An analogical approach to the long term forecasting of major new product sales

This article shows that new product sales follow a wide variety of diffusion patterns. However, some new products may exhibit diffusions that are characteristic of a particular group of products. If this is so, then the sales of a new product may be unfolding along a predictable path. This hypothesis was tested using sales of color television sets among Western European countries. Forecasts for three-and five-years-ahead were made using just the first four or six years' data. The bases of the projections were pre-forecast simulated estimates of diffusion 'shape'. The results obtained were encouraging. It is shown that the methodology approaches the best achievable using trend-based projections of this kind.