Volume 12 Issue 1 (March-May 1996)
Probability Judgmental Forecasting
edited by G. Wright, M.J. Lawrence, F. Collopy
The role and validity of judgment in forecasting
All forecasting methods involve judgment but forecasting techniques are often dichotomised as judgmental or statistical. Most forecasting research has focused on the development and testing of statistical techniques. However, in practice, human reasoning and judgment play a primary role. Even when statistical methods are used, results are often adjusted in accord with expert judgment (Bunn and Wright 1991). This editorial introduces the papers included in this special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting and places them within a broader research context. The discussion of this context is structured in three sections: judgmental probability forecasting; judgmental time series forecasting; and interaction of judgment and statistical models.