Volume 9 Issue 1 (April-June 1993)

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Monitoring business conditions at the CIBCR

Cullity, J.P.
Pages 39-48

In 1981, Geoffrey Moore delivered a keynote address to the First International Symposium on Forecasting in which he made comparisons between the monitoring and forecasting approaches to the business cycle. This paper re-examines the subject: in the following ways. (1) It examines the differences and similarities between the two approaches. (2) It provides information about an ex post test of the forecasting usefulness of an early set of leading indicators. (3) It discusses the use of CIBCR leading and coinciding indexes for countries around the world. (4) It examines the accuracy of forecasts of magnitudes of change in real output made with a long-leading index. (5) It looks at the development of a sequential signal system. (6) It comments on the forecasting of Globescope consensus forecasts.

Keywords: Leading index , Coincident index , Six month smoothed , Sequential signals
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