Volume 12 Issue 1 (March-May 1996)

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Probability Judgmental Forecasting
edited by G. Wright, M.J. Lawrence, F. Collopy

Remarks on the application of the analytic hierarchy process to judgmental forecasting

Belton, V. , Goodwin, P.
Pages 155-161
Abstract

The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) has been proposed as a method for improving judgmental forecasts. This paper argues that some applications of the method are ill founded because they involve the inappropriate weighting of the factors which will influence the forecast variable and do not permit the modelling of situations where these factors operate to their fullest extent at the same time. Modifications to the method are proposed.

Keywords: Judgmental forecasting , Decomposition , AHP
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(95)00643-5
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