goods business, selling product from stock. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-44 Issue: 41 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Spring File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:41:p:37-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Interview with Mark Blessington Abstract: Part of the Forecaster in the Field feature--An interview with Mark Blessington concerning his writing and consulting career. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45 Issue: 41 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Spring File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:41:p:45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sujit Singh Title: Forecasting: Academia versus Business Abstract: Singh mentions a recent discussion on LinkedIn about this question: Is there a disconnect between the academic and the business world when it comes to forecasting? His answer is to report what he sees in the marketplace pertaining to types of forecasting research and the gaps between such research findings and the questions raised by practitioners in the forecasting field. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46-47 Issue: 41 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Spring File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:41:p:46-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: An S&OP Communication Plan: The Final Step in Support of Company Strategy Abstract: Over the past 30 years, S&OP has generally advanced beyond the goals of balancing supply and demand. In recent Foresight articles, Mark Moon and Pete Alle (Spring 2015) discussed the integration of finance and senior leadership into supply-chain planning, while Dean Sorensen (Winter 2016) detailed the ways in which S&OP can and should be broadened to encompass enterprise-wide planning and performance management. We are seeing that mature S&OP processes now support rolling forecasts, enterprise resource reallocation, and strategy execution. In this article, however, Niels van Hove argues that to keep employees informed, engaged, and focused on executing strategy, S&OP outcomes must be communicated properly. He calls for a variety of communication channels, both structured and informal. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-10 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:5-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Interview with Niels van Hove Abstract: A Q and A with Niels van Hove, author of the lead article in issue 42 of Foresight, about his career in forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 11 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Step Aside, Climate Change - Get Ready for Mass Unemployment Abstract: Sohn reviews two new books that offer predictions about the impact of robots, AI, and big data on the workforce: Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future by Martin Ford (2015) and Humans Need Not Apply: A Guide to Wealth and Work in the Age of Artificial Intelligence by Jerry Kaplan. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages12-17 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:12-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sujit Singh Title: Forecasting: Academia versus Business Abstract: Reprint of an article in issue 41 of Foresight (Spring 20160). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-25 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:24-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John E. Boylan Author-Name: Aris A. Syntetos Title: Commentary: It Takes Two to Tango Abstract: The authors comment on the previous article by Sujit Singh, Academia versus Business. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-29 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:26-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Commentary: Academic Frameworks for Practitioner Use Abstract: Goodwin offers a second commentary on the previous article by Sujit Singh, Academia versus Business. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-32 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:30-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: Commentary: Refocusing Forecasting Research Abstract: Gilliland adds a third commentary on the article by Sujit Singh, Academia versus Business. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-34 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:33-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Author-Name: Joseph Roy Title: Commentary: Research Needed on Advisory Forecasts Abstract: The authors add a fourth commentary on the previous article by Sujit Singh, Academia versus Business. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-36 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:35-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Author-Name: Nikolaos Kourentzes Title: Commentary: Two Sides of the Same Coin Abstract: The authors add a fifth commentary on the previous article by Sujit Singh, Academia versus Business. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-39 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:37-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Commentary: The End vs. the Means Abstract: Morlidge adds a sixth commentary on the previous article by Sujit Singh, Academia versus Business. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-41 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:40-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alex Hancock Title: Commentary: The Incentives Gap Abstract: Hancock contributes adds a seventh commentary on the previous article by Sujit Singh, Academia versus Business. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-43 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:42-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Commentary: That Feeling for Randomness Abstract: Kolassa contributes an eighth commentary on the previous article by Sujit Singh, Academia versus Business. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-47 Issue: 42 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Summer File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:42:p:44-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bram Desmet Title: The Impact of Strategy on Supply Chain and Forecasting Abstract: In this provocative article, Bram Desmet explores how a company's market strategy affects its supply chain targets and forecasting methodology. The author introduces the concept of the supply chain triangle to illustrate the balancing act a company must perform to achieve the cost, service, and inventory mix that maximizes its return on capital employed. He then shows how the company's strategic choice, be it operational excellence, product leadership, or customer intimacy, influences the position it seeks on the supply chain triangle and, in particular, its inventory targets. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-11 Issue: 43 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:43:p:4-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alex Hancock Title: Forecast Process Improvement at Shell Lubricants Abstract: In 2011, Shell Lubricants established a Central Forecasting Team (CFT) to deal with unacceptable forecasting performance. Alex Hancock worked with this team for four years, and the group eventually engineered a turnaround effort that identified and reformed practices blamed for much organizational pain. In this article, Alex reflects on the fits and starts at the CFT and reveals key lessons learned for reforming the forecasting function. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-18 Issue: 43 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:43:p:12-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Scott Ambrose Title: Achieving S&OP Success: How Principles of Team Effectiveness Can Help Abstract: We know that Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) is a cross-functional process, bringing a company's demand- and supply-side people together to reach consensus on the demand forecasts and operating assumptions. The participants typically engage in a series of meetings across each month, and the process outcome is determined by how effectively the individuals collaborate within the team. As Scott Ambrose writes here, principles of team effectiveness have been widely studied, but not applied previously to S&OP. Scott's article examines how recognition and implementation of these principles can improve S&OP collaboration and performance. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 25-31 Issue: 43 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:43:p:25-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Greg H. Parlier Title: Mission-Based Forecasting: Demand Forecasting for Military Operations Abstract: In this fascinating discussion, military veteran and OR expert Greg Parlier examines the application of demand forecasting and inventory management in support of military operations. The commercial "point of sale" becomes the "point of readiness generation" for the military. And customer- demand forecasting becomes mission-based forecasting. Greg highlights problems that have inhibited the supply chain's ability to achieve mission readiness. Among the most serious is the absence of historical data on demand and consequent inability to implement effective demand forecasting and planning procedures. It is encouraging that the military has been learning important supply-chain lessons from the business world's application of OR techniques. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-37 Issue: 43 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:43:p:32-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joe Roy Title: Sales Forecasts for the Consumer Chain: Are We Kidding Ourselves? Abstract: "We should be making today what was sold yesterday, and shipping it tomorrow"-this is Joe Roy's call to manufacturers and distributors of products. Joe argues that rapid response to changes in consumer demand should supersede the traditional supply-chain goal of establishing inventory targets based on sales forecasts. Furthermore, he states that the problem with sales forecasts is that they are typically for longer periods than required and that they serve as a crutch to manufacturing's lack of responsiveness to demand. He advocates that, in a "consumer chain," time means next day! Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-41 Issue: 43 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:43:p:38-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Evangelos Spiliotis Author-Name: Achilleas Raptis Author-Name: Vassilios Assimakopoulos Title: Off-the-Shelf vs. Customized Forecasting Support Systems Abstract: Numerous forecasting support systems (FSSs) have been developed through the years to help companies select and implement forecasting procedures and to support managerial decisions. While the majority of these systems are off-the-shelf, the authors argue that such generic systems will not always be up to the task. Problems can arise due to lack of customizability, inadequate Web-based architecture, and poor user interfaces. The authors have developed a Web-based FSS specifically to forecast water consumption (in the province of Attica, Greece). In doing so, they took as a springboard many of the proposals for the design of an FSS presented in the special feature on FSS in Foresight's Fall 2015 issue. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2016 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-48 Issue: 43 Volume: Year: 2016 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2016:i:43:p:42-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Collaborative Forecasting: Is It Always Worth It? Abstract: Goodwin cites common sense and various examples to show that collaboration between different parts of a supply chain should result in greater forecast accuracy. However, he questions whether a decision to collaborate is actually so straightforward and cites a study indicating a possible reduction in accuracy. He names and explains several barriers to such success, concluding that implementing this knowledge may work for some organizations and result in substantial gains. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-8 Issue: 44 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:44:p:5-8 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Title: Recoupling the Forecasting and Stock-Control Processes Abstract: The integration of demand forecasting and inventory control is an area that deserves increased attention from practitioners as well as more research work from academics. In inventory planning, there is an explicit linkage between the variance of the forecast errors over the replenishment lead time and the calculation of safety stocks. If the calculation of the forecast error variance is flawed, then the calculation of the safety stocks will be flawed too. The implications can be dramatic: if stocks are too high, there is a financial penalty. If they are too low, service levels will be compromised. In this article, Steve Morlidge and Aris Syntetos describe common but critical mistakes in the calculation of the lead-time forecast error variance and discuss the implications for setting safety stocks. They explain what the mistakes are and where they're coming from, and they provide estimates of their consequences. The authors argue that resolving such problems goes beyond the actual technicalities to include closer communication between demand forecasters, inventory controllers, and suppliers of the software in use. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 9-19 Issue: 44 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:44:p:9-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Title: Book Review of "Demand Forecasting for Managers" Abstract: The author states, "Demand Forecasting for Managers performs an impressive juggling act. It's extremely difficult for a text such as this to strike the right balance between explaining the importance of demand forecasting and providing just enough information-and no more-to allow a busy manager to learn something that can be directly put into practice" He concludes, "Buy and read this book now! You'll be very glad you did." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-21 Issue: 44 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:44:p:20-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephanie Globus Title: Book review of "Demand Forecasting for Managers" Abstract: "The chapters of this work are short and self-contained, generally easily completed in 15 minutes over lunch. Taken individually, they can each be digested on an as-needed basis, while together they form an informative narrative covering connecting the business case for forecasting to the basics of forecast models and the evaluation of forecasts, all the way to forecasting competitions and hierarchical forecasts." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 22 Issue: 44 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:44:p:22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: Changing the Paradigm for Business Forecasting Abstract: This article is an adaptation of the keynote address that Mike Gilliland delivered at the 2016 Foresight Practitioner Conference in Raleigh, N.C. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-35 Issue: 44 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:44:p:29-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Orrell Title: Commentary on "Changing the Paradigm for Business Forecasting" Abstract: In commenting on Gilliland's article, Orrell writes, "While I agree completely with his conclusion that simple models are usually preferable to complicated models, I would add that the problem is less an obsession with complexity per se, than with building detailed mechanistic models of complexity." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-38 Issue: 44 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:44:p:36-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Fildes Title: Research into Forecasting Practice Abstract: Continuing our discussions in recent issues of the need for better connections between academic research in forecasting and business needs and practices, Robert Fildes, a founder of the International Institute of Forecasters in 1980 and founding director of the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting in the UK, has taken a close look at the publications in forecasting journals, finding a troubling deficiency of research for improving supply chain management. The fix isn't easy and requires much better collaboration among researchers, businesses, and software vendors. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-46 Issue: 44 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:44:p:39-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas R. Willemain Title: Commentary on "Research into Forecasting Practice" Abstract: In commenting on Robert Fildes' article, Willemain writes, "Professor Fildes has written an important and original paper. He focuses our attention on what I would call the "ecology of innovation" in forecasting practice, and reveals this to be a strategic but rarely studied topic. If his insight leads to follow-on activity by all three essential parties-academics, developers, and users-then we should expect important societal benefits. As someone who has played two of these three roles, I resonate to a number of Fildes' observations and would like to add my own thoughts to the mix. While they may seem rather negative, I consider them realistic and argue that they help further explain the problem that Fildes brings to our attention." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 47-48 Issue: 44 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:44:p:47-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Earnings Forecasts: The Bias Is Back Abstract: A recent study reported in The Economist reveals that, early in each calendar year, financial analysts consistently overestimate the annual earnings of U.S. companies, a dramatic forecasting bias that is only partly corrected later in the year. In this article, Foresight's Financial Forecasting Editor, Roy Batchelor, probes the sources of these "earnings surprises" and concludes that it all has to do with misplaced incentives. It's a problem not very different from the kind every business forecaster faces when "the boss" implicitly (or explicitly) requests a more favorable result from the forecast than the data can permit. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-9 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:5-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shaun Snapp Title: Is Big Data the Silver Bullet for Supply-Chain Forecasting? Abstract: Shaun Snapp takes on the frequently heard argument these days that big data will alter the nature of supply chain forecasting for the better. Here he lays out the reasons for his dissent. Shaun's points are supported and extended in the six commentaries that follow his article. While the bottom line seems to be don't fall for big hype, the discussion illuminates critical issues in forecasting for the supply chain, including the roles of product vs. customer forecasting, the nature of causal forecasting models, and whether these models can supersede traditional time series forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-14 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:10-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Gray Title: Commentary: Becoming Responsible Consumers of Big Data Abstract: Gray comments on Shaun Snapp's article in issue 45, also questioning claims that big data will answer several problems and challenges in the field of forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-19 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:15-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: Commentary: Customer vs. Item Forecasting Abstract: Gilliland also follows up on Shaun Snapp's article that refers to two assumptions made by software vendor Blue Ridge, focusing on their point that "we should be forecasting customer behaviour rather than items." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-21 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:20-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Commentary: Big Data or Big Hype? Abstract: Kolassa also follows up on Shaun Snapp's review of Blue Ridge's assertions about the usefulness of big data, concentrating on "how big data changes or does not change statistical realities" and on "the current state of causal forecasting." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 22-23 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:22-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: Commentary: Big Data, a Big Decision Abstract: Van Hove comments on Shaun Snapp's feature article in issue 45, recognizing the importance of big data but asserting that "like any concept, big data is not a holy grail for every supply chain." He suggests that executives ask themselves several questions about its usefulness to their companies before adopting a new concept. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-26 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:24-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Catt Title: Commentary: Big Data and the Internet of Things Abstract: Catt's commentary on Snapp's big data article addresses his main concerns about Blue Ridge's assertions but also explores areas where he thinks big data has "the potential to improve supply-chain planning and execution with a focus on supporting demand forecasting." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-28 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:27-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Editor Title: Interview with Shaun Snapp Abstract: Shaun Snapp, author of the article about big data in issue 45, provides answers to questions about his career in forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andreas Graefe Title: Prediction Market Performance in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Abstract: The 2016 U.S. presidential election was a particularly bad case for prediction markets, as was the Brexit vote in the UK. In theory, these markets should be very effective in aggregating the information of individual forecasters into an overall market forecast. Because the individual participants must put "skin in the game," they are expected to be more diligent about making use of relevant information than participants in surveys who are simply asked what they think will happen. In this article, Foresight's Prediction Markets Editor Andreas Graefe reviews the recent performance of prediction markets to explain why the theoretical benefits of this approach to forecasting have not always stood up in practice. He raises the possibilities of market manipulation, participant misunderstanding, and bettors' systematic bias. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-42 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:38-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: How to Shape a Company Culture with S&OP Abstract: In a 2010 Foresight article, S&OP Editor John Mello argued that successful execution of S&OP is inevitably linked to corporate culture. A culture based on silo mentality and lack of trust not only undermines S&OP effectiveness but also reduces employee engagement and well-being. In this article, Niels van Hove argues that while effective S&OP can thrive in the right company culture, the process itself can influence and shape that culture. He calls for S&OP leaders to articulate goals that include clear expectations on behaviors. Doing so will not only improve effectiveness but also enable S&OP to play an active role in improving employee attitudes and satisfaction. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-48 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:43-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Sinan Gonul Title: Commentary on "How to Shape a Company Culture with S&OP": Building and Maintaining Trust Abstract: As a commentary on Niels van Hove's article in issue 45, "How to Shape a Company Culture with S&OP," Gonul writes about the importance of building and maintaining trust rather than assuming that it will happen automatically. He includes recent research on trust and makes several recommendations for managing the quality within organizations. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 49-50 Issue: 45 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:45:p:49-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Gray Author-Name: John Dougherty Title: Misconceptions, Missteps, and Bad Practices in S&OP Abstract: In this first of a multipart article, Chris Gray and John Dougherty- authors of the pathbreaking book Sales & Operations Planning, Best Practices- review their firsthand experience with S&OP practices in organizations, attempting to flush out what they've found to be among the most blatant misconceptions and missteps, the sort that do real harm to the potential of S&OP. Chris presented a talk on this topic at the 2016 Foresight Practitioner Conference, the theme of which was "Worst Practices in Forecasting: Today's Mistakes to Tomorrow's Breakthroughs." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-10 Issue: 46 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:46:p:4-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Author-Name: Konstantinos Nikolopoulos Title: The Theta Method Abstract: In this, Foresight's newest forecasting-methods tutorial, we offer a step-by-step description of Theta, the top-performing method in the M3 Competition. Foresight's Forecasting Support Systems Editor, Fotios Petropoulos, and Kostas Nikolopoulos-one of the creators of Theta-demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 11-17 Issue: 46 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:46:p:11-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Longevity: Blessing or Curse? Abstract: Motivated by the publication of The 100-Year Life by Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, Foresight Strategic Forecasting Editor Ira Sohn questions the sacred tenet of economics that "more is preferred to less," at least in terms of longevity. Here, Ira provides an overview of the factors that make it challenging to deal with longevity risk from our rapidly growing proportion of elderly citizenry. What seems clear is that current public policies are not up to the challenges. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-24 Issue: 46 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:46:p:18-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Todd Tomalak Title: Communicating Forecasts to the C-Suite: A Six-Step Survival Guide Abstract: Todd Tomalak, Vice President for Research and Head of Building Products at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, writes that most forecasting practitioners have extensive training in technical skills but end up having to "learn the hard way" about discussing forecasts with CEO/CFOs. Here, he offers guidance on how to talk forecasts with the C-Suite. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-35 Issue: 46 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:46:p:31-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefan de Kok Title: The Quest for a Better Forecast Error Metric: Measuring More than the Average Error Abstract: In an article in the Summer 2006 issue of Foresight, Tom Willemain presented the argument that While most forecast-error metrics are averages of forecast errors, for intermittent demand series we should focus on the demand distribution and assess forecast error at each distinct level of demand. Accordingly, the appropriate accuracy metric will assess the difference between the actual and forecasted distributions of demand. The issue has not had much traction over the years since-except perhaps in energy studies -and we do not find error metrics based on full distributions present in forecasting support systems. Now Stefan de Kok picks up the argument and extends it to develop an error metric-Total Percentage Error-that measures the full range of uncertainty in our forecasts and, in doing so, both enables better inventory-planning and provides a more comprehensive way to gauge the quality of the forecast. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-45 Issue: 46 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:46:p:36-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Title: Interview with Stefan de Kok Abstract: De Kok is interviewed about his forecasting experience and his young company Wahupa. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46 Issue: 46 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:46:p:46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Owen Davies Title: Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence: An Introduction Abstract: Davies, executive editor of TechGlobal, writes this introduction to a four-part article about the impact of AI, written by Spyros Makridakis. Part one is in issue 47 of Foresight, others to follow. Davies mentions the early dire predictions about the disastrous outcome AI would have on employment and notes that lately there have been more cautious analyses of its effects. While it is far too early to tell the movement?s actual influence, Davies notes that Makridakis thinks the results will be neither dystopian nor utopian but a mix of benefits and liabilities. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-6 Issue: 47 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:47:p:4-6 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Title: Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Abstract: In this first of a four-part article, Spyros Makridakis reflects on earlier predictions made about the emergence of digital revolution and presents what he now sees as the forthcoming advances in AI. The critical question and the major objective of the full article is to consider how AI will affect business firms and what companies can do to exploit the consequent opportunities, while avoiding the dangers by correctly predicting these revolutionary changes and planning ahead for them. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-13 Issue: 47 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:47:p:7-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Title: Interview with Spyros Makridakis Abstract: Makridakis is asked about the influence of M-Competitions, which were organized by teams he led. There have been three such competitions to date, and a fourth is being worked on now. He also gives information on his recent professional activities, like consulting, leading seminars, and publishing articles. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14 Issue: 47 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:47:p:14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Forecasting After a Fashion Abstract: Goodwin points out the special challenges forecasters have in the fashion industry because of a host of factors?cultural, scientific, demographic, and so on. Additionally, such products often have short life cycles and preferences may change inexplicably. Possible ways of tackling the problem involve shortening the lead time of the forecasts and using regression trees, statistical models, and human judgment about trends. However, Goodwin concedes fashion is an especially challenging area for forecasters. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-18 Issue: 47 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:47:p:15-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christian Schafer Author-Name: Stephan Brebeck Title: Predicting the Uptake Curve of New Drugs Abstract: Current academician and former pharma analyst Christian Sch?fer and pharma strategy manager Stephan Brebeck collaborate here to offer a new approach to the very challenging task of predicting the market success of a new drug following its launch. They argue that the traditional approaches have fundamental disadvantages and describe their Dynamic Patient-Share (DPS) method as a simpler, more transparent forecasting method that additionally shows great potential to improve forecast accuracy, not just for medications but new products in general. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-24 Issue: 47 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:47:p:19-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Title: Principles, Benefits, and Pitfalls of Vendor-Managed Inventory Abstract: In the 1980s, Walmart and Procter & Gamble entered into a supply-chain initiative called Vendor-Managed Inventory (VMI), in which Walmart?s suppliers assumed responsibility for managing their products in the retail giant?s warehouses. Because the arrangement was so successful in significantly improving order fulfilment on merchandise, it attracted the attention of other retailers and, later, manufacturers. Here, Foresight S&OP Editor John Mello provides an overview of the basic structure of VMI, the benefits that can accrue to customer and supplier, and the pitfalls to be avoided. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-36 Issue: 47 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:47:p:31-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Gray Author-Name: John Dougherty Title: Misconceptions, Missteps, and Bad Practices in S&OP? Part 2 Abstract: As a follow-up to their first article on the topic, Gray and Dougherty explain five more aspects of misconceptions, missteps, and bad practices in S&OP, including effective strategies, time fences, the need to fit the forecast, laziness, ?document assumptions,? and ?one size fits all.? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-44 Issue: 47 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:47:p:37-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bill Tonetti Title: Do Companies Really Need Software for S&OP? Abstract: Bill Tonetti, cofounder of Demand Works, discusses the major applications of S&OP software and argues that differences in opinion on the need for such systems stem mainly from disparate definitions of what S&OP is really about. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-48 Issue: 47 Volume: Year: 2017 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:47:p:45-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Title: The M4 Competition, Interview with Spyros Makridakis Abstract: The Foresight interviewer questions Makridakis about the M4 competitions-their original impetus, goals, expansion, and the present M4 competition now going on. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-6 Issue: 48 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:48:p:5-6 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makdridakis Title: Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Part 2 of 4: Examining Four Scenarios of Possibility Abstract: Makridakis writes about the current controversy over the future of AI and how it will affect humans and our world. He divides predictors into four categories: the optimists, pessimists, pragmatists, and doubters, and explains the thinking of each group. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-12 Issue: 48 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:48:p:7-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: How to Respond to a Forecasting Sceptic Abstract: Goodwin asserts that several recent, well-publicized events and forecasters' failure to predict them accurately have led to scepticism about forecasts in general. Yet he points out that in many areas, forecasts have been beneficial to the public, for example weather forecast of hurricanes, floods, hot spells, tornadoes, etc. Goodman says that a major cause for scepticism is that many people misunderstand just what a forecast is and what it tries to do. He explains factors like probability distributions, underlying rationales, basic assumptions, and random occurrences that often influence a carefully calculated forecast and points out that people often remember well forecast failures while quickly forgetting or discounting successes. It is too bad that some people have this attitude and he hopes his explanation of the complexities of forecasts will help people understand better their goals and methods. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-16 Issue: 48 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:48:p:13-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Oliver Schaer Author-Name: Simon Spavound Title: Review of Forewarned: A Sceptic's Guide to Prediction Abstract: The authors review Paul Goodwin's recent book, A Sceptic's Guide to Prediction. Due to current mistrust of forecasting cited by Goodwin, they summarize his attempt to explain just what a forecast is, why it is complex and often problematical, and help us see when forecasts should be trusted and when we should be more wary and questioning. The book is written for a general audience and explains the difficulties, complexities and challenges of the field. As such the authors recommend the book as a primer for the lay reader. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-18 Issue: 48 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:48:p:17-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nikolaos Kourentzes Author-Name: Yves Sagaert Title: Incorporating Leading Indicators into Sales Forecasts Abstract: Using leading indicators for business forecasting-in contrast to macroeconomic forecasting-has been relatively rare, partly because our traditional time-series methods do not readily allow incorporation of external variables. Nowadays, however, we have an abundance of potentially useful indicators, and there is evidence that utilizing relevant ones in a forecasting model can significantly improve forecast accuracy and transparency. In this article, Nikolaos and Yves show how to find appropriate leading indicators and make good use of them for sales forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-30 Issue: 48 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:48:p:24-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Principles of Business Forecasting: Review of the 2nd Edition Abstract: In reviewing this second edition of a well-known book, Kolassa reports it "retains the coverage of fundamental forecasting methodologies, including time-series decomposition, exponential smoothing, ARIMA, the Box- Jenkins method, regression methods, and judgmental forecasting. But it goes well beyond this by including material that is rarely seen in business forecasting textbooks, such as state space models, data analytics, hierarchical modeling, including temporal aggregation, and- something I particular like-the practical, organizational, and political aspects of forecasting." He also notes the changes from the first edition and makes a few suggestions for further improvements, while concluding it is "a perfect mix of explanation, theoretical background, practical illustrations, minicases, exercises, stimulating discussion questions, and the 'forecasting principles' that succinctly summarize each chapter" and enthusiastically recommends it to professionals and students alike. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-33 Issue: 48 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:48:p:31-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Gray Author-Name: John Dougherty Title: Misconceptions, Missteps, and Bad Practices in S&OP, Part 3: Automating at the Expense of Judgment and Accountability Abstract: In the previous two issues of Foresight, Chris and John discussed 11 common misconceptions, missteps, and bad practices in S&OP. Here in the final segment they emphasize the danger of excessive automation of the planning processes. This peril has at least two sources: one is the temptation to develop the supply plan (which attempts to ensure that overall resource capabilities are adequate to meet total market demand) by simply aggregating the detailed production schedules for individual items (a bottom-up approach); the second is to rely on advanced planning systems to the extent that requisite human judgment and leadership are marginalized. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-42 Issue: 48 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:48:p:34-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Beware of Standard Prediction Intervals for Causal Models Abstract: We're all well aware that point forecasts are subject to a degree of error, and so we frequently report the forecast with a margin for error around it; that is, we present a prediction interval (PI). Much has been written about our prediction intervals often being too narrow to reflect the confidence we have in the forecast- for several reasons-and this is especially so when we forecast from regression and other causal models. For these models-those that forecast future values of a dependent variable based on assumed drivers of that variable (the explanatory variables)-the prediction intervals are calculated under the assumption that future values of the drivers are known or can be controlled. When this assumption is unjustified, these prediction intervals will be erroneously narrow. Here I explain why, and show from a case study just how serious the problem can be. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-48 Issue: 48 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:48:p:43-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas R. Willemain Title: Choosing and Achieving a Target Service Level Abstract: We all understand that accurate forecasts are a necessary ingredient for inventory management; however, the problem remains that if filtered through poor procedures for setting inventory targets, accurate forecasts by no means ensure desired inventory performance. In this feature section, Foresight showcases two articles on the key role of service-level targeting in managing inventories. The service level for an inventory item is the probability that no shortages occur between the times you order more stock of the item and when it arrives on the shelf. In the first article, Tom Willemain describes the primary considerations for setting service-level targets, explaining how software can serve as a valuable aid in this endeavor and offering a case study to illustrate a relatively simple approach-which he calls "service-level wins and losses"-by which a company can evaluate how well it is achieving its service-level goals. The case study also reveals how important it is to utilize appropriate probability models rather than rely on traditional defaults such as the Normal distribution of demands. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 6-10 Issue: 49 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:49:p:6-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shaun Snapp Title: How Should a Company Set Service Levels? Perception vs. Reality Abstract: We all understand that accurate forecasts are a necessary ingredient for inventory management; however, the problem remains that if filtered through poor procedures for setting inventory targets, accurate forecasts by no means ensure desired inventory performance. In this feature section, Foresight showcases two articles on the key role of service-level targeting in managing inventories. The service level for an inventory item is the probability that no shortages occur between the time you order more stock of the item and when it arrives on the shelf. In the second article, Shaun Snapp argues that although the selection of service-level targets has immense implications for company inventory costs, current approaches that firms use to set such targets leave much to be desired. Too often, firms rely on heuristics such as Service to our customers is a differentiator from our competitors, so it must be set high. The companies also suffer from cross-functional divergence in what the targets should be. Multi-Echelon Inventory Optimization (MEIO) software is certainly available to help model the key relationships needed; but, Shaun reports, there are serious challenges in implementation that some companies find difficult to overcome. He recommends development of a "lighter-weight" application and describes its key features. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 11-17 Issue: 49 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:49:p:11-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Title: Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence, Part 3 of 4: The Potential Effects of AI on Businesses, Manufacturing, and Commerce Abstract: In part 3 of his 4 articles on Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence, Makdridakis focuses on firms and employment, the areas that may be of the greatest concern presently to mankind. Topics include changes already brought about by AI, contrasts with the industrial revolution, the impact on both developed and developing countries, and the dominant firms in AI now and those predicted to be in 20 years. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-27 Issue: 49 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:49:p:18-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: The Future of Work in the United States: Projections of Occupational Employment to 2026 Abstract: Sohn cites a fall 2017 study by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, providing a 10-year projection of employment in more than 800 different occupations. These predictions are based on structural changes in the economy and other forces like globalization. The report suggests that health-care services will be a major source of jobs in the next 10 years. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-38 Issue: 49 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:49:p:33-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Can Eksoz Author-Name: Dilek Onkal Title: Bridging the Distributor into a Collaborative Demand-and-Supply Planning Process Abstract: Based on their study of the food distribution supply chain, Can Eksoz and Dilek Onkal argue that the distributor has largely been overlooked in the principles we've created for collaborative demand and supply planning. Their article reinserts the distributor into the supply chain and examines the challenges of collaboration from the distributor's vantage point. This is a good lesson in how collaborative agreements must address the particular structures of the supply chain as well as the markets in which the supply-chain partners operate. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-45 Issue: 49 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:49:p:39-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Title: Interview with Dr. Can Eksoz Abstract: The Foresight interviewer questions Eksoz about his career in forecasting and his collaboration with Professor Dilek Onkal. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46 Issue: 49 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:49:p:46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Title: Part 4 of 5: Blockchain (BC) Technology, the Integration of BC and AI, and the Road to Intelligence Augmentation (IA) Abstract: This fourth part of Spyros' article on forecasting the effects of AI over the near and distant future was originally meant to be the concluding installment. When we received the manuscript, however, it was clear that Foresight wouldn't be able to accommodate everything Spyros had to say in just this issue. We've decided instead to extend the article to five parts, with the fifth installment comprising an assessment of the emerging and long-term future of AI's impact on culture, business, and commerce. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-9 Issue: 50 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:50:p:4-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Matthias Lutke Entrup Author-Name: Dennis Goetjes Title: A Blueprint for Selecting and Implementing a Forecasting Support System Abstract: Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME) have lagged behind their larger counterparts in the adoption of suitable forecasting support systems (FSS)-our generic label for demand-planning systems and other decision-support tools. Here, Matthias L?tke Entrup and Dennis Goetjes lay out a structured process to assist the SME to identify, select, and implement a system that meets the SME's particular requirements and fulfills its potential. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-18 Issue: 50 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:50:p:10-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: TonyaBoone Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Author-Name: Nada Sanders Title: How Big Data Could Challenge Planning Processes across the Supply Chain Abstract: The authors discuss the potential of big data to improve forecasting through better understanding of consumer behavior, upgraded demand-forecasting models, and more efficient supply-chain execution. They also document the major challenges posed for Sales and Operations Planning and propose how these can be anticipated and met head on. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-24 Issue: 50 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:50:p:19-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: S&OP Vision, Culture, and Language: Commentary on "Misconceptions, Missteps, and Bad Practices in S&OP" (published in Foresight issues 46, 47, 48) Abstract: Van Hove reacts to the baker's dozen of misconceptions that undermine the effectiveness of S&OP, explained by Chris Gray and John Dougherty in their previous 3 articles. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-28 Issue: 50 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:50:p:26-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John E, Mello Title: A Cautionary Tale from a Former Operations Planner: Commentary on "Misconceptions, Missteps, and Bad Practices in S&OP" (published in Foresight issues 46, 47, 48) Abstract: John Mello comments on the baker's dozen of misconceptions that undermine the effectiveness of S&OP, explained by Chris Gray and John Dougherty in their previous 3 articles. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-30 Issue: 50 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:50:p:29-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tim Januschowski Author-Name: Jan Gasthaus Author-Name: Yuyang Wang Author-Name: Syama Sundar Rangapuram Author-Name: Laurent Callot Title: Deep Learning for Forecasting Abstract: While the term "deep learning" (DL) has only been coined in the last few years, the techniques it refers to have been in development since the 1950s, namely artificial neural networks (NN or ANN for short). DL has scored major successes in image recognition, natural language processing (e.g. machine translation and speech recognition), and autonomous agents such as Google Deep Mind's AlphaGo. It is often used as a synonym for artificial intelligence (AI), by which name it has received extensive press coverage. This first of two installments of an article from Tim Januschowski and colleagues presents a tutorial on the basics of DL with illustrations of how it has been applied for forecasting Amazon product sales and other variables. The second installment will explore current trends and challenges in applying DL to forecasting problems. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-41 Issue: 50 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:50:p:35-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark K. Osbeck Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: Outcome Prediction in the Practice of Law Abstract: Business forecasters typically use time-series models to predict future demands, the forecasts informing management decision making and guiding organizational planning. But this type of forecasting is merely a subset of the broader field of predictive analytics, models used by data scientists in all manner of applications, including credit approvals, fraud detection, product-purchase and music-listening recommendations, and even the real-time decisions made by self-driving vehicles. The practice of law requires decisions that must be based on predictions of future legal outcomes, and data scientists are now developing forecasting methods to support the process. In this article, Mark Osbeck and Mike Gilliland first examine the traditional tools lawyers employ along with the limitations that prevent these tools from consistently delivering accurate predictions. They then describe how new data-science approaches, including AI, are starting to alter the way law firms operate. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-48 Issue: 50 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:50:p:42-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Title: Book Review of Profit from Your Forecasting Software: A Best-Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters, by Paul Goodwin Abstract: Reviewer Petropoulos notes that the author doesn?t single out any one software system, but keeps the discussion general and so applicable to many products. He lauds the book?s accessibility, concluding that ?Paul Goodwin has delivered a smoothly written and often surprisingly nontechnical introduction to forecasting methods. It constitutes a reference of best practices that will enable users to derive the most out of their forecasting software.? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 51 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:51:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Matthias Luetke Entrup Author-Name: Dennis Goetjes Title: A Blueprint for Selecting and Implementing a Forecasting Support System: Part 2 Abstract: Finding that Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME) have lagged behind their larger counterparts in the adoption of suitable forecasting support systems (FSS), Matthias Luetke Entrup and Dennis Goetjes set out to provide a structured process for the SME to identify, select, and implement an FSS that meets the organization?s particular requirements and fulfills or exceeds expectations. The structured process has these major steps: 1. Identify requirements on data structure and representation 2. Evaluate forecasting algorithms 3. Determine requirements for collaboration 4. Identify technology (hardware and software) requirements 5. Follow a sequential implementation process from high-level project assessment through provider comparison and selection, contract negotiation, system specification, testing and refinement, development of a pilot and, finally, rollout. Steps 1-4 were examined in Part 1 of this article in our Summer 2018 issue. Now the authors focus on implementation, the final but perhaps most challenging phase of the process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-15 Issue: 51 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:51:p:8-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Editor Title: Interview with Matthias Luetke Entrup and Dennis Goetjes Abstract: Entrup and Goetjes, authors of two recent Foresight articles, speak about their careers and experiences with forecasting support systems. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16 Issue: 51 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:51:p:16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Mello Author-Name: Melodie Philhours Author-Name: Katie Hill Title: Warning Signs for Forecasting Consumer-Induced Shortages Abstract: In this case study of recent ammunition shortages, the authors offer insights into the consumer mentality that led to ?panic buying? and subsequent loss of product availability. They recommend ways in which companies can anticipate potential product runs and adequately prepare to meet them. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-23 Issue: 51 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:51:p:17-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kenneth B. Kahn Author-Name: Charles W. Chase Title: The State of New-Product Forecasting Abstract: As the authors observe, new-product forecasting has long been a problematic and challenging area. In this article, they assess the state of the practice from their recent survey completed by 100 companies and describe emerging approaches that are showing promise for significantly upgrading forecasting performance for these products. They offer several prescriptions for how a company should go about establishing an effective new-product forecasting process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-31 Issue: 51 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:51:p:24-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Title: Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence, Part 5: The Emerging and Long-Term Future Abstract: In this fifth and concluding installment of his comprehensive series on forecasting the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI)?begun in Foresight?s Fall 2017 issue?Spyros Makridakis turns his attention to the future, which in many respects already appears to be here. He assesses AI?s ongoing influence on human culture and commerce by focusing on 10 technological trends that stand to have a profound impact on our lives. The effects of a few of these trends are already being felt in our day-to-day affairs, while others might seem to have sprung from the imaginations of the most audacious science-fiction writers. One thing appears certain: it is more true now than ever that, as Spyros noted at the outset of this series, the challenge will continue to be to predict forthcoming technologies without falling into the trap of shortsightedness, which has plagued so many of the previous forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-41 Issue: 51 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:51:p:36-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tim Januschowski Author-Name: Jan Gasthaus Author-Name: Yuyang Wang Author-Name: Syama Sundar Rangapuram Author-Name: Laurent Callot Title: Deep Learning for Forecasting: Current Trends and Challenges Abstract: In the first installment of this two-part article, Tim Januschowski and colleagues presented a tutorial on the basics of Deep Learning (DL) through neural networks (NNs), with illustrations of how NNs have been applied for forecasting product sales and other variables at Amazon. In this segment, they describe the pros and cons of forecasting through NNs and discuss some areas of current research designed to improve the application of NNs for forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-47 Issue: 51 Volume: Year: 2018 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2018:i:51:p:42-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting Abstract: Clarke reviews Steve Morlidge's book and pronounces it "a quick, easy-to-read handbook that seeks to find the balance between oversimplifying solutions and getting bogged down in more dense and conceptually challenging concepts. His objective is a simple one: help practitioners stop doing dumb stuff." He concludes that "While this book is solidly for someone with hands-on responsibility for forecasting, there are some elements that would make it the perfect introductory book for a senior manager without prior experience who's taking broader responsibility." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-6 Issue: 52 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:52:p:5-6 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Scenarios and Forecasts: Complementary Ways of Anticipating the Future? Abstract: Goodwin describes the value of scenario planning, which involves visualizing events that may make drastic changes in the status quo and then thinking of ways to deal with them, if they do occur. We can then test possible strategies and try to evaluate their success. This is in contrast to forecasting's common assumption that the past will continue into the future. Goodwin argues these two seemingly opposing approaches might be combined to be useful and beneficial. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-10 Issue: 52 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:52:p:7-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Forecasting the Future of Retail Forecasting Abstract: Stephan Kolassa, forecasting researcher and developer of retail forecasting software, describes here the "breathtaking" changes occurring in the retail industry due to new digital technologies, cloud computing, social media, and artificial intelligence. He examines the implications of these retail trends on the shopping experience and the retail industry and details the challenging new requirements that will be imposed on retail forecasters. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 11-19 Issue: 52 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:52:p:11-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Editor Title: Interview with Stephan Kolassa, Foresight Associate Editor Abstract: Clarke speaks about how he was introduced to forecasting, and in retail specifically, and in the different roles he plays in that field and in academia. He has concluded he's "too practical for the theoreticians" and "too theoretical for the practitioners," but he enjoys both roles and knows he'll "never run out of work, and it'll never get boring." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-21 Issue: 52 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:52:p:20-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Brian Seaman Title: Commentary on "Forecasting the Future of Retail Forecasting" Abstract: As the preeminent Canadian physician Sir William Osler so eloquently put it, "Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability." Clinicians often forecast the benefits of specific courses of action when consulting with patients, yet the reliability of the underpinning evidence, inherent biases (conscious and unconscious), and the limitations of medical findings often lead to diagnostic and/or treatment errors. In this paper, the authors present a number of specific examples related to risk and uncertainty in the context of clinical decision making-some more than a little alarming-including extremely high incidences of misdiagnosis, reluctance on the part of medical professionals to abandon treatment regimens that are doing patients no good and may be causing harm, and systemic flaws in medical research methodology that can impede important new data from reaching practitioners. The article concludes by exploring ways medical practice could change to reduce health risks, uncertainty, and errors. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 22-23 Issue: 52 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:52:p:22-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Author-Name: Ann Wakefield Author-Name: Richard Kirkham Title: Predicting Medical Risks and Appreciating Uncertainty Abstract: As the preeminent Canadian physician Sir William Osler so eloquently put it, "Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability." Clinicians often forecast the benefits of specific courses of action when consulting with patients, yet the reliability of the underpinning evidence, inherent biases (conscious and unconscious), and the limitations of medical findings often lead to diagnostic and/or treatment errors. In this paper, the authors present a number of specific examples related to risk and uncertainty in the context of clinical decision making-some more than a little alarming-including extremely high incidences of misdiagnosis, reluctance on the part of medical professionals to abandon treatment regimens that are doing patients no good and may be causing harm, and systemic flaws in medical research methodology that can impede important new data from reaching practitioners. The article concludes by exploring ways medical practice could change to reduce health risks, uncertainty, and errors. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28-35 Issue: 52 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:52:p:28-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tim Januschowski Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: A Classification of Business Forecasting Problems Abstract: While we have many taxonomies of forecasting methods, the authors present a classification of forecasting problems in modern industrial settings. Such a classification can help decision makers understand what resources to draw upon when facing a particular problem and may lead to more scientific discourse about the relevant data sets for benchmarking forecasting performance. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-43 Issue: 52 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:52:p:36-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Owen Davies Title: Commentary on Spyros Makridakis's article "Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence" Abstract: Foresight's five-part article "Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence" by Spyros Makridakis was published in consecutive issues from Fall 2017 through Fall 2018 and is compiled as a Special Feature in the Fall 2018 Document Store listing. The introduction to that article was written by Owen Davies, Executive Editor of TechCast Global. In the Fall 2017 issue, Owen noted: While not ignoring the risks that AI brings with it, Professor Makridakis believes that the world ahead will not be the dystopia that pessimists fear. Neither will it be utopian. Instead it will be a mix of benefits and liabilities, and making sure that the former outweigh the latter is one of the difficult challenges we now face. Now, Owen provides a coda to the feature article, augmenting key predictions from Spyros on employment impacts, blockchain, intelligence augmentation, and the art of technological forecasting with the expert opinions gathered in TechCast's Delphi forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-47 Issue: 52 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:52:p:44-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas R. Willemain Title: Will You Become a Victim of Your Models? Abstract: In this feature section, Tom Willemain provokes a good deal of thought about the role of statistical models in supply chain forecasting, a field that he believes lags far behind finance in embracing algorithms over gut instinct. His article is followed by Commentaries from practitioners and researchers about the realities that can lead to "model failure" and the conditions for successful implementation of model-based decision making. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Gray Title: Commentary: The More Basic Questions for Forecasting the Supply Chain Abstract: This is the first of several commentaries on Willemain's Foresight article, Will You Become a Victim of Your Models? Practitioners and researchers comment on the realities that can lead to "model failure" and the conditions for successful implementation of model-based decision making. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-9 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:8-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Commentary: Love and Disdain for Forecasting Models Abstract: This is a commentary on Thomas Willemain's Foresight article, Will You Become a Victim of Your Models? Goodwin is one of several practitioners and researchers comment on the realities that can lead to "model failure" and the conditions for successful implementation of model-based decision making. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-11 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:10-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Orrell Title: Commentary: Models Are Easy to Abuse Abstract: This is a commentary on Thomas Willemain's Foresight article, Will You Become a Victim of Your Models? Orrell is one of several practitioners and researchers comment on the realities that can lead to "model failure" and the conditions for successful implementation of model-based decision making. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-12 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Henry Canitz Title: Commentary: The Benefits of Advanced Modeling Techniques Abstract: This is a commentary on Thomas Willemain's Foresight article, Will You Become a Victim of Your Models? Canitz is one of several practitioners and researchers who comment on the realities that can lead to "model failure" and the conditions for successful implementation of model-based decision making. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-14 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:13-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Boylan Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Title: Commentary: Testing Models Is Critical Abstract: This is a commentary on Thomas Willemain's Foresight article, Will You Become a Victim of Your Models? Boylan and Syntetos comment on the realities that can lead to "model failure" and the conditions for successful implementation of model-based decision making. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-16 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:15-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas R. Willemain Title: Will You Become a Victim of Your Models? Response to Comments Abstract: Willemain responds to five different commentaries on his original Foresight article, Will You Become a Victim of Your Models? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-18 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:17-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Azhar Iqbal Author-Name: John Silvia Title: The Ten Commandments of Economic Forecasting Abstract: In this ever-evolving world, we need accurate forecasts of key economic and financial variables to help decision makers design effective policies. Azhar Iqbal and John Silvia present a framework of "ten commandments" to govern the economic-forecasting process. They begin with the need to know the forecasting objective and loss function and end with the monitoring of forecast performance and refinements to the original model. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-25 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:19-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John P. A. Ioannidis Title: Medical Science and Practice: Does Anyone Want to Fix Them? Abstract: Foresight's Winter 2019 issue featured the article "Predicting Medical Risks and Appreciating Uncertainty" by Spyros Makridakis, Ann Wakefield, and Richard Kirkham. Here are the paper's Key Points as they appeared in that issue: Although great strides have been made over the last 20 years to improve clinicians' recommendations, errors remain in preventive and curative medicine that pose considerable risks that patients may not be aware of. We can no longer ignore the uncertainty surrounding all but the simplest forms of medical decisions. Clinicians need to identify and clearly communicate to their patients the uncertainties and risks associated with clinical decision making so all parties can make rational treatment choices. When faced with complex cases, many practitioners tend to be overconfident in their judgments, underestimating the possibility their decisions might be wrong and thereby failing to examine additional evidence to refute or further substantiate those decisions. We offer several recommendations to reduce uncertainty and the risk of harm when making clinical decisions. These include recognizing the cognitive bias that may lead to overconfidence in diagnosis and treatment, improving the integrity of medical research, and containing the undue influence of vested interests. Foresight now presents two commentaries on the article-the first is from John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and health policy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28-30 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:28-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Title: Medicine and Risk Transfer Abstract: Foresight's Winter 2019 issue featured the article "Predicting Medical Risks and Appreciating Uncertainty" by Spyros Makridakis, Ann Wakefield, and Richard Kirkham. Here are the paper's Key Points as they appeared in that issue: Although great strides have been made over the last 20 years to improve clinicians' recommendations, errors remain in preventive and curative medicine that pose considerable risks that patients may not be aware of. We can no longer ignore the uncertainty surrounding all but the simplest forms of medical decisions. Clinicians need to identify and clearly communicate to their patients the uncertainties and risks associated with clinical decision making so all parties can make rational treatment choices. When faced with complex cases, many practitioners tend to be overconfident in their judgments, underestimating the possibility their decisions might be wrong and thereby failing to examine additional evidence to refute or further substantiate those decisions. We offer several recommendations to reduce uncertainty and the risk of harm when making clinical decisions. These include recognizing the cognitive bias that may lead to overconfidence in diagnosis and treatment, improving the integrity of medical research, and containing the undue influence of vested interests. Foresight now presents two commentaries on the article-the first is from John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and health policy and the other from Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan and other works on risk management. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-32 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:31-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shaun Snapp Title: Monetized Forecast-Error Comparisons Abstract: Standard error metrics such as the MAPE are not effective in directing a company to make changes that will have the most significant impact. Rather, it is in the monetization of forecast error that we enable the best use of forecasting resources. This article illustrates the calculation of the monetized forecast-error metric and presents the author's free application designed to steer improvement in forecast accuracy at specific product/locations. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-38 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:33-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lawrence Vanston Title: Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Another Voice Abstract: Author Vanston writes, "Over the past year I have had the pleasure to read Foresight's five-part series "Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence" by Spyros Makridakis. Recently I was asked to offer my thoughts on these articles as a forecaster with a deep interest in AI. Since I have a lot to say, I agreed. First, Spyros has done a masterly job conveying a complex and broad-ranging topic. He has raised many of the crucial issues and made the importance of this topic very clear. There are few people with his insight and experience in forecasting who could have done this, and he has done it well. Here I will add my voice, focusing on areas in which I thought the article was weak (e.g, AI performance forecasts); areas that Spyros covers well, but are crucial enough to deserve further illumination (AI's impact on employment and the dangers of AI); and areas of disagreement (brain-computer interfaces, blockchain, and AI for forecasting)." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-45 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:39-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Title: Response to Lawrence Vanston Abstract: Makridakis responds to Lawrence Vanston's commentary on his five-part Foresight paper Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence, making remarks about some of their major disagreements and issues. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46-47 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:46-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Editor Title: Interview with Lawrence Vanston, President, Technology Futures, Inc. Abstract: Vanston is asked about his career in forecasting and predictions for the future of AI. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 48-48 Issue: 53 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:53:p:48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Title: Judgmental Model Selection Abstract: Although judgment plays a significant role in the production and acceptance of forecasts, its performance in model selection has not been tested. In this article, Fotios demonstrates that the application of judgment to the selection of a forecasting model can improve forecast accuracy, and he presents the conditions where this is most likely to be the case. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-10 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:p:4-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Commentary: A Surprisingly Useful Role for Judgment Abstract: Goodwin is one of several writers to comment on the lead article in Issue 54 by Fotios Petropoulos, Judgmental Model Selection. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 11-12 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:p:11-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nigel Harvey Title: Commentary: Algorithmic Aversion and Judgmental Wisdom Abstract: Nigel Harvey is one of several writers to comment on the lead article in Issue 54 by Fotios Petropoulos, Judgmental Model Selection. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-14 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:p:13-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eric Stellwagen Title: Commentary: Model Selection in Forecasting Software Abstract: Stellwagen is one of several writers to comment on the lead article in Issue 54 by Fotios Petropoulos, Judgmental Model Selection. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-16 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:p:15-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Title: Commentary: Exploit Information from the M4 Competition Abstract: Makridakis is one of several writers to comment on the lead article in Issue 54 by Fotios Petropoulos, Judgmental Model Selection. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-17 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:p:17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shaun Snapp Title: Book Review: Data Science for Supply Chain Forecast, by Nicolas Vandeput Abstract: Snapp reviews the organization and topics in the book and comments, "Vandeput's book has a lot to recommend it, including introductory coverage of forecasting fundamentals in its first half. . . Its main intent is to provide background and information for people who want to use data-science methods." Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-20 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:p:18-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Diego Pedregal Title: State Space Modeling for Practitioners Abstract: State Space methods have been around among economists for some time, though often concealed under a veil of formality that has prevented their use for practitioners. This article offers a more gentle, nontechnical introduction to State Space while going deeply enough to enable use of the SS framework in practice. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-25 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:p:21-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas Wolfram Title: Benefits and Challenges of Corporate Prediction Markets Abstract: While prediction markets have become common platforms for political forecasts, they have received limited interest in the business world. Here, Thomas Wolfram discusses recent research on the benefits and challenges of implementing corporate PMs. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-36 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:p:29-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Interview with Thomas Wolfram Abstract: Wolfram, initially an IT person who switched to consulting, explains how he became interested in prediction markets, now the subject of his research and doctoral thesis. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 37-37 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:p:37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Gray Title: Why Is It So Hard to Hold Anyone Accountable for the Sales Forecast? Abstract: Chris Gray probes the critical questions of responsibility and accountability for the forecasts and demand plans. The all-too-common problem of "everyone is responsible, no one is accountable" tends to appear in many multistep processes like demand planning. His article presents an indispensable checklist of issues that every organization must address to clarify individual responsibilities as well as overall accountability for results. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-43 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:38-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alec Finney Title: Communicating the Forecast: Providing Decision Makers with Insights Abstract: Forecasts are necessary, but not in themselves sufficient for effective decision making. Here, Alec Finney describes his takeaways from asking decision makers to reveal what's missing from the numerical outputs they receive from forecasters. Key themes that emerge are the need to agree on assumptions, manage risk, and sell "a story-not a spreadsheet." His analysis led to the development of a new sharing platform to improve communication and decision making. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-48 Issue: 54 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:54:p:44-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Phillip Yelland Author-Name: Zeynep Erkin Baz Author-Name: David Serafini Title: Forecasting at Scale: The Architecture of a Modern Retail Forecasting System Abstract: In this first of a three-part article, Phillip Yelland, Zeynep Erkin Baz, and David Serafini, technical leads in the Data Science/AI team at Target, describe their team's efforts to construct a demand forecasting system capable of efficiently generating the nearly one billion weekly forecasts required by the Target Corporation. They highlight the interplay of challenges arising in the contexts of statistical modeling, software engineering, and business practice and explain how the team surmounted obstacles in these three fields of knowledge. Subsequent parts of the article will address the process of implementing the forecasting system and its maintenance in production. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-18 Issue: 55 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:55:p:10-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Interview with Dr. Phillip Yelland Abstract: Yelland speaks about his career as a supply-chain forecaster and gives his thoughts about the future of the field. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-19 Issue: 55 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:55:p:19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tim Januschowski Author-Name: Jan Gasthaus Author-Name: Yuyang Wang Title: Open-Source Forecasting Tools in Python Abstract: The authors from Amazon Web Services have been heavily engaged in deep learning modeling and forecasting from neural networks. Their two-part tutorial and analysis of neural forecasting appeared in the Summer and Fall 2018 issues of this journal. Here they review the state of open-source software options for forecasting, concentrating on alternative platforms to the R package. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-26 Issue: 55 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:55:p:20-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: Autonomous or "Lights Out" Supply-Chain Planning: What New Technology Is Required Abstract: Analogous to the emergence of autonomous vehicles is the momentum toward autonomous supply-chain planning, given names such as "lights out" planning. Niels van Hove describes this development as the third wave of supply-chain planning, following the functionality in ERPs (first wave) and advanced planning software (second wave). But he ar-gues that before the lights can be turned out-i.e., before human input can be eliminated-many technological hurdles must be overcome. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-34 Issue: 55 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:55:p:31-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefan De Kok Title: Commentary: Close the Loop, Stabilize, and Respond Abstract: De Kok comments on Niels van Hove's article in the fall issue of Foresight on supply-chain planning and what new technology is required. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-38 Issue: 55 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:55:p:35-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: Book review of Forecasting: An Essential Introduction Abstract: Gilliland explains that this recent book by Jennifer Castle, Michael P. Clements, and David F. Hendry is an introduction to economic rather than business forecasting. "While the two overlap in many ways, this book exposes some significant, fundamental differences that make economic forecasting an even more vexing challenge." The text is a basic, starting point for students and practitioners. "One of its great merits is that the authors are not cheerleaders or apologists for the economic forecasting profession. Instead, they acknowledge the many great failings of economic forecasts and do not shy away from addressing the generally poor reputation of the profession. . . . Despite the apparently dismal prospects for success in the economic forecasting profession, there is considerable value in the lessons shared in this book." Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-42 Issue: 55 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:55:p:39-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel G. Philps Title: Continual Learning: The Next Generation of Artificial Intelligence Abstract: Dan Philps provides an introduction to automated machine learning and its possible next-generation realization, continual learning (CL). CL advances the state of the art by attempting to automatically learn different tasks while retaining knowledge from previous model implementations. This article presents an application of CL to investment decisions. It also offers the interesting perspective that complexity is not simply a technical characteristic of a model formulation, but also a resultant of the application of human judgment. Although CL may be more technically complex than many forecasting models, it reduces if not eliminates the complexity from judgmental human inputs. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-47 Issue: 55 Volume: Year: 2019 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:55:p:43-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Could These Recent Findings Improve Your Judgmental Forecasts? Abstract: In his Hot New Research column, Goodwin reports on recent studies involving the accuracy of forecasts: depending on late adjustments, the length of history available, the factor of competition, and the practice of combining and averaging forecasts. He concludes that all of these research findings may help lead to more accurate forecasts overall. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-9 Issue: 56 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:56:p:7-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thanos Goltsos Author-Name: Aris SyntetoS Title: Operations decisions in circular economic contexts, like remanufacturing, face dual uncertainties. They not only rely on demand forecasts but also on forecasts of returned items. It is net demand (demand minus returns) that drives replenishment. So how does this dual-source uncertainty affect the forecasting task? In this article, Thanos and Aris discuss the circular economy and the challenges of forecasting returns in a remanufacturing context. They show that serialization, the ability to link the timing of returns and sales, can substantially improve forecasts of returns, and hence of net demand. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-17 Issue: 56 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:56:p:10-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Title: Commentary: Why Is Forecasting for Remanufacturing Hard? Abstract: In his commentary on the article about Remanufacturing by Goltsos and Syntetos (also in this issue of Foresight), Ganeshan agrees that returns management is critical and adds to the discussion of why it is so difficult to manage. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-19 Issue: 56 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:56:p:18-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joseph H. Katz Title: Monitoring Forecast Models Using Control Charts Abstract: In this article, Joe Katz presents a new application of control charts for automatic monitoring of forecast errors. He reviews the traditional rules for statistical process control and then applies these along with custom rules to determine whether a forecasting model should be maintained, adjusted/refit, or discarded and replaced. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-25 Issue: 56 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:56:p:20-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Duncan Klett Title: Smarter Supply Chains through AI Abstract: In this article, Duncan Klett portrays a supply chain as a multifaceted control system in which a reduction in latency (delays) offers the most leverage for improved supply-chain performance. He sees a broad role for AI/ML in furthering this goal, through automating processes, validating data, segmenting items, and generating forecasts. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-35 Issue: 56 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:56:p:30-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dean Sorensen Title: Strategic IBP: Driving Profitable Growth in Complex Global Organizations Abstract: In the past few years, Foresight has printed several articles offering visions of Integrated Business Planning (IBP). The term often is used as essentially interchangeable with Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP), with its emphasis on the forecasting and planning functions of the organization. Now Dean Sorensen offers his perspective on IBP, with a specific focus on global manufacturers (GMs). He thinks that what we have been calling IBP is too narrow to be considered "fully integrated." What is missing, Dean explains, is the strategic element of a truly integrated process, with the consequence that GMs are unable to realize the value from effective management of complexity. It is a call to arms for a rethink of how we can optimize organizational resources. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-45 Issue: 56 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:56:p:36-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pete Alle Title: Commentary on Strategic IBP Abstract: In his commentary on Sorensen's article on Strategic IBP (also in this issue of Foresight), Alle says he agrees with many of its key points but takes issue with a few others. For example, rather than supporting Sorensen's suggestion that IBP be owned by Finance, Alle argues that the General Manager would be a better choice. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46-47 Issue: 56 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:56:p:46-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dean Sorensen Title: Response to Pete Alle's Commentary Abstract: While agreeing with many of Alle's judgments about Strategic IBP, Sorensen adds comments about the 5-step process, its implementation and evolution, and siloed decision making; he stays firm in his opinion that Finance should own the process. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 48-48 Issue: 56 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:56:p:48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: The M4 Forecasting Competition-Takeaways for the Practitioner Abstract: Should practitioners care about the M4? Does it reflect any of the complex realities faced by business forecasters? Or was it just a scholarly exercise, of interest only to forecasting academics? The M4 Forecasting Competition involved 61 competitors and benchmarks forecasting 100,000 time series with frequencies ranging from hourly to yearly. The competition led to a wealth of analysis and commentary on the relevance and implications of the results, including publication of 35 articles in a dedicated issue of the International Journal of Forecasting guest edited by Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos. Here, Mike Gilliland provides background history and motivation for the M4, competition results, and important takeaways for business forecasting practitioners. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-10 Issue: 57 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:57:p:5-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Title: Commentary: The M4 Competition and a Look to the Future Abstract: In commenting on Michael Gilliland's article on the M4 Competitions, Petropoulos agrees with many of his central points and proceeds to reinforce some arguments and highlight several additional elements of the competition. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 11-12 Issue: 57 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:57:p:11-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Will Deep and Machine Learning Solve Our Forecasting Problems? Abstract: After clarifying some terms related to ML and AI, Kolassa gives a summary of their successes in recent years, then states they are still not as good as their hype. Problems include data hunger, dubious input data, and opacity, among others. He concludes that though they are valuable additions to the tool box, they will not solve all our forecasting challenges. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-18 Issue: 57 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:57:p:13-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Interview with Tim Januschowski, Manager, Machine Learning Science at Amazon Web Services Abstract: Januschowski answers questions about his forecasting career, including first responsibilities, highlights, most exciting projects, and current challenges, in addition to his work on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-20 Issue: 57 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:57:p:19-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Two Cheers for Rebooting AI: Building Artificial Intelligence We Can Trust Abstract: Kolassa reviews this new book by Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, which aims at educating the public about ML and AI and giving a reality check on their usefulness. The authors agree with Kolassa's own conclusions on the topic, featured in this same issue of Foresight. However, the reviewer gives only two cheers for the book because its authors offer no way forward for adding understanding and meaning to the process. Read it for the reality check, he says, but don't expect a clear vision for the future. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-23 Issue: 57 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:57:p:21-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Phillip Yelland Author-Name: Zeynep Erkin Baz Title: Developing a Modern Retail Forecasting System: People and Processes Abstract: In the first installment of this three-part series, as technical leads in the Data Science/AI team at U.S. retailer Target, we described the overall architecture and design of a demand forecasting system capable of efficiently generating the nearly one billion weekly forecasts required for Target's operations. In this second article, we recount some of the lessons learned in the process of developing and implementing the forecasting system. As was the case with the system architecture in the first article, its location at the intersection of statistics/mathematics, software engineering, and business practice makes the actual process of developing the forecasting system especially challenging. Here we set out the challenges we encountered, along with the steps we took to address them, in the form of patterns-rules that describe problems and how they may be resolved, along with trade-offs that should be taken into account when doing so. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-38 Issue: 57 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:57:p:27-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Environmental Conundrum-Projections to 2050 Abstract: Sohn discusses global policy debates, accomplishments, and challenges as we enter the third decade of this century. Topics include the providers of global energy forecasts, energy intensity, the 2015 Paris Agreement, baseline projections, and the electrification of life. In the new global energy regime, considerable progress has been made, though projects do not presently meet goals. Sohn states that further progress can be accomplished when engineering and economics are more sound and when politicians are brave enough to defy the special interests that try to influence them. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-45 Issue: 57 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Spring File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:57:p:39-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shari De Baets Title: Hello World: How to Be Human in the Age of the Machine by Hannah Fry Abstract: De Baets organizes her review of Fry's recent book around these topics most likely to be impacted by the coming technological revolution: Power, Data, Justice, Medicine, Cars, Crime, and Art. The reviewer recommends the book, "written as popular science should be written: accessible, yet with a firm foundation in scientific research. She uses stories and examples aplenty to illustrate how AI influences and will continue to affect our lives." Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-6 Issue: 58 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:58:p:4-6/ Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yue Li Author-Name: Diane Berry Author-Name: Jason Lee Title: How to Choose among Three Forecasting Methods: Machine Learning, Statistical Models, and Judgmental Forecasts Abstract: Forecasting methods are usually categorized into three types: statistical models, machine-learning models, and judgmental (or expert) forecasts. In this article, Yue Li, Diane Berry, and Jason Lee of the Global Advanced Analytics Group with Bain & Company present their views on the strengths and weaknesses of the three forecasting methods. Based on their forecasting experiences across many industries, they offer recommendations on how to decide when to use each model as well as when a combination of methods should be considered. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-14 Issue: 58 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:58:p:7-14/ Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Commentary on "How to Choose among Three Forecasting Methods: Machine Learning, Statistical Models, and Judgmental Forecasts" Abstract: In his Commentary on choosing which forecasting method to use (also in Issue 58 of Foresight), Stephan Kolassa presents his own assessment of the interpretability, stability, and scalability of the three different approaches, in the process clarifying the bases for these ratings. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-16 Issue: 58 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:58:p:15-16/ Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Casper Bojer Author-Name: Jens Peder Meldgaard Title: The M5: A Preview from Prior Competitions Abstract: The M5 competition, in progress with more than 25,000 participants-a very dramatic increase from the 49 competitors in the M4-will address many criticisms of the relevance of forecasting competitions to the business world. Now, participating forecasters will be developing models to forecast high-frequency data (daily and weekly buckets, including many intermittent series) that are organized into a detailed product hierarchy of Walmart retail sales and with real-time information provided on external variables and events: in short, a big leap from the M4 toward the realities of business-forecasting challenges. In this article, Casper Bojer and Jens Peder Meldgaard from Aalborg University in Denmark highlight key results of six prior competitions as a foretaste of what we can expect to learn from the M5. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-23 Issue: 58 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:58:p:17-23/ Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Tremblay Title: Medical Errors in the Age of the Intelligent Machine Abstract: There are great expectations for the role of artificial intelligence in health care, a system within which small errors can have life-changing implications. In this article, Mike Tremblay explores the potential role of AI toward reduction of medical errors. How doctors and AI work together becomes a critical feature of the clinical landscape as future medical errors are liable to arise from this relationship. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-35 Issue: 58 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:58:p:27-35/ Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Agneta Ramosaj Author-Name: Marino Widmer Title: How Stagger Charts Can Improve Forecast Accuracy Abstract: Stagger charts offer a valuable tool for displaying forecasts and forecast errors. In this article, Agneta Ramosaj and Marino Widmer describe the role of stagger charts in forecasting and extend the tool into pivot tables that display multiple views of the business. They then provide a case study to illustrate how a small-to-medium enterprise (SME) applied these tools to improve its forecasting performance. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-41 Issue: 58 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:58:p:36-41/ Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mike Gilliland Title: Commentary: Another Use of the Stagger Chart Abstract: Gilliland comments on the previous article in Foresight about the usefulness of the stagger chart. However, he raises the possibility that a forecast may become less, rather than more, accurate as forecasts proceed and suggests one factor may be a negative practice called the hold-and-roll, in which missed forecasts are rolled into future periods to stick with a long-range plan. This practice can snowball and lead into greater forecast errors in the future. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-42 Issue: 58 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:58:p:42/ Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: Technology Support in Business Planning: Automation, Augmentation, and Human Centricity Abstract: In his 2019 Foresight article, Niels van Hove examined eight technological hurdles that must be overcome to enable autonomous or "lights out" supply-chain planning. He reasoned that to support such planning we need to implement a third wave of integrated supply-chain planning software. In this article, Niels argues that these technological advances can lead to either (a) planning process and decision automation, or (b) planning and decision augmentation. Process automation replaces human action with technology while cognitive automation replaces human decision making with technology. On the other hand, augmentation-expanding supply-chain knowledge with insights, predictions, and recommendations-maintains human centricity in the decision- making process. Although third-wave supply-chain software could cover all these elements, Niels believes that human centricity is critical, and that decision augmentation should be the more desirable form for business planning. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-48 Issue: 58 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Summer File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:58:p:43-48/ Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Phillip Yelland Title: A Modern Retail Forecasting System in Production Abstract: This is the third and final installment of an article documenting the large-scale demand-forecasting system developed by U.S. retailer Target. The first two articles in the series described the architecture and design of the system and recounted lessons learned in the development process. This last piece explores the issues that arise when a forecasting system such as Target's is actually deployed to provide forecasts for users and recommends steps that can be taken to address those issues. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2020 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-15 Issue: 59 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:59:p:5-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: Commentary: It's the Soft Problems that Are Hard to Overcome Abstract: Clarke comments on the previous article by Yelland, identifying soft problems and explaining why they are hard to control. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2020 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-19 Issue: 59 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:59:p:16-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Phillip Yelland Author-Name: Zeynep Erkin Baz Title: Response to Commentary of Simon Clarke Abstract: The authors present a table for incorporating Clarke's comments about their previous article and specify steps for dealing with soft problems. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2020 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-25 Issue: 59 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:59:p:20-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: After Shock: The World's Foremost Futurists Reflect on 50 Years of Future Shock Abstract: Sohn reviews this series of essays and commentaries, collected by John Schroeder, "that reflect upon the Tofflers' original opus." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2020 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-31 Issue: 59 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:59:p:29-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Wood Author-Name: Nada Sanders Title: Dealing with "Deepfakes": How Synthetic Media Will Distort Reality, Corrupt Data, and Impact Forecasts Abstract: Preview and key points from the authors: Distorted data are nothing new. However, deepfake technology-the term is a combination of "deep learning" and "fake"- has created the ability to distort reality in new and alarming ways. This technology is capable of fabricating audio, video, and even text files that are almost indistinguishable from authentic documentation. Machine-learning capabilities are escalating the technology's sophistication, making deepfakes ever more realistic and increasingly resistant to detection. The implications for communication, data integrity, forecasting, and decision making are vast and unequivocally grim. Our best hope for dealing with deepfakes may lie with the creative problem solving of the data-science community, sponsored and supported by corporate leadership. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2020 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-37 Issue: 59 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:59:p:32-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Colin Lewis-Beck Author-Name: Michael Lewis-Beck Title: U.S. Presidential Election Forecasting: The Economist Model Abstract: In June of this year, The Economist began publishing regular forecasts of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In this article, Colin and Michael Lewis-Beck describe the model used, evaluate its potential strengths and weaknesses, and provide many perspectives on election forecasting models in general. They conclude with forecasts of the results of the vote in the upcoming November 3 U.S. presidential election. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2020 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-44 Issue: 59 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:59:p:38-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Author-Name: Ellen Bonnell Author-Name: Simon Clarke Author-Name: Robert Fildes Author-Name: Mike Gilliland Author-Name: Jim Hoover Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: The Benefits of Systematic Forecasting for Organizations: The UFO Project Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a realistic assessment of the potential benefits to business organizations that derive from applying systematic forecasting methods, particularly with respect to operational and tactical forecasting problems. Our overall goal is to improve the usage of forecasting in organizations- UFO-while incentivizing the adoption of systematic forecasting in organizations that now employ only ad hoc methods. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2020 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-56 Issue: 59 Volume: Year: 2020 Month: Fall File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2020:i:59:p:45-56 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: How to Harness the Wisdom of Crowds Abstract: Goodwin writes about a forecasting contest in Alaska, started over 100 years ago, to forecast when the ice would break up on the Tanana River. This became "a natural experiment to test whether a large group of people can make an accurate forecast of a volatile event when their individual judgments are aggregated." Colleagues at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks investigated by researching the data over the years. Their results supported the theory of the wisdom of crowds, as "none of the statistical methods beat the aggregate predictions of the competitors." Goodwin cites conditions that favor group-based forecasts and explores the question whether individual forecasts should be weighted. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jeff Baker Title: Maximizing Forecast Value Added through Machine Learning and "Nudges" Abstract: We know that manual adjustments of statistical forecasts can fail to improve accuracy by any significant degree and frequently even make forecasts less accurate. It is therefore, in the forecaster's interest to limit adjustments to those likely to provide meaningful accuracy improvements. In this article, Jeff Baker introduces the notion of a threshold level of forecast value added (FVA) to delineate beneficial from damaging overrides to statistical forecasts. He then presents a model to predict FVA from the characteristics of the override and recommends use of the "nudge" to influence how stakeholders view and implement manual overrides. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-15 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:8-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Fildes Title: Commentary: Managing FVA Abstract: Fildes responds to an article by Jeff Baker in the same issue of Foresight, Maximizing Forecast Value Added through Machine Learning and "Nudges." Fildes questions, "When and by how much should baseline forecasts be adjusted?" Topics include measuring adjustment size, managing the adjustments, and the prospects for FVA. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-17 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:16-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: Commentary: Another Role for ML in Forecasting Abstract: Gilliland responds to an article by Jeff Baker in the same issue of Foresight, Maximizing Forecast Value Added through Machine Learning and "Nudges." He considers the roles ML can play with topics such as Saving Resources / Improving FVA, Dispersion-Scaled Override, and A "Nudge" from Behavioral Economics, concluding with the challenges ML presents for forecasters. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-19 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:18-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: A Peek at the Next Century: Population Projections to 2100 and Their Economic and Geopolitical Consequences Abstract: Sohn reports on long-term population projections and the demographic drivers that will influence them to predict what global conditions may be in 2100. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-24 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:20-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Clive Jones Title: Can We Profit from Trading on Predictions of High-Low Stock Prices? Abstract: Conventional wisdom has it that movements in daily stock prices are wholly unpredictable. Known as the efficient markets hypothesis (emh), the belief is that today's stock prices reflect all public information and that no form of technical analysis can aid investors. Many have taken issue with this belief, pointing out that stocks can deviate from their fair-market values so that it's possible to beat the market. In this article, Clive Jones, CEO of a financial and data-analytics team, argues that, even while consistent with the emh, profitable trading strategies can be devised based on forecasts of daily stock price highs and lows (HL). The takeaway for financial forecasters is to put more focus on the HL changes in stock prices. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:28-32 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:28-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Author-Name: Evangelos Spiliotis Title: The M5 Competition and the Future of Human Expertise in Forecasting Abstract: The M5 forecasting competition is the latest and most widely contested since the first M competition in 1979. Numerous articles have been written appraising the structure of the competitions and the value of their results for forecasting methodology and practice. Mike Gilliland's discussion of the prior competition-the M4-in Foresight's Spring 2020 issue as well as Casper Bojer and Jens Peter Meldgaard's preview of the M5 in our Summer 2020 issue offer nontechnical overviews of these most recent forecasting competitions and their potential influence on the ways we forecast. Other background information on the competitions can be found at https://mofc.unic.ac.cy/. As there was with the M4, there will be a special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting-our sister IIF publication-devoted to a comprehensive assessment of the M5. The preprint "The M5 Accuracy Competition: Results, Findings, and Conclusions" provides a detailed discussion of the participants, methods, and results: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344487258. Here, Spyros Makridakis, creator and overseer of the M forecasting competitions (and the person for whom they are named), and Evangelos Spiliotis, his closest collaborator, distill that initial report on the M5 to highlight the winning entries and what they say about the value of expertise in forecast modeling. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:33-37 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:33-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Commentary: We'll Still Need Expertise Abstract: Kolassa comments on the article by Makridakis and Spiliotis in the same issue of Foresight, The M5 Competition and the Future of Human Expertise in Forecasting. Considering the prediction that ML may be able to do most of the work in forecasting, he is dubious and explains why he still sees an important role for forecasters, even in the data science world, whatever title these people may have. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:38-38 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:38-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: Commentary: Will the Value of Forecasting Knowledge and Experience Diminish? Abstract: Clarke comments on the article by Makridakis and Spiliotis in the same issue of Foresight, The M5 Competition and the Future of Human Expertise in Forecasting. In answer to the question in his title, Clarke concludes, "Domain knowledge is essential-and will remain so" and explains why. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:39-39 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:39-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tim Januschowski Author-Name: Jan Gasthaus Author-Name: Yuyang Wang Title: Commentary: The M5 Competition: A Critical Appraisal Abstract: In commenting on another article in the same issue of Foresight, The M5 Competition and the Future of Human Expertise in Forecasting, the authors conclude, "For forecasting practitioners dealing with their own large-scale forecasting problems, most findings about the performance of the competing methods should not surprise but rather validate current knowledge and practice." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:40-41 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:40-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: Commentary: The M5 and the Future Role of Expertise Abstract: In commenting on another article in the same issue of Foresight, The M5 Competition and the Future of Human Expertise in Forecasting, Gilliland responds to a question posed there--Is the forecaster becoming obsolete? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:42-42 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:42-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lawrence Vanston Title: Commentary: Academicians and Practitioners Will Thrive Abstract: Vanston comments on the article by Makridakis and Spiliotis in the same issue of Foresight, The M5 Competition and the Future of Human Expertise in Forecasting. "The results of the M5 competition are right on forecast. We have a rapidly improving new technology (ML) and a played-out old technology (statistical forecasting). At first, the new technology was inferior, then it reached parity (M4), and now is clearly superior (M5). That leads to technology substitution where the new replaces the old, typically following an S-shaped curve. It's the classic story: folks in the old technology are forced to adapt or leave the business." He speculates about who will be able to adapt fairly easily to the influence of ML and who will have a harder time. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:43-43 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:43-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Author-Name: Evangelos Spiliotos Title: Reply to the Commentaries Abstract: The authors of an article in issue 60 of Foresight, The M5 Competition and the Future of Human Expertise in Forecasting, comment on the many reactions their comments have elicited and agree with the feedback received but also take the opportunity to clarify some of their conclusions about ML. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:44-44 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:44-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Author-Name: UFO Project Team Title: The UFO Project: Initial Survey Results Abstract: An introduction to the UFO (Usage of Forecasting in Organizations) mission, objective, and plans is in the Fall 2020 issue of Foresight under the title "The Benefits of Systematic Forecasting for Organizations: The UFO Project." A key focus of this initiative has been to understand why some companies fail to use systematic forecasting methods, despite the huge advances made in forecasting know-how and software support, and the considerable benefits that come from the utilization of such methods. One supposition is that, in many cases, the non-using firms feel they are too small to bother. To this end, a survey instrument was designed and distributed to over 5,000 mainly small businesses registered with the SBA. This article provides a summary of the survey results. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages:45-48 Issue: 60 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Winter File-URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:60:p:45-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jonathon Karelse Title: Mitigating Unconscious Bias in Forecasting Abstract: The author led a team that surveyed global businesses to study the prevalence of unconscious biases and heuristics in the forecasting/demand-planning process. The survey engaged over 500 demand planners/forecasters and others from major multinationals like Heineken and Dell Technologies, as well as representation from smaller companies and individuals. The study created a series of personality questions and set of forecasting exercises to determine not only the prevalence of biases and heuristics, but their relation to personality types and their impact in forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-14 Issue: 61 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:61:p:5-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Commentary: The Case for Parsimonious Intervention Abstract: In a commentary on Jonathon Karelse's article in Foresight, The Case for Parsimonious Intervention, Goodwin addresses the role of judgment in organizational forecasting. He agrees it is pervasive and suggests several different reasons this is true, then presents a number of steps that can be taken to minimize its influence. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-17 Issue: 61 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:61:p:15-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jeff Baker Title: Commentary: Cross-Disciplinary Approaches to Supply-Chain Issues Abstract: In a commentary on Jonathon Karelse's article in Foresight, The Case for Parsimonious Intervention, Baker reiterates the costliness of both over and underforecasting and says S and OP can play a major role in overcoming bias in the process. "The varied-and often contrary-goals of this team provide an ideal proving ground to create a culture that is aware of its own biases and can overcome them. " Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-19 Issue: 61 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:61:p:18-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tonya Boone Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Title: The Great Toilet Paper Buy: Lessons for the Supply Chain Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic took the world by storm. Its consequences have profoundly altered every facet of our lives, in many ways that are still ongoing. In their latest contribution to Foresight, Tonya Boone and Ram Ganeshan here take a close look at one of our most essential consumer products-toilet paper-and how crisis-driven demand has reshaped its manufacture and distribution to alter, and very possibly improve, the supply chain. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-23 Issue: 61 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:61:p:20-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nada Sanders Author-Name: John Wood Title: Combining Humans and Machines in an Emerging Form of Enterprise: the Humachine Abstract: Nada Sanders and John Wood, authors of The Humachine, believe that business leaders would be wise to resist the temptation to replace traditional business processes entirely with artificial intelligence (AI). Instead, they propose that a synthesis of human and machine will provide benefits beyond those achieved by humans or machines alone. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28-35 Issue: 61 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:61:p:28-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: Commentary: AI Is Here to Automate the Knowledge Worker Abstract: This is a commentary on an article in Foresight, Combining Humans and Machines in an Emerging Form of Enterprise: the Humachine, by Nada Sanders and John Wood, In speculating on how AI can be used, Van Hove's thesis is that "AI is here to automate the knowledge worker." He asserts AI can be helpful in four sorts of decision making: operational, planning, strategic, and cultural, and forecasts that certain organizational changes will be required for AI and humans to work together effectively. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-38 Issue: 61 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:61:p:36-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Orrell Title: Commentary: ML Must Be Used with Care Abstract: In a commentary on an article in Foresight, Combining Humans and Machines in an Emerging Form of Enterprise: the Humachine, by Nada Sanders and John Wood, Orrell speculates on the central questions and challenge: How can humans and machines best work together for optimal results? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-40 Issue: 61 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:61:p:39-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ken Fordyce Title: Commentary: A Brief Historical Perspective on Integrating New Technology Abstract: In a commentary on an article in Foresight, Combining Humans and Machines in an Emerging Form of Enterprise: the Humachine, by Nada Sanders and John Wood, Fordyce offers "a historical perspective on the challenge of creating a humachine. "How to best support decision making with technology has been an ongoing challenge for many decades, producing both successes and failures." He proceeds to cite several examples and concludes that "the challenges to successful integration of technology into organizational processes are best addressed by small, advanced analytics teams" that possess several skills sets to apply to successful humachine tasks. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41-44 Issue: 61 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:61:p:41-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: The Data Detective: Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics by Tim Harford Abstract: In his review of this recent book, Sohn writes of our ever-present need (especially right now) to "offset biases, misconceptions, ill-defined terms, and other impurities in the data" we see and hear around us. Harford organizes his book around ten rules to follow to meet this goal. For example, "We should be skeptical of statistics that are in conflict with our everyday experience and common sense." Ask who or what is missing from the data, and resist taking for granted the accuracy of the data With fake information all around us, it's wise to remember that you can "prove" anything with statistics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-48 Issue: 61 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:61:p:45-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Resurrecting Retail: The Future of Business in a Post-Pandemic World by Doug Stephens Abstract: Stephan Kolassa's book review of Resurrecting Retail by Doug Stephens raises the question of whether the COVID disruptions decisively shifted the entire game of retail- as the author contends - or merely accelerated existing trends at play in the industry. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-7 Issue: 62 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:4-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alexei Alexandrov Author-Name: Philip Brooks Author-Name: I-Chen Lee Author-Name: George Monokroussos Title: Forecasting Demand during COVID-The Case of Wayfair Abstract: Wayfair, an e-commerce company, is one of the largest online destinations for home-goods shopping (wayfair.com). Faced, as most companies have been, with the challenges wrought by the COVID pandemic, Wayfair implemented a fundamental revamping of its demand-forecasting approach. In this article, the team that engineered this transformation describes their undertaking and its resulting performance. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-13 Issue: 62 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:8-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Turner Title: Strategy in Uncertain Times: Lenses to Approach Decision Making, Forecasting, and Planning Abstract: "Desperate times call for desperate measures" is a saying often attributed to Hippocrates; rapidly and drastically changing times require us to be flexible and adaptable. In this article, Chris Turner homes in on what he believes are four crucial lenses to looking at how businesses and organizations can survive and thrive during periods of extreme volatility and instability...otherwise known during the COVID pandemic as day-to-day life, and likely to become a hallmark of the post-pandemic world. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-21 Issue: 62 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:14-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: J. Peter Scoblic Author-Name: Philip E. Tetlock Title: A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future Abstract: The feature section in this issue is entitled A Better Crystal Ball. In their article of that name in the journal Foreign Affairs, reprinted with permission here, J. Peter Scoblic and Philip Tetlock propose a synthesis of scenario forecasting - the creation of plausible futures - with probabilistic judgments about the likelihood of different scenarios. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-32 Issue: 62 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:27-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Scenarios and Probabilities: Incompatible or Complementary? Abstract: Several commentaries on the "better crystal ball," this being the first, clarify the objectives of scenario development, examine the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and lay out important obstacles to the attachment of probabilities to uncertain events. The Scoblic-Tetlock response to the commentaries will be printed in the next issue of Foresight, 2021:Q4. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-35 Issue: 62 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:33-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Risk vs. Uncertainty Abstract: Several commentaries on the "better crystal ball," this being the second, clarify the objectives of scenario development, examine the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and lay out important obstacles to the attachment of probabilities to uncertain events. The Scoblic-Tetlock response to the commentaries will be printed in the next issue of Foresight, 2021:Q4. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-39 Issue: 62 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:36-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Scenarios with Probabilities for Financial Forecasting Abstract: Several commentaries on the "better crystal ball," this being the third, clarify the objectives of scenario development, examine the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and lay out important obstacles to the attachment of probabilities to uncertain events. The Scoblic-Tetlock response to the commentaries will be printed in the next issue of Foresight, 2021:Q4. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-42 Issue: 62 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:40-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefan De Kok Title: Probabilistic Scenarios in Demand and Supply Planning Abstract: Several commentaries on the "better crystal ball," this being the fourth, clarify the objectives of scenario development, examine the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and lay out important obstacles to the attachment of probabilities to uncertain events. The Scoblic-Tetlock response to the commentaries will be printed in the next issue of Foresight, 2021:Q4. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-46 Issue: 62 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:43-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mike Tremblay Title: Uncertainty Is the Human Condition Abstract: Several commentaries on the "better crystal ball," this being the fifth, clarify the objectives of scenario development, examine the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and lay out important obstacles to the attachment of probabilities to uncertain events. The Scoblic-Tetlock response to the commentaries will be printed in the next issue of Foresight, 2021:Q4. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 47-49 Issue: 62 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:47-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Fildes Title: Near-Term Questions for Long-Term Uncertainties Abstract: Several commentaries on the "better crystal ball," this being the sixth, clarify the objectives of scenario development, examine the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and lay out important obstacles to the attachment of probabilities to uncertain events. The Scoblic-Tetlock response to the commentaries will be printed in the next issue of Foresight, 2021:Q4. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 50-51 Issue: 62 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:50-51 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Abstract: Review of new book by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-11 Issue: 63 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:63:p:7-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christopher Plummer Title: Can Biases and Heuristics Be Unconscious? Abstract: While reading Jonathon Karelse's special feature article "Mitigating Unconscious Bias in Forecasting" (Foresight, Issue 61), the author Plummer felt unease when Karelse "shifted well-documented cognitive biases and heuristics into the world of the unconscious." Plummer states, "Biases are cognitive ... They have been and continue to be" and goes on to explain his position. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-13 Issue: 63 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:63:p:12-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Into the (Largely) Unknown: A Simple Way to Handle Uncertainty Abstract: In this first of a two-part article, Steve Morlidge and Paul Goodwin make a strong case for the use of possibility distributions to estimate likelihoods of different outcomes (e.g., sales levels) in situations, such as new-product introductions, where there are no past data to provide guidance. When we face decisions relating to an uncertain future, it's best not to pretend that we can make precise forecasts about what will transpire: there's no value in being precise about our ignorance. In these cases, simple, transparent methods that formally recognise our lack of knowledge, and the fuzziness that accompanies it, come into their own. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-20 Issue: 63 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:63:p:14-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Philip E. Tetlock Author-Name: J. Peter Scoblic Title: Can We Reconcile Narrativist and Probabilistic Modes of Thinking? Abstract: The previous issue of Foresight (2021: Q3) featured a special section built around the article "A Better Crystal Ball" written by J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock. In the central piece, the authors proposed a synergy of what traditionally have been considered two distinct approaches to judgmental forecasting: scenario planning and probabilistic forecasting. Scenario planners maintain that there are so many possible futures that one can imagine them only in terms of plausibility, not probability. By contrast, forecasters believe it is possible to calculate the odds of possible outcomes, thereby transforming amorphous uncertainty into quantifiable risk. Because each method has its strengths, the optimal approach is to combine them. The feature also showcased six commentaries by some renowned forecasting academics and practitioners. Several of the commentaries expressed skepticism about combining these two approaches in the face of deep uncertainty, emphasizing distinctions between risk, which can be quantified, and uncertainty, which perhaps cannot. The critical roundup included * Paul Goodwin: Scenarios and Probabilities: Incompatible or Complementary? * Steve Morlidge: Risk vs. Uncertainty * Roy Batchelor: Scenarios with Probabilities for Financial Forecasting * Stefan de Kok: Probabilistic Scenarios in Demand and Supply Planning * Mike Tremblay: Uncertainty Is the Human Condition * Robert Fildes: Near-Term Questions for Long-Term Uncertainties Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-24 Issue: 63 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:63:p:21-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: The Impact of COVID-19 on the Economy and Strategic Environment of the United States: A Review of Two New Studies Abstract: This review article summarizes two recent studies: A February 2021 report from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that projects the pandemic's impact on the U.S. labor market to 2029. A March 2021 report by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) that develops "key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the U.S." to 2040. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-35 Issue: 63 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:63:p:29-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elizabeth Yardley Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Title: Beyond Error Measures to the Utility and Cost of the Forecasts Abstract: The authors criticize the exclusive use of forecast-error metrics to evaluate forecast methods, arguing for evaluations of forecast value, a construct that also incorporates considerations of the utility to the forecast user (influence on decision making), the cost of computation, and opportunity cost of understandability. They highlight evidence on forecast utility and cost from recent studies and explore the implications for forecast-method selection. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-45 Issue: 63 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:63:p:36-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Author-Name: Hein Regeer Title: Integrated Business Planning: A New Narrative for an Old Process Abstract: Integrated Business Planning (IBP) has been a valuable business process since its incarnation as Sales & Operations Planning in the mid-1980s. The monthly cycle of S&OP meetings have been the forum in which a firm's forecasts have been presented and reconciled across functional areas. Authors Niels van Hove and Hein Regeer explain that while planning and forecasting technologies have benefitted from significant innovations since then, today's IBP seems unhinged from the day-to-day operations of the business. They call for a reinvention of traditional IBP that more fully integrates its governing meetings and reporting into operations, enabling faster decision making, better responsiveness to disruption, and liberation for planners to work on more strategic issues. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46-52 Issue: 63 Volume: Year: 2021 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:63:p:46-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Boylan Author-name: Aris Syntetos Title: Advances in Intermittent-Demand Forecasting Abstract: one of the most productive research partnerships in this generation of business forecasting has driven colleagues John Boylan (Lancaster U.) and Aris Syntetos (Cardiff) to craft major improvements to the methods employed to forecast demands for difficult data series. John and Aris have also presented new perspectives for understanding linkages between forecasting methods and requirements for production and inventory management. These threads now come together in their new book Intermittent Demand Forecasting: Context, Methods and Applications (Wiley, 2021). John had authored a tutorial, "Intermittent and Lumpy Demands: A Forecasting Challenge," in the inaugural issue of Foresight (2005), and the board thought the occasion of the new book would be perfect for an update on advances in the field these past 15 years. The authors agreed. Thus, our feature section in this issue begins with John and Aris's presentation Advances in Intermittent-Demand Forecasting (IDf). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 4-8 Issue: 64 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:64:p:4-8 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Title: Intermittent Demand Forecasting: Context, Methods and Applications (2021) by John Boylan and Aris Syntetos Abstract: In his review, Hoover asserts this new book "offers a reference guide you'll want near your desk. . . . It addresses many current issues in demand forecasting and does so comprehensively." Hoover also offers suggestions for some areas that might be added in subsequent issues. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 9-11 Issue: 64 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:64:p:9-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Commentary on Intermittent Demand Forecasting: Let's Look Next at Dynamics! Abstract: Commenting on the recent book by Boylan and Syntetos, Kolassa says "It delivers on its promise to appeal both to practitioners and academics, researchers and students alike, and is a wonderful step forward to bring the two groups of forecasters closer together. I particularly like no less than five aspects of the book (explained in the article), three of which are likely of more interest to practitioners, while the remaining two will be more relevant to academics." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-15 Issue: 64 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:64:p:12-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Boylan Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Title: Reply to Stephan Kolassa Commentary Abstract: The book's authors thank Kolassa for his approving comments and further discuss some of his points on the topic of intermittent demand forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-17 Issue: 64 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:64:p:16-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-name: Foresight Editor Len Tashman Title: Forecasters in the Field Abstract: Forecasters Boylan and Syntetos answer questions about how their partnership began and what prompted them to work on the current book, reviewed in issue 64 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-18 Issue: 64 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:64:p:18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Author-name: Paul Goodwin Title: Into the (Largely) Unknown, Part 2: Uses of Fuzzy Forecasting Abstract: This article is a follow-up to the previous one in Foresight, where the authors "introduced the principles of fuzzy logic to create possibility-based methods of forecasting." When there are limits to forecastability, "the absence of knowledge needed to make useful predictions mathematically necessitates that we use our judgment to generate forecasts." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-25 Issue: 64 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:64:p:19-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Evangelos Spiliotis Title: Decision Trees for Time-Series Forecasting Abstract: In this latest Foresight tutorial on forecasting methods, Evangelos Spiliotis takes us into the world of machine learning, introducing the decision-tree methods that have become a frequent and successful foundation of ML approaches to forecasting. He explains how these methods work and illustrates how they can be implemented for time-series forecasting. Previous tutorials have been compiled into the Foresight Guidebook entitled Forecasting Methods Tutorials, available online at forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-44 Issue: 64 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:64:p:30-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sarah Darin Title: Decision Trees in Automatic Forecasting Algorithms: The Implementation in Forecast Pro Abstract: Darin explains how decision trees are used in Forecast Pro, a popular off-the-shelf business forecasting software. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-48 Issue: 64 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:64:p:45-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Author-Name: Enno Siemsen Title: Representativeness: A New Criterion for Selecting Forecasts Abstract: Statistical criteria for selecting a best forecasting method from a group of candidates have been proposed, studied, and implemented widely in forecasting software. Very well-known are information criteria, such as the AIC, which balance performance and complexity, and validation techniques, which examine forecasting performance in a holdout sample. So it's a breath of fresh air to have a distinctly new take on method selection, which is what Fotios and Enno are presenting here. They offer strong evidence that method selection can be improved by accounting for the representativeness of the forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-12 Issue: 65 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:65:p:5-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nigel Harvey Author-Name: Shari De Baets Title: Commentary on Representativeness Abstract: Harvey and De Baets comment on the previous article in the Q2 2022 issue of Foresight by Fotios Petropoulos and Enno Siemsen. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-16 Issue: 65 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:65:p:13-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefan de Kok Title: An Extension of Possibility Distributions in Fuzzy Forecasting Abstract: In the prior two issues of Foresight, we printed a two-part article by Steve Morlidge and Paul Goodwin (MG) on the use of possibility distributions (an application of fuzzy forecasting) for assessing the uncertainty in views about the future. The examples MG provided were based on the assumption that the most appropriate basis of analysis would be a three-point triangular distribution of possibilities for best case, worst case, and most plausible case. In this article, Stefan de Kok uses one of the MG examples to show that there could be value added by accounting for more than these three cases. In geometric terms, the analysis based on a possibility distribution triangle is upgraded to a possibility pyramid. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-22 Issue: 65 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:65:p:17-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: STR: A Flexible New Decomposition Method for Analyzing and Forecasting Complex Time Series Abstract: Paul Goodwin's Hot New Research column in the Q2 2022 issue of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 23-26 Issue: 65 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:65:p:23-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: More Thoughts on STR Abstract: Kolassa comments on the new time-series decomposition methodology, a follow-up to Paul Goodwin's article in the Q2 2022 issue of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-29 Issue: 65 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:65:p:27-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: One-Number Forecasting: A Solution for Silo Behavior? Abstract: In this article, Simon Clarke takes a critical look at the common practice of consensus (one-number) forecasting. While its objective is laudable, he argues that its implementation raises serious issues about company requirements, functional behaviors, and organizational design. Simon recommends five actions to improve forecasting performance. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-38 Issue: 65 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:65:p:34-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Richard Herrin Title: Commentary: One-Number Forecast: How Will It Be Used? Abstract: Herrin has follow-up comments and questions about the previous article in Foresight (Q2, 2022) by Simon Clarke: One-Number Forecasting: A Solution for Silo Behavior? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-40 Issue: 65 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:65:p:39-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jim Hoover Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: The UFO Project (Usage of Forecasting in Organizations): Final Survey Results Abstract: An article in Issue 59 of Foresight (Fall 2020) "introduced the mission of the UFO project, a collaboration of academics and practitioners to explore the absence of a systematic forecasting capability in many organizations." In 2021 the UFO team designed a survey instrument, the initial results of which were reported in Issue 60 (Winter 2021). That survey targeted small businesses (fewer than 50 employees). Later the team the team developed an expanded survey, "distributed to several thousand firms varying in size from under 25 to 500-plus employees." This article reports the results of the follow-up questionnaire. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41-47 Issue: 65 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:65:p:41-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roy Batchelor Title: Konfessions of a Kibitzer Abstract: On the occasion of his retirement, Batchelor reflects on the highlights in his long career in forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-10 Issue: 66 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:66:p:5-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mike Gilliland Author-Name: Len Tashman Title: Batchelor Party Abstract: The editors of Foresight celebrate Batchelor's many contributions to the publication since its inception in 2005. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 11-12 Issue: 66 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:66:p:11-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mahdi R. Yousefi Author-Name: Stacey Faulkenberg Larsen Author-Name: Subramanian Iyer Title: The Demand Forecasting Project at Target: Improving Collaboration and Adoption Abstract: This article provides an update on the status of the Demand Forecasting Engine at Target, a system capable of efficiently generating more than one billion weekly forecasts required by different operations within the company. It describes the challenges faced in securing adoption of its forecasts and improving collaboration among data science, product management, and forecast user teams. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-20 Issue: 66 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:66:p:13-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Spavound Author-Name: Nikolaos Kourentzes Title: Making Forecasts More Trustworthy Abstract: Trustworthy forecasts, the authors argue, have four key components - reliability, stability, intelligibility, and alignment with user needs - and they offer guidance on how organizations can adapt their perspectives and behaviors to achieve more trustworthy forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-25 Issue: 66 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:66:p:21-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Author-Name: M. Sinan Gonul Author-Name: Dilek Onkal Title: Commentary on "Making Forecasts More Trustworthy" Abstract: In their commentary on the previous article in Foresight, Issue 66, the authors agree that trust in forecasting may have actually declined rather than improved and make suggestions on what can be done to improve the situation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-29 Issue: 66 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:66:p:26-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Subsampling Seasonal Series - A Simple Approach to Forecasting Complex Patterns Abstract: Goodwin again tackles the topic of seasonality in forecasting, referring to his article on STR in the previous issue of Foresight (65). Here he presents "a simpler, alternative approach" that was recently developed by others in the field. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-37 Issue: 66 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:66:p:34-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Keith Wiebe Author-Name: Timothy Sulser Author-Name: Nicola Cenacchi Title: Long-Term Projections of Food Production and Demand Abstract: Systematic modeling of food demand and supply began in the 1990s with initiatives from IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute - and other global organizations. These have now expanded to include biophysical and socioeconomic modeling tools in order to examine how food production, food security, and other food system outcomes are affected by climate and other socioeconomic and environmental changes. In this article, Keith, Timothy, and Nicola describe IFPRI's IMPACT model (the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade - "a network of linked economic, water, and crop models"), present IMPACT projections to 2050, and discuss the challenges and opportunities for global food and environmental policies. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-44 Issue: 66 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:66:p:38-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn (reviewer) Title: A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Words: Atlas of Forecasts: Modeling and Mapping Desirable Futures by Katy B?rner Abstract: In his admiring and enthusiastic review of Borner's last book, "a distillation of global modeling efforts, from their inception to the present," Sohn explains the five-part structure of the atlas, summarizing the main points of each. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-48 Issue: 66 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:66:p:45-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pierre Pinson Title: To Share or Not to Share? The Future of Collaborative Forecasting Abstract: Distributed data refers to information that flows from different sources and possibly different owners. Getting top value from distributed data requires a paradigm shift towards collaborative forecasting. Alternative frameworks exist to support collaborative forecasting, from collaborative analytics to data markets, and from analytics markets to prediction markets. While we should accept that not all data will be openly shared, rethinking forecasting processes with modern communication, distributed computation, and a market component could yield substantial improvements in forecast quality while unleashing new business models. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-15 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:8-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: Commentary on "To Share or Not to Share": Asymmetry of Data Ownership Abstract: Van Hove responds to the previous article in Issue 67 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-17 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:16-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Stevens Title: Commentary on "To Share or Not to Share": Legal Ramifications and FVA of Data Sharing Abstract: Stevens responds to the previous article in issue 67 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-19 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:18-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ram Ganeshan Title: Commentary on "To Share or Not to Share": Federated Data and Learning in the Supply Chain Abstract: Ganeshan responds to the feature article in issue 67 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-21 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:20-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sujit Singh Title: Commentary on "To Share or Not to Share": Third-Party Data Providers Abstract: Singh responds to the feature article in issue 67 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 22-22 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark Little Title: Histories of the Future by Jonathon P. Karelse Abstract: Jonathon Karelse gives us an excellent and indeed fascinating summary of the history of business forecasting. This well-written and easy read fills an important gap in the literature. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 23-25 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:23-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lawrence Vanston Title: Atlas of Forecasts by Katy B?rner Abstract: Though Vanston finds Borner's recent book more about modeling than forecasting, he echoes Ira Sohn's praise for the book published in issue 66 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-26 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nicolas Vandeput Title: Review of Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting Abstract: Vandeput briefly reviews the 2nd edition of this book. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 27-27 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nikolaos Kourentzes Title: Toward a One-Number Forecast: Cross-Temporal Hierarchies Abstract: The 2022:Q2 issue of Foresight included an article by Simon Clarke entitled "One- Number Forecasting: A Solution for Silo Behavior?" Simon argued in his paper that while the goal of achieving consensus on the forecasts is laudable, forcing consensus through the forecasting process is counterproductive, glossing over the reality that forecasts serve different purposes within organizations, require different horizons, and demand different types of data. There are, in short, better ways to reconcile diverse forecasts. Nikos Kourentzes agrees and offers a comprehensive perspective for doing so: that is, for achieving consensus while enabling individual forecasts across the organization. The challenge, he argues, is creating a unified view of the product hierarchy from which various functional forecasts can be derived in a coherent way. The unified view requires reconciliation not merely across products and locations in a hierarchy, but over time buckets as well; e.g., weekly to monthly. The key construct that we're seeking is the cross-temporal hierarchy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-38 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:32-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: Commentary on "Toward a One-Number Forecast": The Software Gap Abstract: Clarke responds to a commentary by Nikolaos Kourentzes on Clarke's article published in issue 65 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-39 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nikolaos Kourentzes Title: Reply to Simon Clarke Commentary Abstract: Kourentzes in turn responds to Simon Clarke's commentary in issue 67 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-40 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shari De Baets Author-Name: Mahdi Abolghasemi Author-name: Sarah Van Der Auweraer Author-Name: Anna Sroginis Author-Name: Michael Chojnowski Title: The IIF Forecasting Impact Podcast Abstract: The authors write extensively about the monthly forecast podcast established recently: how it started and how it's going. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 41-47 Issue: 67 Volume: Year: 2022 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:67:p:41-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Johann Robette Title: Does Improved Forecast Accuracy Translate to Business Value? Abstract: In this lead article of our special feature section, Johann Robette offers a novel way to test the common belief that improved forecast accuracy delivers monetary value to the business, which of course is the very motivation for accuracy-improvement efforts. His approach utilizes a value-oriented simulation that mimics a real-world decision-making process and generates data that permit measurement of both forecast accuracy and the monetary costs and revenues from replenishment decisions. He then explores the linkage between accuracy and monetary value using augmented data from the M5 competition. His experiment demonstrates that better accuracy does not guarantee added value and, at worst, it could destroy value. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-19 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:12-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Using Simulation to Determine When Forecast Accuracy Matters Abstract: Organizations may spend millions on systems, processes, and staffing to improve forecast accuracy - on the assumption that improved accuracy delivers improved business performance. But bottom-line business payoff is not guaranteed. Stephen Kolassa argues that whether accuracy matters can only be assessed in the context of the business decision the forecast is used for. He provides a simulation framework that organizations can use to evaluate the accuracy / business value relationship in the context of their own operations. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-24 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:20-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Arnoud P. Wellens Author-Name: Robert N. Boute Author-Name: Maximiliano Udenio Title: Increased Bullwhip in Retail: A Side Effect of Improving Forecast Accuracy with More Data? Abstract: Can there be side effects of improved forecast accuracy? In this study of the Belgian food retailer Colruyt Group, the authors show how adding explanatory variables (such as promotions, weather forecasts, national events, etc.) increases forecast accuracy compared to methods using only historical sales data. Furthermore, when using these sales forecasts to determine inventory levels and order decisions in a numerical experiment, we see that these more accurate forecasts require less inventory to maintain a target service level, indicating that more accurate predictions may reduce stockouts and operational costs related to high inventories. These are expected findings. The authors also found the use of explanatory variables make the sales forecasts (and consequently the replenishment) more responsive towards changes in customer demand patterns. This creates a higher bullwhip effect regarding the variability of the supermarket's replenishment orders - a less desirable outcome of more accurate forecasting using explanatory variables. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 25-30 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:25-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Measuring the Cost of Forecast Error Abstract: Based on 20 years in business finance trying to model the impact of decisions, Steve Morlidge explores the formidable complexities involved in calculating the cost of forecast error. Rather than explicitly measuring costs, he proposes a proxy for cost based on relevant features of forecast error such as bias and avoidable error. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-35 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:31-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Boylan Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Title: Why Does Forecast Accuracy Matter? Abstract: Boylan and Syntetos build upon their 2006 Foresight article on accuracy and accuracy-implication metrics. They urge us to think about the concept of "performance" more deeply and to examine organizational performance metrics for their appropriateness. When organizational performance declines, they define a four-step process for diagnosing whether forecast accuracy is the problem. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-39 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:36-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Evangelos Theodorou Author-Name: Evangelos Spilioti Title: Better Forecasts or More Appropriate Stock Control Policies? Abstract: Should we focus our efforts on forecast accuracy or on improving our inventory policies? This question is addressed by Theodorou and Spiliotis through a simulation using retail data from the M5 competition. They find that while forecast accuracy improvements will generally lead to lower inventory costs (at least with this test data), optimizing the inventory policy can result in even greater benefits. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-44 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:40-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sinisa Vukovic Title: Accuracy and Usefulness in Applied Forecasting Abstract: In this brief reflection on the "usefulness" of a forecast in the business environment, new Foresight contributor Sinisa Vukovic exposes several issues faced by the analyst when delivering forecasts to management. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-46 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:45-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Patrick Bower Title: Why Do We Talk about Forecast Accuracy Measures (So Much)? Abstract: Excerpt: "To my mind, error measurement is most useful for generating simple exceptions. A basic heat map or listing of worst-case forecast error - at either the item or product-family level - is invaluable in helping me focus on what SKUs I should be examining in more detail or discussing with sales or marketing colleagues to obtain more insight." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 50-51 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:50-51 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: A New Approach to Business Planning during Crises Abstract: Distributed data refers to information that flows from different sources and possibly different owners. Getting top value from distributed data requires a paradigm shift towards collaborative forecasting. Alternative frameworks exist to support collaborative forecasting, from collaborative analytics to data markets, and from analytics markets to prediction markets. While we should accept that not all data will be openly shared, rethinking forecasting processes with modern communication, distributed computation, and a market component could yield substantial improvements in forecast quality while unleashing new business models. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 52-56 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:52-56 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vaishal Patel Author-Name: George Monokroussos Author-Name: Jason Chen Title: Commentary on "A New Approach to Business Planning during Crises" Abstract: The authors describe a similar system they integrated at Wayfair during the pandemic. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 57-59 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:57-59 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Interviewer Title: Spotlight: Oyebimpe Adeniji Abstract: Adeniji speaks about a conference and workshop he is organizing in Nigeria and his connection with the IIF. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 60-60 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:60 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Interviewer Title: Spotlight: Anne-Flore Elard Abstract: Elard talks about her career in forecasting and connection with the IIF. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 61-61 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:61 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Clarke Title: Business Forecasting: Issues, Current State, and Future Direction Abstract: This op-ed originally appeared in Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning; Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo; Copyright (c) 2021 Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo. Reprinted with permission of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 62-64 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:62-64 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: Minitutorial: Forecast Value Added Abstract: A short discussion and lesson on FVA. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 65-65 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:65 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Minitutorial: The Pinball Loss for Quantile Forecasts Abstract: Kolassa writes about the usefulness of the pinball loss, "an error measure (or loss function) that has been around at least since Koenker and Bassett (1978) popularized it for quantile regression." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 66-67 Issue: 68 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:68:p:66-67 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Malte Tichy Title: Time to Retire the MAPE Abstract: Although forecasting researchers - and even most practitioners - have recognized the flaws in MAPE for many years, it remains a popular metric for reporting forecasting performance. This is largely because of its interpretability: MAPE is easy to understand by the business managers and executives who make decisions based on forecasts. But as more forecasting is done with small, intermittent quantities on a disaggregated level (such as product/location/day in retail), MAPE has become more and more problematic. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-12 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:5-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Commentary: How We Deal with Zero Actuals Has a Huge Impact on the MAPE and Optimal Forecasts Abstract: Kolassa comments on Tichy's feature article, "Is It Time to Retire the MAPE?" His position is "Although the shortcomings of the MAPE have been known for a long time, the consequences of these shortcomings are becoming more and more serious because of the way forecasting is evolving." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-16 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:13-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Flavio von Rickenbach Title: Commentary: MAPE, What Else? Abstract: Commentary on the feature article about the usefulness of the MAPE. Should it be retired now? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-19 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:17-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Should We Always Use Forecasts when Facing the Future? Abstract: Goodwin defines a forecast and questions whether we should always make one. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-22 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:20-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Title: Commentary: To Forecast or Not to Forecast? Abstract: Petropoulos comments on Paul Goodwin's article about making forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 23-24 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:23-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Commentary: When to Be Careful about Forecasting Abstract: Kolassa continues the discussion of Are there any times we should NOT forecast? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 25-27 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:25-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Argiris Mokios Title: There Is More Uncertainty than Just Demand Abstract: Mokios's article is the first of three commentaries to address the feature topic in Issue 68 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28-29 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:28-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nico Sprotti Title: Supply Chain Forecasting - Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze? Abstract: Sprotti's article addresses topics relevant to the feature article in Issue 68 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-31 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:30-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefan De Kok Title: You Think You're Measuring Accuracy? Abstract: De Kok's article is the third commentary to address the feature topic in Issue 68 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-33 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:32-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Patrick Bower Title: Be Kind Abstract: Bower's message is part of the Practitioner's Corner of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-35 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:34-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marcin Klucznik Author-Name: Jakub Rybacki Title: Policy Predictability: The Case of Forward Guidance by Central Banks Abstract: Foresight's 2023:Q1 special feature asked, "Does forecast accuracy even matter?" The authors expand this question to whether policy predictability matters, focusing on the case of "forward guidance" as provided by central banks. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-42 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:39-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hua Xie Author-Name: Claudia Ringler Title: Long-term Projections of Water Supply and Demand Abstract: In Foresight's issue 66, research scientists from IFPRI provided an overview of the issues and methods in long-term projections of food production and demand. Now, Hua Xie and Claudia Ringler, also from IFPRI, describe efforts on long-term projections of water supply and demand. While early research focused on understanding future availability of water resources and the global water cycle (the supply side), attention has now shifted toward projections of future water demand. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-47 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:43-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jente Van Belle Author-Name: Ruben Crevits Author-Name: Wouter Verbeke Title: Reducing Forecast Instability with Global Deep Learning Models Abstract: Based on their research published in the International Journal of Forecasting, the authors provide the takeaways that will be of most use to forecasting practitioners. Their approach shows how to reduce forecast instability with global deep learning models without necessarily harming forecast accuracy. This is important for business forecasters, since more stable demand forecasts lead to fewer (and smaller) supply chain plan changes and thus lower supply chain costs. Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 49-55 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:49-55 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Spotlight: Elaine Deschamps Abstract: Deschamps is interviewed about her career, research interests, and involvement with the IIF and ISF. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 56-57 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:56-57 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Spotlight: Niles Perera Abstract: Perera is interviewed about his academic and career background, research interests, current projects, and involvement with the IIF and ISF. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 58-58 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:58 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: How to Increase Forecast Accuracy Abstract: Kolassa's Opinion-Editorial focuses on increasing forecast accuracy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 59-60 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:59-60 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spyros Makridakis Author-name: Fotios Petropoulos Author-Name: Yanfei Kang Title: The Impact of Large Language Models like ChatGPT on Forecasting Abstract: The authors speculate about how forecasting will be affected by the greater use of Large Language Models. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 61-62 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:61-62 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gordon Reikard Title: Comparing Artificial Intelligence and Nonlinear Regression Models: The Issue of Test Design Abstract: The author writes about the importance of test design in connection with machine learning models. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 64-65 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:64-65 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: How Overfitting Destroys Forecast Quality Abstract: A minitutorial by Steve Morlidge, reprinted from his work The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 66-66 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:66 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: RAE Measures Value Added and Allows for Forecastability Abstract: A minitutorial by Steve Morlidge, reprinted from his work The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 67-67 Issue: 69 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:69:p:67 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christoph Bergmeir Title: Common Pitfalls and Better Practices in Forecast Evaluation for Data Scientists Abstract: Nowadays, forecasting is often performed by data scientists with no specialized forecasting training. Such forecasters may be unaware of many pitfalls in forecast evaluation, leading to the improper evaluation we find in numerous papers published in the machine learning literature. Christoph Bergmeir explores forecast evaluation pitfalls and offers better practices to avoid them. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-12 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:5-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zeynep Erkin Baz Title: Commentary: A Practitioner's View on the Common Pitfalls Abstract: Baz comments on points made in Foresight's article in issue 70, Common Pitfalls and Better Practices in Forecast Evaluation for Data Scientists, by Bergmeir. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-14 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:13-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shari De Baets Title: Commentary: Idealism - Make Way for Realism Abstract: A second commentary by De Baets on the article, Common Pitfalls and Better Practices in Forecast Evaluation for Data Scientists, by Bergmeir Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-16 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:15-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Huijing Chen Author-Name: John Boylan Author-Name: Ivan Svetunkov Title: Cross-Learning with Short Seasonal Time Series Abstract: Since its introduction by R. G. Brown over 60 years ago, exponential smoothing, in its various flavors, has been a go-to model for many forecasting professionals. Thanks to its solid performance across 40 years of M competitions, exponential smoothing has earned a secure place in the forecaster's toolbox. The familiar Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS) taxonomy by Hyndman and colleagues helps define how components of a time series interact with each other, and this new research by Chen, Boylan, and Svetunkov provides an enhanced taxonomy that can aid in cross-learning from similar time series with very short histories. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 17-23 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:17-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefan de Kok Title: Commentary: PICS, or, Why Stop at PIC? Abstract: De Kok comments on the article Short Seasonal Time Series in issue 70 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-25 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:24-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Malvina Marchese Title: Commentary: Exponential Smoothing in the Spotlight Again Abstract: A second commentary, by Marchese, on the article, Short Seasonal Time Series, by Chen, Boylan, and Svetunkov in issue 70 of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-27 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:26-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: The Limitations of Forecasts and Plans on Decision Making Abstract: Commentary on 2023:Q1 Special Feature, Does Forecast Accuracy Even Matter? Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28-30 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:28-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elaine Deschamps Title: The Organizational Politics of Forecasting Revisited: Collaborative Budget Forecasting Meets the COVID-19 Pandemic Abstract: In 2005, Elaine Deschamps organized a special feature for Foresight on the Organizational Politics of Forecasting, focusing her lead article on the steps to overcome bias in the forecast process. Now, 18 years later, Elaine revisits her earlier guidance, adding the key learnings from three years of disruption by the COVID-19 pandemic. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-37 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:31-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sara Barradas Title: Book Review of Change & Chance Embraced and Four P's in a Pod, by Hans Levenbach Abstract: Barradas covers the main topics of both texts by Levenbach and concludes, "Whether you are a practicing forecaster or a student learning about demand forecasting to become a productive professional, these two books are a great resource." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-42 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:40-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Book Review of Demand Forecasting Best Practices by Nicolas Vandeput Abstract: Kolassa pronounces this "a superb book that should be on the (virtual or wooden) bookshelf of any demand forecaster or planner. It collects . . . hard-won lessons and is brimming with sage and immediately practical advice." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 43-44 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:43-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Book Review of Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends that Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them, by Nouriel Roubini Abstract: "Buckle Your Seatbelt, it's going to be a bumpy ride. . . We should pay heed to Roubini and others like him who have the ability and expertise to identify, clearly explain, and forge the connections between the major threats facing the world's eight billion people over the next two to three decades." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-48 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:45-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Patrick Bower Author-Name: Chip Gretok Title: The 10 Lies Told in Consensus Meetings Abstract: The authors, with many years of experience in supply chain management, list the "tall tales and outright fabrications" they have heard from those seeking to boost a forecast. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 49-52 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:49-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Igor Gusakov Title: What Is Wrong with Demand Planning Software? Abstract: The software market has many options for demand forecasting and planning. Some offerings are for forecasting only, while others provide a broader planning infrastructure. Price can also vary considerably - from free to millions of dollars in licensing, implementation, and maintenance/renewal fees. But while software always has a scope and purpose, how often is the purpose achieved? How often do customers use the software as its developers intended? Coming from a vendor of demand planning software and consulting services, with prior experience in CPG, Igor Gusakov asks these questions and more, and seeks to start a discussion on this topic. This article is the starting point for a special feature section on "The Current State and Future Direction of Forecasting Software," which will appear in the 2023:Q4 issue. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 53-55 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:53-55 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Spotlight: Mark Chockalingam Abstract: Chockalingam answers questions about his activities in forecasting and special interests. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 56-57 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:56-57 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Spotlight: Malvina Marchese Abstract: Marchese is introduced to readers and answers questions about her positions in forecasting and special interests and projects. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 58-59 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:58-59 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thanos Goltsos Author-Name: Aris Syntetos Title: Forecasting: A Critical Enabler of the Circular Economy Abstract: The authors express their opinions of the importance of forecasting in the circular economy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 60-61 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:60-61 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: All Hail the Flatline Forecast! Abstract: "For some reason, people are much more relaxed if the forecast wiggles a bit at the beginning, even if it then goes flat." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 62-63 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:62-63 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Malte Tichy Title: The Technological Limits to Forecasting Abstract: One of three opinion editorials in issue 70. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 64-65 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:64-65 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lawrence Vanston Title: Minitutorial: Forecasting New Product Adoption Using S-Curves Abstract: Lawrence Vanston provides an infographic on using S-curves for forecasting new product adoption. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 66-67 Issue: 70 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:70:p:66-67 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: 20 Years of FVA: A Critical Retrospective Abstract: Forecast Value Added (FVA) is a familiar framework for evaluating an organization's forecasting performance. While traditional metrics measure the accuracy or bias achieved by a forecasting process, FVA instead examines the process steps and participants that deliver the achieved performance. FVA's purpose is to identify waste in a forecasting process - activities that are failing to improve accuracy or reduce bias. By eliminating the non-value adding activities, a forecasting process will consume fewer resources, yet can maintain (or improve) its levels of accuracy and bias. In this Special Feature we take a critical look at FVA, with six articles from consultants, researchers, and industry practitioners sharing their perspectives on FVA benefits, enhancements, and challenges. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-17 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:10-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jeff Baker Title: Enhancements to the Forecast Value Added Framework Abstract: FVA is a simple yet powerful tool to improve the quality of forecasts, which are a key input for many critical supply chain management decisions. Unfortunately, FVA has its weaknesses too. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-24 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:18-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefan de Kok Title: A Critical Review of Forecast Value Added Abstract: With the clarity of hindsight, I will suggest three critical improvements concerning 1.the formula used, 2.the choice of underlying error metric, and 3. segmentation of different error behaviors. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 25-27 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:25-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fazlur Rahman Title: Two Process Changes Based on FVA Findings Abstract: Our practices at Kraft Heinz have led to the discovery of two ways the Forecast Value Added (FVA) framework can be used to improve our forecasting process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28-28 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marina Sologubova Title: The Potential of FVA for Driving Process Improvement Abstract: The Forecast Value Added (FVA) framework provides a powerful approach for benchmarking, allowing a fair assessment of forecasting effectiveness regardless of the level of demand volatility and organization encounters. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-30 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:29-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Fildes Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Author-Name: Shari De Baets Title: Judgmental Adjustments in Demand Planning: Their Motivation and Success Abstract: Judgmental adjustments to computer-based forecasts remain very common, but they should be approached with caution. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-37 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:31-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anne-Flore Elard Title: The Effective Use of External Signals and Human Inputs Abstract: The anticipation of disruptive events is a major challenge for current and future forecasting. Two processes may be helpful in this regard. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-41 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:40-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Johann Robette Title: The Need for Risk Management in Forecasting Software Abstract: As organizations make thousands of forecast-based decisions every day, itis critical to prioritize which ones need a thorough review and which ones do not. But how do you score and rank the criticality level of each decision? The answer lies in risk management, a crucial capability that unfortunately remains absent from most forecast-based software. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-47 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:42-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gareth Thomas Title: Entering the Golden Age of Mixed Frequency Forecasting Abstract: Forecasting software development is currently on two trajectories: Implementing mixed data sampling approaches in a broad range of models and Democratization - allowing forecasters using different languages to actively work together. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 48-49 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:48-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Spiros Potamitis Author-Name: Michele Trovero Author-Name: Joe Katz Title: A Glimpse into the Future of Forecasting Software Abstract: With the ongoing advancements in technology and driven by market demands, forecasting software is anticipated to undergo further refinement, offering increased sophistication and flexibility while simultaneously becoming more user-friendly and intuitive. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 50-54 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:50-54 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michele Trovero Author-Name: Spiros Potamitis Title: How Will Generative AI Influence Forecasting Software? Abstract: Forecasting software can benefit from LLMs in enhanced code generation, improved user interfaces, intelligent suggestions, better interpretability, and increased automation. Possibly driven by regulations, the application of AI in FSSs will require heightened attention to the ethical use of models and data. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 55-61 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:55-61 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Oliver Schaer Author-Name: Ivan Svetunkov Author-Name: Robert Fildes Title: What Do We Learn from Forecasting Software Surveys? Abstract: The authors describe software of the early years, the middle years and the software of today. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 62-65 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:62-65 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Fildes Title: Book Review- Escape from Model Land by Erica Thompson Abstract: "Yes, you should read Erica Thompson's Escape from Model Land. It's informative and a fun read, but it's not a conventional forecasting book." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 66-68 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:66-68 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: George Karamatzanis Author-Name: Kostas Nikolopoulos Title: The Scientific Method: A Guide to Finding Useful Knowledge by J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green Abstract: Credibility and rigorous approaches to arrive at useful knowledge are critical. Given the vast amount of information available and the increasing amount of 'fake news,' scientific practice is vital to finding and disseminating helpful knowledge, making the topic of this book of paramount importance. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 69-70 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:69-70 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Interviewer Title: Spotlight: Shari De Baets Abstract: DeBaets speaks about her academic career and background and how she got involved with the IIF and Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 71-72 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:71-72 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Interviewer Title: Spotlight: Joe McConnell Abstract: McConnell speaks about his background and career, current position, and research interests, and tells how he became associated with the IIF and Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 73-74 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:73-74 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Sustainability in Forecasting Abstract: What does forecasting - especially demand forecasting - have to do with sustainability? There are at least four aspects to this relationship, not all of which are consciously present to forecasters (or to those who use forecasts and employ forecasters). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 75-76 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:75-76 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Forecasts for Infrastructure -A Crisis Confronting the Economy Abstract: Today the U.S. is plagued by aging, poorly maintained, and failing physical and social infrastructure, and a digital infrastructure increasingly vulnerable to cyberattack. Assessing the status of national infrastructure and forecasting future needs are critical issues confronting the economy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2023 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 77-79 Issue: 71 Volume: Year: 2023 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2023:i:71:p:77-79 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kesten C. Green Title: J. Scott Armstrong (1937 - 2023): Iconoclast and Champion of Science for Practical Purposes Abstract: Green's memorial tribute to Armstrong, one of the founders of the IIF Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andreas Graefe Title: Lessons from a Mentor and Friend Abstract: Graefe's tribute to his mentor and friend, J. Scott Armstrong Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-8 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:8-8 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Arch Woodside Title: Scott Armstrong's Scientific Legacy Abstract: Tribute to J. Scott Armstrong. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 9-9 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:9-9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Malte Tichy Title: The Forecaster's Evaluation Dilemma Abstract: It is common to find that extremely high actual values have been under-forecast, while extremely low actual values were over-forecast. However, as Malte Tichy points out, this ostensible forecast bias is not intrinsic to the forecast but is induced by the way the data have been evaluated (taking a "backward look" from actuals to forecasts). Tichy argues that such flawed evaluation procedures create an incentive to provide dishonest forecasts and shows how to avoid this forecaster's evaluation dilemma. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 10-14 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:10-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ville A. Satop?? Title: Combining Probability Predictions Abstract: Considerable evidence supports the practice of combining point forecasts - that the combination is typically more accurate than any of the individual forecasts. There is similar opportunity for improvement when combining probabilistic forecasts, but how should this be done? Pulling the key takeaways from his research published in the International Journal of Forecasting, Ville Satop?? shows us the ways of combining probabilistic predictions. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-20 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:15-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shaun Comfort Title: Estimating Predictive Probability of Success Abstract: This article illustrates how Kahneman-Tversky's (KT) original reference class forecasting (RCF) for calibrating subjective forecasts can be reformulated using the language of Bayesian inference. Shaun Comfort shows a simple implementation for estimating the probability of success for Bernoulli outcomes such as clinical trials, contract bids, and medical devices. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-28 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:21-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Accuracy vs. Runtime with Multiple Seasonalities Abstract: While forecasters are naturally tuned to pursue accuracy, that accuracy always comes with a cost. As we saw in the M4 results and elsewhere, the most accurate methods may be orders of magnitude higher in cost than marginally less accurate methods. In this article, Stephan Kolassa describes several methods for handling multiple levels of seasonality within a time series, and considers the tradeoff between forecast accuracy and the cost of producing the most accurate forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 29-32 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:29-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ken Fordyce Title: Linear Regression with a Time Series View, Part 1: Simple Linear Regression Abstract: The author's main topics are The Crossroads, Historical Overview, and Basics of Simple Linear Regression. Part 2 will follow in the next issue. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 35-39 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:35-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Igor Grossmann Author-Name: Christoph Bergmeir Author-Name: Peter Slattery Title: How Well Can Social Scientists Forecast Societal Change? Abstract: In comprehensive research involving large-scale studies and a major forecasting competition in the social sciences, Igor Grossmann and his teams and co-authors have investigated the question of how well social scientists can predict societal change. They found that, in general, social scientists are not able to forecast better than laypeople or simple statistical benchmarks, and suggest better awareness and training in forecasting for social scientists. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-46 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:40-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: A Case for a More Decision-centric IBP Abstract: In his previous Foresight article (Issue 70), Niels van Hove wrote that although Integrated Business Planning (IBP) is designed to make high-impact business decisions, little attention has been given to the quality of decisions in an IBP cycle. In this article, he argues that to continuously learn from and improve IBP decisions, decision processes ought to be integrated with the traditional IBP process and supported by Decision Intelligence technology that goes beyond existing transactional and planning technology. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 47-51 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:47-51 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lorien Pratt Author-Name: David Roberts Author-Name: Nadine Malcolm Author-Name: Brian Fisher Author-Name: Katie Barnhill Author-Name: Daniela Jones Author-Name: Michael Kudenov Title: How Decision Intelligence Integrates Forecasting, AI, and Data into Complex Decisions Abstract: Decision Intelligence is the culmination of a variety of established and emerging disciplines that, when integrated, improve decision making. To support and improve high impact decisions, Lorien Pratt and colleagues introduce the Causal Decision Diagram (CDD) as a generalized multidisciplinary integration framework. The authors share a detailed use case in the agricultural industry, which demonstrates this framework's value for forecasters and, in return, the prominent role forecasters can play in contributing to decision intelligence using CDDs. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 52-57 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:52-57 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Patrick Bower Title: Book Review: Sales & Operations Planning -An Executive Update by Robert A. Stahl Abstract: The book is organized into two distinct parts. The first is a discussion of the human side of S&OP, while the second is a bit more of a traditional discussion in process-step format. Bob Stahl's clear and accessible writing style and decades of experience make this a must read. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 58-59 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:58-59 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Book Review: Power and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence, by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb Abstract: Get Ready and Get Set, because Here Comes AI. There should be unalloyed interest by readers of Foresight in a tool that promises to provide better predictions and, as a result, better decisions (at lower cost). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 60-63 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:60-63 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Spavound Title: Book Review: Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals, by Stephan Kolassa, Bahman Rostami-Tabar, and Enno Siemsen Abstract: With this volume, the well-seasoned authors seek to impart some of their hard-won experience to new forecasters. Over the course of 22 relatively short chapters, the authors provide a concise introduction to a wide variety of topics that someone entering the field would find useful. Organized into six broad sections - Introduction, Forecasting Basics, Forecasting Models, Forecasting Quality, Forecasting Organization, and Learning More - each is accompanied by useful examples and straightforward explanations, and every chapter ends with key takeaways. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 64-65 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:64-65 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Spotlight: Interview with Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi Abstract: Sevvandi answers questions about her background in forecasting, present position, research interests, and involvement with the IIF and Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 66-67 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:66-67 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Spotlight: Interview with Ruben Crevits Abstract: Crevits answers questions about his academic background, research interests, and connections with the IIF and Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 68 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:68 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Charles Chase Author-Name: Kenneth B. Kahn Title: In Pursuit of Consumption-Based Forecasting Abstract: Companies pursuing CBF utilize even more advanced capabilities to capture, examine, and understand 'true' demand and combine market planning, operational planning, and forecasting. These capabilities include the areas of analytics, data, people, process, and technology. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 69-71 Issue: 72 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:69-71 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Morlidge Title: Failing to Pay Attention to Error: Our Greatest Error Abstract: Morlidges's farewell retrospective as he leaves the Foresight Advisory Board; he recounts his contributions to Foresight, and reflects on his interactions with the academic, software, and practitioner communities. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-12 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:5-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Conor Doherty Title: A Critical Evaluation of the Assumptions of Forecast Value Added Abstract: Doherty evaluates the assumptions underlying FVA. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 13-23 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:13-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jeff Baker Title: Commentary: FVA: The Gold Standard for Collaborative Forecasting Abstract: Baker provides a commentary on Conor Doherty's article "A Critical Evaluation of the Assumptions of Forecast Value Added." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-25 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:24-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefan de Kok Title: Commentary: Using FVA the Right Way Abstract: De Kok provides a commentary on Conor Doherty's article "A Critical Evaluation of the Assumptions of Forecast Value Added." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-27 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:26-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Igor Gusakov Title: Commentary: Apologia pro Forecast Value Added Abstract: Gusakov provides a commentary on Conor Doherty's article "A Critical Evaluation of the Assumptions of Forecast Value Added." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28-29 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:28-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marina Sologubova Title: Commentary: FVA Remains Relevant and Valuable Abstract: Sologubova provides a commentary on Conor Doherty's article "A Critical Evaluation of the Assumptions of Forecast Value Added." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-30 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:30-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nicolas Vandeput Title: Commentary: How to Properly Leverage FVA Abstract: Vandeput provides a commentary on Conor Doherty's article "A Critical Evaluation of the Assumptions of Forecast Value Added." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 31-32 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:31-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christoph Bergmeir Title: LLMs and Foundational Models: Not (Yet) as Good as Hoped Abstract: Bergmeir examines the current state and future prospects of LLMs and foundational time series models. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 33-38 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:33-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ken Fordyce Title: Fordyce discusses multiple linear regression in Part 2 of his tutorial series "Linear Regression with a Time Series View." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 39-45 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:39-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas Wolfram Title: The Accuracy of Prediction Markets Abstract: Wolfram follows up his Issue 54 article on corporate prediction markets (PMs) with a new analysis of PM accuracy utilizing large datasets from the IARPA project. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 48-53 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:48-53 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Fildes Title: Book Review: Judgment in Predictive Analytics, edited by Matthias Seifert Abstract: Fildes reviews Judgment in Predictive Analytics edited by Matthias Seifert. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 54-57 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:54-57 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Book Review: The Age of Prediction: Algorithms, AI, and the Shifting Shadows of Risk by Igor Tulchinsky and Christopher E. Mason Abstract: Sohn reviews Igor Tulchinsky and Christopher E. Mason's The Age of Prediction. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 58-60 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:58-60 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Spotlight: Interview with Eric Stellwagen Abstract: Stellwagen talks about his forecasting background, software development, involvement with the IIF and Foresight, and hobbies. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 61-62 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:61-62 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Interactions in Forecasting Abstract: Kolassa provides a minitutorial on interactions in forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 63-64 Issue: 73 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:73:p:63-64 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bahman Rostami-Tabar Author-Name: Michael Gilliland Title: Alliance or Apathy? Forecasting's Role in Achieving the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals Abstract: Rostami-Tabar and Gilliland's preview to a special feature that will appear in Foresight in 2025 that looks at how forecasting will support the goals the United Nations outlined in its 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-6 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:5-6 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Malte Tichy Title: Scaling-Aware Forecast Rating Abstract: Tichy shares a novel approach to assessing forecast quality with an emphasis on the importance of an item's sales velocity since slow-movers naturally come with larger relative error than fast-movers. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 7-11 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:7-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefan de Kok Title: Commentary: A Good Correction for Forecastability Abstract: Commentary on "Forecasting Performance Objectives: Scaling-Aware Forecast Rating." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 12-13 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:12-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tim Januschowski Title: Commentary: A Major Milestone for Forecast Accuracy Summarization Abstract: Commentary on "Forecasting Performance Objectives: Scaling-Aware Forecast Rating." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-15 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:14-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zabiulla Mohammed Title: Commentary: The Scaling Trap in Retail Forecasting Abstract: Commentary on "Forecasting Performance Objectives: Scaling-Aware Forecast Rating." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 16-17 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:16-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Patrick Bower Title: How Do I Set Forecast Accuracy Expectations? Abstract: Bower shares his experience setting accuracy expectations from the practitioner perspective. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-19 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:18-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Information that Can Damage Your Demand Forecasts Abstract: Goodwin discusses how certain factors can bias a forecast and lessen accuracy, and he provides a possible solution: restricting the information provided by forecasting software. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 20-22 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:20-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Johann Robette Title: Forecast Desirability: Is Better the Enemy of Good? Abstract: Robette shows how Ceiling Analysis lets forecasters assess their portfolio from the perspective of business value, then determine whether further accuracy enhancements are worthwhile. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-29 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:24-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ivan Svetunkov Title: Point Forecast Evaluation: State of the Art Abstract: Svetunkov reviews the alternatives to point forecast evaluation. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 30-35 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:30-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ken Fordyce Title: Linear Regression with a Time Series View Part 3: Qualitative Predictor Variables Abstract: Fordyce discusses multiple linear regression in Part 3 of his tutorial series "Linear Regression with a Time Series View." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 36-41 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:36-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roger Moser Title: Decision Intelligence: A Critical Reflection Abstract: Moser provides guidance for applying DI's data-to-action process to improve decision making. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 42-44 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:42-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Foresight Staff Title: Spotlight: Interview with Marina Sologubova Abstract: Sologubova, Senior Director overseeing APAC Demand Planning and IBP at Estee Lauder, talks about her forecasting background, her current leadership role, involvement with the IIF and Foresight, and how she spends her free time. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 45-46 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:45-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van Hove Title: A Planner-centric Approach to Judgmental Forecasting Abstract: In his op-ed, Niels van Hove argues for the use of human-centric design when developing processes and systems, particularly for judgmental forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 47-48 Issue: 74 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q3 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:74:p:47-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hossein Hassani Author-Name: Emmanuel Sirimal Silva Title: Large Language Models as Benchmarks in Forecasting Practice Abstract: This special feature explores large language models (LLMs) as potential benchmarks in forecasting practice. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-10 Issue: 75 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:75:p:5-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: LLMs, Data Leakage, Bullshit, and Botshit Abstract: Kolassa exposes the untrustworthiness of large language model forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 11-16 Issue: 75 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:75:p:11-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christoph Bergmeir Title: Commentary: Can LLMs Provide Good Forecasts? Abstract: Bergmeir provides a commentary questioning whether large language models can provide good forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 18-20 Issue: 75 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:75:p:18-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Malte Tichy Title: Reply to the Commentaries: A Plea for the Ranked Probability Score Abstract: Tichy provided Issue 74's lead article "Forecasting Performance Objectives: Scaling-Aware Forecast Rating," noting the unavoidable velocity-dependence of forecast accuracy evaluation, which was followed by three commentaries. In this issue, Malte replies to the commentaries with a plea to use the Ranked Probability Score to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-23 Issue: 75 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:75:p:21-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kevin F. Forbes Title: Unethical Behavior in Forecast Accuracy Evaluation Abstract: Forbes points out a fundamental flaw in the way renewable energy forecasters calculate forecast error metrics: the practice of creating an "illusion of predictability." Forbes argues misleading forecast evaluation not only tarnishes forecasters' reputations; it can imperil the world's critical transition to renewable energy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 24-31 Issue: 75 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:75:p:24-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Matthew J. Schneider Author-Name: Jethro Browell Author-Name: Rufus Rankin Title: Limiting Extreme Behavior in Forecasting Competitions Abstract: The article explores restructuring incentives to limit extreme behavior during forecasting competitions. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 32-37 Issue: 75 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:75:p:32-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ken Fordyce Title: Linear Regression with a Time Series View Part 4: Logistic Regression for Binary Outcomes Abstract: Fordyce discusses logistic regression for binary outcomes in Part 4 of his tutorial series "Linear Regression with a Time Series View." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 38-43 Issue: 75 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:75:p:38-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ira Sohn Title: Review: Global Energy Outlook 2024: Peaks or Plateaus? by Daniel Raimi, Yuqi Zhu, Richard G. Newell, and Brian C. Prest Abstract: Sohn reviews a report by the research institution Resources for the Future (by Daniel Raimi, Yuqi Zhu, Richard G. Newell, and Brian C. Preston) on the 2024 global energy outlook. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-46 Issue: 75 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:75:p:44-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: The Brier Score and Its Decomposition Abstract: Kolassa gives a minitutorial on the Brier Score and its decomposition. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 47-48 Issue: 75 Volume: Year: 2024 Month: Q4 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:75:p:47-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christian Schaefer Title: Strategic Forecasting in Biopharma: Preview of Special Feature Abstract: Preview of six articles covering many unique aspects of strategic forecasting in biopharma. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-5 Issue: 76 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:5-5 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Charles Persinger Author-Name: Jay Andersen Title: Probability Assessments to Support Portfolio Management at Eli Lilly Abstract: Authors describe Eli Lilly's approach and the evaluation of 26 years of probability assessments. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 6-14 Issue: 76 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:6-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Clarke Patrone Author-Name: Jaseem Mahmmdla Author-Name: Roshan Seth Author-Name: Gayathri Devi Raghupathy Title: Neural Network Models to Predict Clinical Trial Completion Abstract: Clinical trials often face severe delays contributing to costs and inefficiencies in bringing the drug to the market. To address this problem, the authors describe a neural network-based model to predict the primary completion date (PCD) of a clinical trial. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 15-20 Issue: 76 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:15-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nicholas Guthrie Title: The Impact of Events and Order of Entry Abstract: Guthrie illustrates the concepts of events and order of entry using a recent example of a new class of treatment. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 21-27 Issue: 76 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:21-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gary Johnson Title: Forecasting the Uptake of Gene Therapies Abstract: Gene therapies are a technical novelty, with some unusual features that make them an interesting forecasting challenge. Also, gene therapies are generally administered just once, creating unusual dynamics for the forecaster. To address these challenges, Johnson demonstrates the use of a Markov chain stock and flow model for forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 28-33 Issue: 76 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:28-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert F. Siegmund Title: Long-Term Product Forecasting in Pharmaceuticals Abstract: Pharmaceutical long-term forecasting employs methods that may be unfamiliar to supply chain forecasters in other industries. In this article, Siegmund introduces a structured approach centered on patient-based models where sales projections are derived from detailed analyses of patient numbers, treatment accessibility, and product market share. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-39 Issue: 76 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:34-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Richard Murgatroyd Title: Addressing Bias in Pharmaceutical Pipeline Forecasting Abstract: Due to some unique features of the pharmaceutical industry, epidemiology-based methods are commonly used in forecasting sales revenues for pipeline (i.e., new) products. Murgatroyd discusses the reasons for these potential manipulations and suggests what governance checks should be put in place to guard against them. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 40-46 Issue: 76 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:40-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas Wolfram Title: Prognostication with Unusual Sources Abstract: Gossip is conversation characterized as light and informal, but it can also carry useful information. Wolfram considers AI's use of unusual sources of information for decision making, in particular the handling of gossip. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 47-48 Issue: 76 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:47-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steven Pauly Title: The Insufficiency of Looking at Forecast Accuracy Alone Abstract: In comprehensive research involving large-scale studies and a major forecasting competition in the social sciences, Igor Grossmann and his teams and co-authors have investigated the question of how well social scientists can predict societal change. They found that, in general, social scientists are not able to forecast better than laypeople or simple statistical benchmarks, and suggest better awareness and training in forecasting for social scientists. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 49-50 Issue: 76 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:49-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephan Kolassa Title: Brier Score vs. Log Score Abstract: In a follow-up to his Brier Score mini tutorial in the last issue, Kolassa now compares the Brier Score to the Log Score as alternatives for evaluating probabilistic predictions of binary outcomes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 51-52 Issue: 76 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q1 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:51-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Goodwin Title: Twenty Years On: How Is Forecasting Faring? Abstract: After nearly 20 years on our editorial staff, Paul Goodwin is stepping away from Foresight. As he leaves, Paul has agreed to provide this farewell retrospective on the current state and future direction of forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 5-7 Issue: 77 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:77:p:5-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nicolas Vandeput Title: Learnings from the VN1 Forecasting Competition Abstract: Vandeput shares his key takeaways from the top performers of the VN1 forecasting competition. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 8-13 Issue: 77 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:77:p:8-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: James Taylor Title: Decision Modeling to Increase Forecast Usability Abstract: Taylor proposes a Decision Model and Notation (DMN) approach to align and focus forecast development, and to ensure forecasters understand how their forecasts impact decision making. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 14-18 Issue: 77 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:77:p:14-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fotios Petropoulos Author-Name: Evangelos Spiliotis Title: The Trade-Offs between Forecasting Performance and Computational Cost Abstract: Building upon previous research, Petropoulos and Spiliotis show how forecast computation time can be dramatically reduced without significant impact on forecast accuracy. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 19-24 Issue: 77 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:77:p:19-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Harrison Katz Author-Name: Erica Savage Author-Name: Kai Thomas Brusch Title: Two-Part Forecasting for Time-Shifted Metrics Abstract: Many commercial sectors (such as hospitality) face the challenge of forecasting metrics that span multiple time axes. In this paper, Katz, Savage, and Brusch present a novel two-part forecasting methodology that addresses this challenge by treating the forecasting process as a time-shift operator. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 26-33 Issue: 77 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:77:p:26-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ryan Fattini Author-Name: Ryan Young Title: Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting: Bridging Human Insight and Machine Precision Abstract: The rapid evolution of retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems has profoundly enhanced the capabilities of large language models through a technique known as grounding. Building on these advancements, Fattini and Young introduce a novel application of retrieval-augmented forecasting. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 34-43 Issue: 77 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:77:p:34-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Patrick Bower Title: The Mythical Influence of Metric Asymmetry Abstract: In his opinion-editorial, Bower argues that other factors have much larger influences on forecaster behavior than metric asymmetry. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 44-45 Issue: 77 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:77:p:44-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Leo Sadovy Title: Systems Thinking to Address Sustainability Abstract: In this opinion-editorial, Sadovy advocates a systems thinking approach for forecasters seeking to assist in sustainability challenges. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025 Journal: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Pages: 46-47 Issue: 77 Volume: Year: 2025 Month: Q2 File-URL: https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/ Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:77:p:46-47