Volume 27 Issue 4 (October-December 2011)

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Robust backward population projections made possible

Ediev, D.M.
Pages 1241-1247
Abstract

Based on formal results for population dynamics under varying fertility and mortality levels, this paper presents a new approach to backward population projection. Unlike other methods in the literature, the method presented here is robust and accurate in both the short and long run. The method and the theory behind it contribute to the knowledge about dynamic populations and may find applications in population modeling and reconstruction.

Keywords: Backward population projection , Back projection , Inverse projection , Population dynamics , Ergodic property , Reproductive value , Demographic potential , Dynamically stable population , Historical demography
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.09.008
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