Volume 22 Issue 4 (October-December 2006)

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Another look at measures of forecast accuracy

Hyndman, R.J., Koehler, A.B.
Pages 679-688
Abstract

We discuss and compare measures of accuracy of univariate time series forecasts. The methods used in the M-competition as well as the M3-competition, and many of the measures recommended by previous authors on this topic, are found to be degenerate in commonly occurring situations. Instead, we propose that the mean absolute scaled error become the standard measure for comparing forecast accuracy across multiple time series.

Keywords: Forecast accuracy, Forecast evaluation, Forecast error measures, M-competition, Mean absolute scaled error
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001
ONLINE SUPPLEMENTS
Data and a worked example in MS-Excel of the computation of the MASE.
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