Volume 6 Issue 1 (1990)

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Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts

Bathcelor, R. , Dua, P.
Pages 3-10
Abstract

This paper uses a survey of US economic forecasters to assess the impact of their theories and forecasting methods on the accuracy of their predictions for a number of macroeconomic variables. Forecasters who give more weight to Keynesian ideology and econometric modelling dominate predominantly atheoretical times series forecasters for most variables. Although Keynesianism is the most popular ideology in practice, most forecasters place more weight on judgment than on any formal modelling technique.

Keywords: Economic forecasting , Survey of forecasters , Econometric forecasting , Time series forecasting , Judgmental forecasting
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(90)90093-Q
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