Volume 27 Issue 1 (January-March 2011)

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Group-Based Judgmental Forecasting
edited by George Wright, Gene Rowe

People consultation to construct the future: A Delphi application

Landeta, J. , Barrutia, J.
Pages 134-151
Abstract

This work presents the Delphi method, in its Policy Delphi variant, as an efficient mechanism for carrying out consultations regarding regulatory actions that affect professional bureaucracies, and also, in the last analysis, for forecasting and constructing their future. The Delphi application presented here incorporates some specific characteristics which are aimed at making the plurality of opinions in the organisation under analysis visible, facilitating reasoned debate, minimising the risk of manipulation by study leaders, and maximising the generalised acceptance of the results by the whole collective. This study was performed on the university community of the Basque Country, prior to the enactment of the Act which was to organise the Basque university system. Its results, which were accepted as being representative of the real dissensus existing in the community, constituted a valuable input for the final drawing up of the Act, and for its acceptance without conflict. This Delphi application cannot be classified within its traditional field of exploratory forecasting, but it can be situated within the normative sphere, geared towards the construction of a desired future.

Keywords: Policy Delphi , Dissensus , Relational public administration , Governance , Judgemental forecasting , Professional bureaucracy , Public policy making
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.04.001
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